New PA Maps In Effect

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just going to post my response from the last PA thread, which was in responce to a DKE map. I will post analysis afterwards.

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In response to two other things here - Erie and Allegheny. A Erie based seat that slid down the western boarder of PA was R+1 in 2008, when Obama barely won it. Since then, the counties south of Erie moved right at light speed - even before Trump. In 2016, Erie caught up with the neighbours. At best right now - R+6. At worst - R+10.

Allegheny meanwhile is forced under a fair map into a dem pack. The prime reason is simple - the county lacks the pop and needs to grab a neighbour if it wants a second seat. However all the bordering counties are Titanium R. So, in order to get a seat that is at least competative, the Allegheny part needs to be very dem - no? The only way such a cut comes about is if the map is a full on dem gerrymander, and Pittsburgh is used to pack not only the Republican leaning suburbs to the north, but also more mixed ares to the west. Best a fair map could do around here is R+6, however I tend to prefer not having a second Allegheny seat in my maps to minimize cuts elsewhere.

I'm also skeptical of Cohns map largely because he cuts the Lackawanna+Luzure+Monroe pairing. That district is 100% perfect, not needing cuts to any other counties. It is entirely made up of Union/WWC small towns in the Northeast corner. It is a perfect community of interest. Why the hell would ya cut it?

Overall, the average new PA map sees: 1 dem gain in delaware, the Chester and Bucks seats remain competitive, and Allentown becomes more competitive. Its hard to see dems ever gain a majority here, unless they win loaner seats in central PA that are currently open.


Something else that should be said is that a entirely separate case on PAs congressional maps was thrown out by the District court last week. Whether this was simply more conservative judges, or an understanding that this case, and the Wisconsin case before the supreme court made that one redundant, is a question that I don't know the answer to.

[Oryxslayer]

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No, this is far from perfect. While these 3 Counties combined are just right for a Congressional District, combining these forces a different district to have an awful shape. To the North and East, Pike, Wayne, and Susquehanna Counties must then be put together, and then the District must be extended Southward and Westward in a way that creates a very awkward Horseshoe shape.

Eh to each their own - I have always liked that district. It keeps the Susquehanna valley community of interest together and keeps the NYC/NJ exurban Pike area out of a WWC based seat. Plus the fact that it spirals (even as it keeps counties and communities whole) also makes sense since this is a 'T' seat - the Right arm of the T needs to reach the perpendicular part eventually. To each their own though. I like to minimize county cuts and keeping communities intact, you might like  nice lines on a map - when you don't consider county lines ofc.

[Oryxslayer]

Look at this fresh hell...

This is where we're headed in the future if Kennedy doesn't do the right thing.

there is literally no doubt that this would be struck down by courts

Who made this?!

Well Cohn had it in the NYT piece as a strawman to show how harsh the Pubs could be with the map. However, if I was to guess who made it, it was probably Dave Wasserman since he and 538 are coming out with a bunch of scenarios in all 50 states soon. On the other hand, perhaps I am blind, and can't see a author on the page.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone post the current map with a reasonable map?

I see a fair map might make the state 9-9, what is it now?

A fair map would probably end up 8D-10R at best in a neutral year. Unfortunately there is a lot of Democrat self-packing in the cities.

Unless they do what Illinois did which was to unpack the city to mitigate the Democratic self-packing disadvantage (which is what they should do).

Never use Madigan's lines as a ideal. Never.

As I have said before, a fair map would be around:

4 Titanium D (>D+12), 1 Solid D (~D+7), 4 Tossup (D+2 - R+2), 2 Solid R (R+6 - R+8) 7 Titanium R (>R+12)

[Oryxslayer]

Victory for America!

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Well, lets see what happens next - team R won't take this lying down. I will post a PA map later then...

[Oryxslayer]

Court gave them 25 days to draw a new map.

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How many days was Florida given? And they ended up having to adopt the Women Voters map with slight changes.

[Oryxslayer]

Would Cartwright be able to hold his seat if that dave wasserman non partisan map thingy turns out to be the new map?

The best district for Cartwright would be Luzurne + Lakwanna + Monroe, which is ~500 under the 2010 pop count. This seat still voted for Trump by two points less then the current PA-17, and has a CPVI a fraction more democratic then 0, rather then the current R+1. If this district doesn't come into being then there is something wrong.

Also Nate Cohn's map cuts Luzurne in favor of Pike and the Eastern counties, but we just heard from the court that such a cut may no longer be legal, so that map might be voided.

[Oryxslayer]

Another map by Stephen Wolff.

