State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Nyvin]

Wow, the Democrat won BIG with NPA's.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1747413155603525786

Impressive comeback for the Dem in FL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From DDHQ:

Tom Keen   DEM   11,376   
51.3%

Erika Booth   GOP   10,778   
48.7%

>99% est. reporting

[Roll Roons]

I suppose Riverwalk deserves his accolades.

[Minnesota Mike]

Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

[Ferguson97]

Nikki Fried is magic

[DrScholl]

It helps when your opponent is a Moms for Liberty idiot.

[Atlas Force]

As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.

“Tom Keen” is also the name of a character in the show The Blacklist

[Oryxslayer]

Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/MaxwellFrostFL/status/1747413965112504757

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A special election in a state likely to trend left in 2024 doesn't mean much. The overall special election picture since November has been good for Republicans.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.

No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nice, and with a turnout disadvantage.

[Minnesota Mike]

Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.

No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.

I was talking about the voter registration of the actual voters in this special election, which is readily available in real time on Florida counties websites. There were over 1,000 more registered Republicans voting than Democrats. "Twitter election experts" were all over these stats and predicting an easy Republican win.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.

No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.

I was talking about the voter registration of the actual voters in this special election, which is readily available in real time on Florida counties websites. There were over 1,000 more registered Republicans voting than Democrats. "Twitter election experts" were all over these stats and predicting an easy Republican win.

Rs went from a 100k registration deficit to a 700k registration advantage in Florida in the last 3 years. This doesn't reflect the reality of how the state actually shifted. Thus, Ds are winning most the NPAs in Florida right now.

There have been certain posters who keep talking about how the massive Republican gain in registration in Florida means that the state has shifted right a lot. I have consistently pushed back on this for the last few months.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose one copium point the Republicans could make is turnout was still fairly low, it was only about 37% of 2022's. But that's not really that bad for a January special, and kind of destroys any narrative that Democrats are demoralized.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

[wbrocks67]

Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

It's not though? They had the Jacksonville Mayoral race and another special in December that were both really great for them in the last few months.

This is a Biden +5/DeSantis +12 district. To act as if a D winning by 3% here, when they were also outspent 5:1 is anything but a great performance would be completely wrong.

Most stunning thing here is how they likely won Indies by huge margins. Once again hard to matchup with polls that show Indies going for double digits nationally to Trump.

Oh and last thing, basically ignore everyone who tries to forecast FL races on Twitter during the day. Nearly everyone got it wrong.

[Devils30]

Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

It's not though? They had the Jacksonville Mayoral race and another special in December that were both really great for them in the last few months.

This is a Biden +5/DeSantis +12 district. To act as if a D winning by 3% here, when they were also outspent 5:1 is anything but a great performance would be completely wrong.

Most stunning thing here is how they likely won Indies by huge margins. Once again hard to matchup with polls that show Indies going for double digits nationally to Trump.

Oh and last thing, basically ignore everyone who tries to forecast FL races on Twitter during the day. Nearly everyone got it wrong.

I don't think Dems are going to slip as much in Orlando, Duval, Pinellas counties compared to Dade, Palm Beach and areas clearly trending away from them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My take on this is that Democrats' only chance to have a future in Florida is exclusively through special elections. I'll take it, but I am still certain that Florida is not worth large-scale investment by Democrats in the future.

[Mr. Matt]

As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.

This one won 34 years to the day the original Tom Kean left office.

[Person Man]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

[wbrocks67]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

[Person Man]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.

538 has the partisan lean of the seat as D+1, so yes this would be a 2% overperformance.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The special election win is cool and all but Florida is still Florida.

It's a Trump state through and through and his voters will show up for him in November.