State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 139939 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2023, 09:36:09 PM »
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2023, 08:17:38 PM »
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2023, 09:09:08 AM »
Quote from: Duke of York on February 08, 2023, 08:51:55 AM

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

I mean these are all normally Safe Blue seats the GOP wouldn't bother with. Sure they said that they would try this time, given the tightness of the chamber, but really this just seems like the 'forgone conclusion landslide' type of outcome.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2023, 09:37:03 PM »


A very red district, and given past votes, not likely to receive much welcome from his "new" party. It appears a move out of desperation: expecting to easily lose the GOP primary based on the county line endorsement loses, he's gonna try a Hail Mary on the other side of the ballot.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2023, 09:23:05 PM »


One would expect the expelled members to be returned with expanded margins of support, right?

Well what about a no-name Dem overperforming by 14 points in a uber-red truly rural east Tennessee seat? Well the previous incumbent did resign in scandal so there is that I guess.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2023, 08:00:22 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2023, 08:31:49 PM by Oryxslayer »


NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how one tabulates the Independents, is next month.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2023, 04:31:24 PM »


This is tonight.  Could easily provide potential fuel for the NY doomers or the NY realists depending on the outcome.  The district itself is kinda a gerrymandered fusion of White Republican, orthodox jew, white liberal,  Chinese, and Hispanic neighborhoods. Also reminder NY is better than in 2020 and modernized their counting laws before 2022, so we will know the winner tonight in all but the tightest results.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #32 on: September 12, 2023, 08:50:10 PM »
Matching Biden, which is what'll probably happen when the 1% of remaining late mail show up, is more than what Dems would want in a political climate that on paper should favor the GOP. In practice though, everything so far has been Dem improvements, which has raised the standards.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2023, 08:07:45 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2023, 08:57:05 PM by Oryxslayer »


You vote on Thursday in Nashville.

EDIT: Dem ended up winning 75% to 22.5%, or an overperformance compared to Biden's 45-point margin.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #34 on: September 19, 2023, 03:22:32 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2023, 04:40:08 PM by Oryxslayer »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 18, 2023, 07:05:13 PM




And a tie is a back on with a matching resignation from the GOP. The November seat is safe D. Interestingly, there now are enough seats up to flip control, but that is kinda meaningless in this massive effectively-tied chamber featuring independents.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #35 on: September 19, 2023, 08:38:22 PM »
The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2023, 09:08:43 PM »


Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising,  the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election.  Essentially,  these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.

Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #37 on: November 07, 2023, 05:07:55 PM »
Just a copy-paste of everything that is up tonight:

- Kentucky HD-93, what should be a safe D seat in and outside Lexington.

- Maine HD-50, a safe D small-town coastal seat. Uncontested Dem.

- Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Worcester. Potentially competitive district covering the rurals west west of Worcester, but including a bit of the city and a number of suburban towns. Dem held but buy a <10% margin in 2022.

- New Hampshire Hillsborough HD-03: A safe D seat in downtown Nashua.

- Rhode Island SD-01, uber-D majority minority seat in downtown Providence.

- South Carolina SD-42, a uber-D plurality African American district in North Charleston.

- Texas HD-02, A safe R district in East Texas.  But because of the jungle primary special election rules, and that there are 5 republican candidates,  there will probably be a runoff.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #38 on: November 07, 2023, 08:02:23 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2023, 09:01:17 PM by Oryxslayer »
Dem won the KY race, something like 57.5-42.5. Nowhere near the blowout expected given the governor race, closer to the national numbers. Perhaps the issue illustrated above left some tarnish.

Dems obviously win the Rhode island seat in a landside, and are the declared winners in the Maine one.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2023, 11:16:11 PM »
TX HD-02 is going to a runoff between two Republicans, as expected.

Dems win 82-18 in SC SD-42




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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2023, 08:32:19 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2023, 08:48:21 PM by Oryxslayer »




I've seen some speculation that DeSantis's plummeting approvals from his shamble of a presidential campaign,  and the recent news about the state GOP chair, are to blame for this.