So it would be like:

5 safe D (PA-01, PA-02, PA-07, PA-13, PA-14)
1 lean D (PA-06)
3 toss up (PA-08, PA-15, PA-17)
1 lean R (PA-12)
2 likely R (PA-03, PA-11)
6 safe R (PA-04, PA-05, PA-09, PA-10, PA-16, PA-18)

Considering how badly Democrats are distributed in PA, this would be a pretty decent map for them. This would be ratings for generic candidates by the way, so no doubt Cartwright would move the 17th toward the Dems.

However it cuts lets see... 15 counties, and probably a philly ward or two judging from a distance. What with the court ordering that these things be considered, this map is probably out of the equation.

[Oryxslayer]

In all honesty, this probably doesn't change the midterms much, as people have pointed out. Democrats will gain PA-07 and probably PA-06, though gaining 2 seats was likely the most common result after 2018. I consider this more of a pro-democracy win than pro-democrat, tbh.

Wat? Pa-15 is Open, and currently is lean/tilt R at R+4. It probably becomes a easy dem pickup once it becomes a tight R+1/R+0 PVI.

[Oryxslayer]

So here is my PA map. I made it before the court released their decision, so I had to go back to the drawing table in Montgomery since I had split a town between PA-01 and PA-08 to make things more pleasing. I effect though, the courts orders not to split counties and lower level geographic jurisdictions boost this maps  legitimacy, since I only cut 7 counties and 0 lower level authorities. Seven counties is quite close to the minimum cut, I once got it down to 6 by removing the cut in Beaver. The Resulting lines though were horrendous, with PA-18 crawling up the side of the state, so I just did away with it. Using 2010 numbers, 0.5% deviation from PA's ideal count of 705,688 is 3,528.

SEPA

PA-01: 71.2% Obama, 28% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+22.72

PA-02: 89% Obama, 10.6% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+38.61 / 2010 VAP 53.2% Black

PA-06: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+1.45

PA-07: 66.8% Obama, 32.4% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+16.29

PA-08: 54% Obama, 45% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+.63

PA-13: 60.3% Obama, 38.9% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+7.7

PA-15: 55.9% Obama, 42.8% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+.71

PA-16: 45% Obama, 54% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+11.33

Greater SEPA is the area that changes the most under a fair plan, due to the intricacies of PA-06 and PA-07. The 7th becomes a tight seat based around Delaware, and the 6th becomes based around Chester. The 16th is now based around Lancaster, the 13th is now a clear Montgomery seat, the 8th remains a Bucks seat, and the 15th recedes into the Lehigh valley. The 7th becomes a safe dem pickup, the 6th becomes a D leaning swing seat, and the 8th/15th become more competitive.

What is interesting is what happens to Dem Incumbents. Back in 2010, realizing that the Pubs were going to draw whatever map they liked, Brady got them to draw the three SEPA dem seats as three seats for philly dems. For himself though, Brady got a seat that was recially divided so he couldn't be primaried, and hyperdemocratic so he couldn't lose. Due to me avoiding cutting any Philly wards, PA-07  now includes Brady's seat. There are still 3 Philly Dems, but now Brady is the one reaching outwards. Boyle and Evens remain tight in Philly, an Brady still has a seat matching his specifics. Too dem for him to lose, too white for him to be primaried.

Central

PA-04: 39.9% Obama, 59.1% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+17.36

PA-05: 43.5% Obama, 55.1% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+16.24

PA-09: 39.3% Obama, 59.2% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+21.45

PA-10: 43.1% Obama, 55.6% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+16.87

PA-11: 45.7% Obama, 53.2% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+9.07

PA-17: 57.6% Obama, 41.4% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+.26

As I have stated many times before, a redrawn PA-17 moves a few points to the left. Even in the Wayne+Pike scenario, the seat still moves to a 0 PVI from R+1. Schuylkill really is an anchor on the seat. The others are all still safe R, and based out of the 'T.' State College is drowned out by its surroundings. Harrisburg is in a similar situation, however the seat is open presently, and could be a Likely R rating.

West

PA-03: Obama 51.4%, McCain 47.3% / '12-'16 PVI R+6.95

PA-12: Obama 43.3%, McCain 55.8% / '12-'16 PVI R+10.55

PA-14: Obama 66.4%, McCain 32.6% / '12-'16 PVI D+16.6

PA-18: Obama 47%, McCain 51.8% / '12-'16 PVI R+9.8

Overall, this region doesn't see much change, due to its more midwestern political geography. Democrats have a huge following in PA and Allegheny, however they lack a modern coalition. This kinda forces the Dem pack. PA-03 has moved to the right since Trump, though is less Republican than presently. The 12th and the 18th both remain Solidly R, though notably the 18th becomes 1 point less Republican then presently. The 14th is still safe dem.

