State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The special election win is cool and all but Florida is still Florida.

It's a Trump state through and through and his voters will show up for him in November.

Yeah I don't think anyone disputes that, but it is a counter to the "Dems in disarray" narrative.

[It’s so Joever]

Red avatars are cheering a slight underperformance of Biden on here.

[ajc0918]

Yes, the Dem in Florida underperformed Biden but relative to the partisan composition of the special election he overperformed. In this special election the electorate was 10% more Republican than in 2020, and yet the Democratic candidate only underperformed Biden by ~2.3 points. This is a testament of getting friendly NPAs out to vote.




https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-150-democrats-flip-fl-house

[heatcharger]

The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.

Keep telling yourself that lol.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1747419128284004658

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.

Keep telling yourself that lol.

Even if Biden improves in Florida, he probably will still do worse in the rest of the nation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Red avatars are cheering a slight underperformance of Biden on here.

It's the Florida bell curve. The last time we were able to celebrate any election in Florida was when the two Miami districts flipped Democrat for one term back in 2018.

The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.

Yeah, the guy who is bragging about overturning Roe V. Wade won't have a problem.

[Oryxslayer]

Potentially more interesting than the NH Presidential Primary are the Two Special legislative elections occurring concurrently. As per usual in the NH state House, the balance is on a knifes edge, but realistically control isn't changing. 3 Independents (2 former D 1 former R) could give Dems control if they so wished at several points since last years Specials, but a 1 seat majority in a 400 man chamber is worth less than then their paychecks.

Up tonight is 2 of 4 vacancies. One D, one R. The upcoming two are D. Again, if D's just hold their own the math is 199 R - 196 D, 3 I. So Dems would like the Flip to nominally put them ahead after March, but that's going to be hard given turnout will probably favor the GOP.

Also up tonight is a D held seat in Connecticut.

NH Coos 1 (GOP Held) Trump+8. Stratford, Northumberland, Lancaster, and Dalton along the Vermont Border. Flip unlikely since the universe of voters will likely be more Republican.

NH Coos 6 (Dem Held) Biden+12. Bunch of ski towns and empty hamlets in the southeast corner of the county. The only time the GOP carried this in the last decade was the two Sununu landslides, so a GOP flip through presidential enthusiasm is also unlikely.

CT HD 155 (Dem Held) Biden+24. White Southern part of West Haven outside of New Haven.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Only on this forum would people spin a flip as bad news for the Democrats. You all have a worse case of Dems in Disarray syndrome than Politico.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems held onto CT HD 155 by 32 points, an 8-point improvement from Biden '20.

Not sure about the status of the NH races.

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

[Vosem]

Dems held onto CT HD 155 by 32 points, an 8-point improvement from Biden '20.

Not sure about the status of the NH races.

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

Notably, the Democratic victory in Connecticut was 54-22, with an independent winning 21%.

Would theoretically be a very impressive victory for the GOP in New Hampshire but obviously it's fully explained by the circumstances.

[Atlas Force]

The independent in the Connecticut race, Edward O’Brien, is the former mayor of West Haven (the previous representative for this district is the current mayor, her resigning to take that office is why there was a special in the first place). O’Brien was a Democrat while he was mayor - impressive that the actual Dem candidate overperformed Biden even with the vote split.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

especially because NH's districts are so small. Easily could be a question of personal or local connections for a specific candidate more than anything else.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Special election incoming in Georgia HD-139:

Georgia Rep. Richard Smith, who led the powerful House Rules Committee that set the agenda for votes in the state House, has died suddenly at age 78 after fighting the flu.

Smith, a Republican from Columbus, was known for his steady leadership as a close ally to both current House Speaker Jon Burns and his predecessor, House Speaker David Ralston.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-rep-richard-smith-chairman-of-house-rules-committee-dies/KNNTEZ5ZZVBNFGFSWHJGFHTKKA/

And a weird bit:

Three Rules chairman have died in office in recent years: Smith, state Rep. Jay Powell in 2019, and state Rep. John Meadows in 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

Special election runoff tonight in East Texas between two Republicans. I don't think I can summarize it better than JMC, so..:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1752487091194204658?t=B7ZZgTDVqMy8-qmFfnmd...

