Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Oryxslayer]

The two Ballot boxes submitted so far from Jerusalem were both from the Arab quarter, so we get this weird, albeit temporary, sight of Jerusalem voting for the joint list.

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously, though, what does happen if Bibi only gets 59 seats?

4th elections in September?

I don't understand almost a single word in Hebrew, but in the live feed from Kan 11, I hear, over and over again, the word "September".

As someone who does understand hebrew, they are talking about LAST September's election.  Now fourth election may happen, but there seems to be a feeling in the air that 'this is it' as far as elections go. Bibi coming so close, and the lasck of funds/votes for a few parties have chastened everyone. Lieb was quite frank when he gave his address. Either someone breaks ranks or Leib picks a side.

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously, though, what does happen if Bibi only gets 59 seats?

4th elections in September?

I don't understand almost a single word in Hebrew, but in the live feed from Kan 11, I hear, over and over again, the word "September".

As someone who does understand hebrew, they are talking about LAST September's election.  Now fourth election may happen, but there seems to be a feeling in the air that 'this is it' as far as elections go. Bibi coming so close, and the lasck of funds/votes for a few parties have chastened everyone. Lieb was quite frank when he gave his address. Either someone breaks ranks or Leib picks a side.

Right, thanks for the clarification. Did Gantz concede the election, or did he said something else? The image was a somber one, though.

Did Gantz speak yet? I was cooking dinners for a few minute there and it looks like he just showed up  and B&W HQ. If he did I missed it.

[Oryxslayer]

As of now Tel Aviv's turnout is 61 percent. And, yes, that's pathetic. Unbelievable, actually.

2/3 Ballot boxes are from the Yaffo side so...

[Oryxslayer]

As of now Tel Aviv's turnout is 61 percent. And, yes, that's pathetic. Unbelievable, actually.

2/3 Ballot boxes are from the Yaffo side so...

Oh okay. That explains that.

Well, there are technically 14 boxes in, but that's the ratio between the Tel-Aviv side and the Yaffo side.

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously, though, what does happen if Bibi only gets 59 seats?

4th elections in September?

I don't understand almost a single word in Hebrew, but in the live feed from Kan 11, I hear, over and over again, the word "September".

As someone who does understand hebrew, they are talking about LAST September's election.  Now fourth election may happen, but there seems to be a feeling in the air that 'this is it' as far as elections go. Bibi coming so close, and the lasck of funds/votes for a few parties have chastened everyone. Lieb was quite frank when he gave his address. Either someone breaks ranks or Leib picks a side.

Right, thanks for the clarification. Did Gantz concede the election, or did he said something else? The image was a somber one, though.

What's to concede? Gantz obviously lost, but so too in a sense did Bibi. Now it's on to forming a government and anyone can do that. If Liberman and the Joint List recommend Gantz to form the government then that will be that.

Right, so everything is still quite open. One can say that maybe Likud and Bibi threw the fireworks a bit too early. However, the Joint List is stronger this time, while YB is weaker. Wouldn't this be a problem in future negotiations, as the Arab coalition could demand stuff that YB, and even KL, think it too much? Like the issue with the Golan Heights?

The joint List's two big issues right now seem to be:

Parochial concerns that stem from a history of govts ignoring Arab communities. Investment in hospitals, schools, etc
Recognition that the Trump Plan is gerrymandering

Both these wouldn't be too hard to do, they just require the political will from Gantz and Leib. Whether that will exists...

[Oryxslayer]

As of now Tel Aviv's turnout is 61 percent. And, yes, that's pathetic. Unbelievable, actually.

2/3 Ballot boxes are from the Yaffo side so...

Oh okay. That explains that.

Mind explaining to an ignorant American.

Well, I'm downloading the excel spreadsheet from the govt site and running it through a bunch of prepared formulas so that I can get maps out ASAP - they are coming when we hit 10%ish in the count. So I can see where the ballot boxes (precincts) that have counted so far are coming from. Of the 14 boxes so far for Tel-Aviv Yaffo, the majority are coming from the Yaffo part. Traditionally, the Arab vote is lower then the national turnout., even after their surge last election. Yaffo is the Arab part of the metro. Arabs appear to have once again surged this election, but it was mainly in the North where they are under threat of getting gerrymandered without their consent. So we would expect Yaffo to have lower turnout then the Tel-Aviv part.

[Oryxslayer]

Once again Bennet and Shaked look poised to significantly underperform their polling. It's like clockwork.