Points of Contention

Northeast

The main tradeoff here is a subjectively better looking district for an extra cut on the map. The seat remains marginally Democratic, and the trade is some formerly democratic territory and Republican Rural towns for two historically Republican counties. I don't like cuts, but some people don't like the presented PA-10.

Pittsburgh

This one I think should be less controversial then the Northeast. The decision here is a scenario where we avoid the second cut in Allegheny and keeps a neat PA-12. This 12th is also a little more democratic, at R+7. The downside however is that this forces another cut, this time with PA-18. If not Westmoreland, then the cut would have to happen elsewhere. The seats don't become any more competitive, and the other seats get more ugly.

Also I ignored the Beaver paring because that scenario still needed an extra cut into Westmoreland or Butler to reach the pop for two seats.

Philadelphia Sub-Metros

As I have discussed elsewhere, these three counties have nearly perfect pop for two seats, and the 20K they are over by fits neatly in the other PA seats. The problem with this though, is that there are 3 counties for 2 seats. So, two counties get seats, the other gets demolished. The one I prefer with the cutting of Berks has a PVI of ~D+1, the second has a R+.09, or effectively 0, and the third has a PVI of R+1.9. In all these scenarios the 16th would remain Safe R with a PVI around or above R+10. Of these, the second I tend to like the least, since the 16th right now is a Lancaster seat. It also would create a extra cut due to the other SEPA seats needing to grab their 20K. On the surface, Republicans like the Third, Dems like the First. An additional factor though for me is that the third cracks the Phili Metro, while the the first only destroys the Reading minor metro.  This is where opinions and preferences matter.


Of the three above scenarios, of course the lines in the alternate slides could change. I created them only the fly, whereas the lines I presented in the full map I spent time working on. However, I tried to capture the theme of each scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

Krazen is R-PA. Was that statements wording coincidence? I think not!

[Oryxslayer]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

A "power grab" is drawing fair maps that split as few counties as possible....as opposed to the travesty that PA currently has for a congressional map?   

I say "HA!"

I know right, sounds just like Krazen, who is from Pennsylvania...

[Oryxslayer]

Also, as a follow up to my main post ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282416.msg6022122#msg6022122 ), here is an alternate Pittsburgh area map layout. This version is A: more beneficial to Democrats, and B: doesn't cut any extra counties, so the total counties cut still remains at 7. That said, I personally consider the pairing of the Republican Suburbs north of Pittsburgh with the city a Dem Gerry, so I probably won't use it in the future. But, here is the map.

There are a couple big changes going on here. First off PA-03 moves from R+7 on the first map to R+5 on this map. The county cut that has to happen to the Third moves from beaver to Crawford, where it follows the town and river lines. PA-09 Remains Safe R, though the Open seat Primary now moves north. Under this map, it is likely that Kelly from PA-03 runs here, and vacates PA-03 since his home is in Butler.

Allegheny is where the real action is though. PA-14 moves from around D+15 on both my master map and the current map to about D+9.25. It now, as previously mentioned, takes in the more Republican North, in exchange for the more Dem-Leaning/Marginal South. The Exchange helps out PA-18 become way more democratic. Instead of being around R+10, it moves to a marginal R+.74. Obama won here in 2008, but I doubt Clinton did. Conner Lamb probably is the frontrunner for this seat in November, even if he looses the special.
PA-12 now takes in most of the Southern Corner along with stretching out to collect the rest of Appalachia. It is around R+17.

[Oryxslayer]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

Yeah this is probably a pub map that I could see the legislature passing and Wolf vetoing. But, the main reason that I have a problem with it is cuts. The court said that you should not cut counties or lower jurisdictions at all unless for pop equity. On a smaller level, this probably renders your 4th and 17th illegal, since they are cutting multiple counties for seemingly more reasons then pop. In a broad sense, a map with 11 county cuts, several ward cuts in Philly, and I do believe multiple township cuts elsewhere (only guessing) has no chance of passing, especially when I can get away with 7 county cuts.

With a 5-2 Democratic majority on the court, I see little way a map like this passes. But, like your r-gerryed US in the geography and demographics tab, it is a nice exercise.

[Oryxslayer]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?

Old. Court specified this. Makes sense, if it was to be held under new lines, partisans on both sides would be looking for ways to change the map in that area to solely influence the winner.

[Oryxslayer]

What do you all use to make your maps?

Daves Redistricting App. I only get it to work on internet explorer though. It wont work on chrome, and im not sure about firefox

Firefox extended release for me. Faster then IE, and has automatically a higher memory quota.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my quick take on it:



Just a few tidbits-

PA-6:  The Republicans will obviously push to have the Chester district go west into Lancaster, while the Democrats will want to go north into Reading/Berks.   I'm assuming between the courts and Wolf the Democrats will probably prevail on this one.