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1752487863407587524?t=Im47uuqbdV7Kg_e2Jnr2...

[Babeuf]

The other relevant divide here is that Dutton is backed by Speaker Phelan and the House establishment, whereas Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton and the state party. Kind of a preview of the big upcoming primaries against Phelan and his allies in the House.

[Oryxslayer]

The other relevant divide here is that Dutton is backed by Speaker Phelan and the House establishment, whereas Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton and the state party. Kind of a preview of the big upcoming primaries against Phelan and his allies in the House.

Overall vote with all EV no precincts:

Money 3164, Dutton 3120. Apparently in the Blanket Primary Money did about 4 points worse with Precincts compared to EV.

So yes, I would say a good preview for bitter primary divides.

[Oryxslayer]

With apparently 100% of the vote in, Dutton Wins.

The EV was Money 3164, Dutton 3120 as stated before.

E-Day precincts were 3702 Dutton, 3551 Money.

So Dutton wins 50.4% to 49.6%. Very tight as to be expected from a proxy for various regional and state interests.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Special election runoff tonight in East Texas between two Republicans. I don't think I can summarize it better than JMC, so..:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1752487091194204658?t=B7ZZgTDVqMy8-qmFfnmd...

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1752487863407587524?t=Im47uuqbdV7Kg_e2Jnr2...

I know there's been some infighting in the TX GOP with many rural members opposing certain aspects of Abbott's agenda like vouchers that would hurt their local schools and such. Is the divide in this race just 100% pro-Abbott vs disagreeing with Abbott on certain issues.

[progressive85]

There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140

[Oryxslayer]

There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140

Every state house race in PA determines control lol. This is a rather Dem leaning seat adjacent to Levittown and Trenton.

There's quite a few specials up on Tuesday. In addition to NY03, there is:

- Oklahoma HD39, what should be a safe R hold outside OKC.

- Georgia HD125 and SD30, both should be safe R holds. The house seat is in the suburbs north of Augusta,  the senate seat in the exurbs southwest of Atlanta. Both didn't even have Dem challengers in 2022. Though there may be runoffs since there is a large number of Republicans in each race.

- NY HD77, should be a safe D hold in the Bronx.

[progressive85]

There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140

Every state house race in PA determines control lol. This is a rather Dem leaning seat adjacent to Levittown and Trenton.

There's quite a few specials up on Tuesday. In addition to NY03, there is:

- Oklahoma HD39, what should be a safe R hold outside OKC.

- Georgia HD125 and SD30, both should be safe R holds. The house seat is in the suburbs north of Augusta,  the senate seat in the exurbs southwest of Atlanta. Both didn't even have Dem challengers in 2022. Though there may be runoffs since there is a large number of Republicans in each race.

- NY HD77, should be a safe D hold in the Bronx.

I forgot about NY 3 on Tuesday too... thank u

Yes, just to clarify for everyone.  In the PA House, the parties are basically tied so that any vacancy (and there have been a few since the 2022 election) and PA House is one of those key swing chambers.  Republicans were thought to be the favorites but Democrats, under the new maps, did much better than anyone thought and took an unexpected majority.

So every single vacancy in PA matters because it could possibly tip control.

[wbrocks67]

We could be looking at an overperformance for PA HD140 on Tuesday vs. 2020 prez, since it's pretty blue downballot (McCaffery won by 22 last year)

2016 prez: Clinton +10
2020 prez: Biden +10
2022 senate: Fetterman +16
2022 congressional: Fitzpatrick +3
2023 Supreme Court: McCaffery +22

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChiCyph80/status/1757449522643382281