I suspect the reason why Bibi+ has a lot of seats this time is because for the first time in these repeated elections, the right isn't burning votes to the threshold. Otzma is getting less then 1% this time. Last time the right lost 2% to the threshold, and then they lost a net 4% during election 1. So I suspect there were even more transfers going on then normal from the settlers to Likud.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, just scrolling around and clicking on the Ara towns in the north there only appears to be a minor dropoff between them and their Jewish neighbors - The Arabs are usually in the 60s and the Jewish in the 70s. So it certainly appears turnout spiked in that community. There are less notable turnout bumps in communities less 'in danger' of the Trump peace plan.

[Oryxslayer]

This is where we are right now.  The right is ahead like it usually is at this stage, but that is because plenty of Haredi areas, Afula, and Jerusalem are coming in fast like usual. main difference between this and last election is the Arab vote isn't being cross-examined three times, so Arab towns are actually reporting in alongside their Jewish cousins. Tel-Aviv may look large but it's at 14K of an expected 260K, so a long way to go.

Essentially, this is in line with the past two contests.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the vote count so slow in Israel? - is it done at polling stations or are ballot boxes moved around to counting centres?

Thanks!

Hand count paper ballots. Israel, despite being known as the startup nation, is afraid of electric voting.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Jerusalem just dropped a ton at once, and now sites at 80% of election 2, compared to the nations 30%. You can tell because UTJ passed Shas. Jerusalem's only competitor when it comes to size is Tel-Aviv, who sits under 20% of election twos votes for comparison. So, here's the Bibi+ counting bias climaxing, and will likely start ticking down now.

[Oryxslayer]

So the projection continues to have the Likud bloc at 58 seats...

Mind you, every media outlet has it at 59. I averaged the three channels together and you get...Bibi+ with 58. This is because each channel has individual outliers from the other two.

Anyway, here's where the votes have came from so far after the Jerusalem bomb:

[Oryxslayer]

Had to take a nap there, since I am also pulling a long night again for Super Tuesday.

Anyway, since we are at the point of discussing the double envelopes, does anyone know if the Corona booths are treated as double's or are they counted regularly?

[Oryxslayer]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

[Oryxslayer]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

Hmmm, in what way was that one not "accurate"?

Retirement, so the Tories had a greater potential opportunity there than in other seats with a similar lean. It was the first take of the night, and it was the one that stuck when people went to describe the night, even though Workington was probably a better example.

[Oryxslayer]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

Well the most recent vote drop was favorable to all Gantz+ parties, albeit only to the tune of 100K votes total. It's certainly temporary for the List since the double envelopes will be lower their percent by a bit. Not sure about Likud, since the Double Envelopes were previously a B&W group (in total) during election 2, likely meaning this time it will be a wash. The Double Envelopes overall favor the Non-Haredi Jewish parties when compared to the overall percent.

[Oryxslayer]

Swing map from Election 2 with present votes counted. It essentially confirms the pre-results rumors. The biggest cities barely moved. Likud strongholds came out in droves. The Arab towns surged. This was less about voter transfer and swing and more about the Pro-Bibi parties not losing 2%+ to the threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

JL probably got that seat back for the moment from Likud since of these next 10K votes, the Joint list gained ~4.5K votes to 2K each for B&W and Likud.

[Oryxslayer]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Not demographically distinct from B&W therefore much more vulnerable to tactical considerations in a highly polarised environment. Also no serious ideological/policy differences large enough (in that environment; in a different environment things would be different) to mark a clear distinction either. You can see the same process at work on the other side, with Yamina.

But in general we would expect alliances of parties to poll below what those parties might individually, no matter the environment. That is what usually happens. That this is not the case with the Joint List is clearly at least in part a mirroring of the same tactical pressures that are also bloating the Likud and B&W totals.

Let's also not forget the Arab angle of this - Meretz used to have Arab appeal on it's own. When it was close to the threshold, it could pull voters from the Joint List parties out of fear. Now the LGM ticket was far above the threshold, and the Joint List was running a charismatic campaign. Meretz siding with the joint ticket also made it a ticket very dominated by Zionist groups, which when compared to the ascendant Joint List...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235603523364171777

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.


EDIT: B&W has 33, which is a typo. They only allocated 119 seats

[Oryxslayer]

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.

Are you sure? Was not at 36/37 seats in the exit poll?

Bibi+ had 60 in the original exits, now it only has 58. Likud has only dropped by one, but their block did drop from the exits.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235633117542723584

[Oryxslayer]

Another thought may be that certain parties election 2 voters may have gone from voting to the couch,  which would mean that Bibi juiced up Likud turnout even more than the number on the tin.