Though we won't have too speculate too hard, there's another FL special in a much more Dem seat in a few weeks.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #41 on: January 16, 2024, 07:33:06 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on January 16, 2024, 07:23:09 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #42 on: January 23, 2024, 05:29:26 PM »
Potentially more interesting than the NH Presidential Primary are the Two Special legislative elections occurring concurrently. As per usual in the NH state House, the balance is on a knifes edge, but realistically control isn't changing. 3 Independents (2 former D 1 former R) could give Dems control if they so wished at several points since last years Specials, but a 1 seat majority in a 400 man chamber is worth less than then their paychecks.

Up tonight is 2 of 4 vacancies. One D, one R. The upcoming two are D. Again, if D's just hold their own the math is 199 R - 196 D, 3 I. So Dems would like the Flip to nominally put them ahead after March, but that's going to be hard given turnout will probably favor the GOP.

Also up tonight is a D held seat in Connecticut.

NH Coos 1 (GOP Held) Trump+8. Stratford, Northumberland, Lancaster, and Dalton along the Vermont Border. Flip unlikely since the universe of voters will likely be more Republican.

NH Coos 6 (Dem Held) Biden+12. Bunch of ski towns and empty hamlets in the southeast corner of the county. The only time the GOP carried this in the last decade was the two Sununu landslides, so a GOP flip through presidential enthusiasm is also unlikely.

CT HD 155 (Dem Held) Biden+24. White Southern part of West Haven outside of New Haven.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #43 on: January 30, 2024, 07:31:47 PM »
Special election runoff tonight in East Texas between two Republicans. I don't think I can summarize it better than JMC, so..:
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #44 on: January 30, 2024, 09:08:18 PM »
Quote from: Babeuf on January 30, 2024, 09:00:28 PM
The other relevant divide here is that Dutton is backed by Speaker Phelan and the House establishment, whereas Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton and the state party. Kind of a preview of the big upcoming primaries against Phelan and his allies in the House.

Overall vote with all EV no precincts:

Money 3164, Dutton 3120. Apparently in the Blanket Primary Money did about 4 points worse with Precincts compared to EV.

So yes, I would say a good preview for bitter primary divides.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #45 on: January 30, 2024, 10:27:29 PM »
With apparently 100% of the vote in, Dutton Wins.

The EV was Money 3164, Dutton 3120 as stated before.

E-Day precincts were 3702 Dutton, 3551 Money.

So Dutton wins 50.4% to 49.6%. Very tight as to be expected from a proxy for various regional and state interests.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: February 09, 2024, 08:18:03 PM »
Quote from: You've got a friend in Pennsylvania. on February 09, 2024, 07:55:56 PM
There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140

Every state house race in PA determines control lol. This is a rather Dem leaning seat adjacent to Levittown and Trenton.

There's quite a few specials up on Tuesday. In addition to NY03, there is:

- Oklahoma HD39, what should be a safe R hold outside OKC.

- Georgia HD125 and SD30, both should be safe R holds. The house seat is in the suburbs north of Augusta,  the senate seat in the exurbs southwest of Atlanta. Both didn't even have Dem challengers in 2022. Though there may be runoffs since there is a large number of Republicans in each race.

- NY HD77, should be a safe D hold in the Bronx.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #47 on: February 13, 2024, 07:58:56 PM »
Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #48 on: February 13, 2024, 08:29:59 PM »
Dem currently ahead in the Oklahoma race as well 229-198-10.

Obviously all EV and a small total with 0 precents reporting.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2024, 09:01:41 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2024, 09:10:12 PM by Oryxslayer »
GA SD 30 is done:

Timothy J. Bearden (Rep) 4,548, 58.87%,

Ashley Kecskes Godwin (Dem) 1,327, 17.18%

Robert ''Bob'' Smith (Rep) 989,  12.80%

Renae Bell (Rep) 862, 11.16%

Bearden wins outright.

Also the GOP has take a confident lead in their Oklahoma defense after some precincts reported. 51-45
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