PA-8: 95% sure this ends up mostly unchanged and remains mostly a tossup district.

PA-12:  I know Butler matches with Allegheny better to make two districts, but that leaves you with Beaver in an incredibly odd spot with either a wrap around with PA-18 or a reach southward from PA-3.   I decided it's better to put Allegheny with Beaver since the difference between Beaver/Butler is only like ~13k people, which can easily be made up elsewhere.

PA-17:  Cartwright actually has a good chance to benefit from all this just due to how picture perfectly Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties form a district with hardly any split needed, and all linked together with highways.   The district matches what the SCoPA was directing almost exactly.   This district actually moves slightly more than one PVI to the left from where it is now.

PA-15:  This one isn't quite as good as PA-17, but still Lehigh, Northampton, and most of Carbon form about as good of a compact, neat district as you can expect, and has almost exactly what the court is asking for with their order.

I kinda dislike what PA-10 turned into ("the leftovers" district) but PA-17 is just too beautiful to pass up.

Here's close up of SEPA:




SWPA:



2012/2016 PVI's:

PA-1: D+27.35  (37.1% AA)

PA-2: D+41.06 (52.5% AA)

PA-3: R+7.23

PA-4: R+17.39

PA-5: R+16.92

PA-6: D+1.71

PA-7: D+11.53

PA-8: R+1.17

PA-9: R+22.07

PA-10: R+17.03

PA-11: R+8.04

PA-12: R+3.95

PA-13: D+8.33

PA-14: D+13.72

PA-15: R+0.71

PA-16: R+11.81

PA-17: D+0.26

PA-18: R+13.91

5D - 9R - 4s


I also attempted my best to keep this as "least change" as possible (except obviously SEPA).   The key points for the redistricting will be PA-6 going north or west, PA-15 including all or part of Northampton, and probably PA-17 having all or part of Luzerne.    Other than that not much seems to matter if county lines are respected enough.

That’s a great map, it’s clear, compact, largely county-based, and gives both parties a fair chance. I really hope that SCOTUS doesn’t screw it up, and that something like this can be implemented.

Its pretty much my map from page five. This isn't a bad thing though, Pennsylvania has a whole lot of districts that more or less draw themselves, so all fair maps are going to be reasonably similar. The difference between this map and my previous one is that this map places priority on keeping the current districts located reasonably close to their current iterations over county cuts, and my map did the opposite. This map cuts 12 counties, but each district is based in its former location. My two maps only cut 7 counties each, but saw the 9th/12th/18th migrate around a bit as I undid the current map. That is tradeoffs.

Only downside of this map I can see is that the court ordered as few county cuts as possible, and little to now lower division cuts (I'm fairly sure your map cuts philly wards, but that can be fixed). So, if I was the court, I would select my map, even with the moving districts, since it cuts less counties - as per their orders.

[Oryxslayer]

How exactly did the court vote in the instance of Florida? And who was for/against the hold?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm wondering if Alito was for/against the Florida case, I can't find a source on how the members voted. If Alito was against the Florida vase, then he simply might be doing this out of partisanship, even though it will fail. If Alito was for the Florida case, then he could be thinking that the Wisconsin case will be the decider here rather than this case.

[Oryxslayer]

United States Supreme Court told the PA GOP to F Off!

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I just read on twitter, that Alito himself denied the stay

If there is ever a political personification of a middle finger...

[Oryxslayer]

Also here is my version of a current working copy my map:

A couple minor changes to put incumbents in their seats, and a rework of the Pennsylvania Wilds seats that better accommodates road access - along with keeping Altoona and Johnstown together.

Also, does anyone know if there is a place to submit plans? I know in the Florida case there was, and in 2010 loads of states at least presented the image of a submission bar for citizen drawn maps. I would prefer not simply searching and sending emails to various plaintiffs, but I would like the report that I am compiling to be seen...

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans in the state legislature now have 10 days to draw a new map and Governor Wolf said he will veto any new gerrymander.

Come on Wolf don't cave.

The main fear is Republicans working with machine Democrats in Philly to ensure that Philly keeps 3 seats, at the expense of a fair map.

That is a valid fear, except with Brady retiring there is no reason to protect him.

Also, the court ordered cut minimization, so districts that spiral out of the city are a no-go.

[Oryxslayer]

The court order mentions several measurements of compactness - things like Roeck, Swartzenberg, etc. Anyone know how to calculate these?

[Oryxslayer]

Does this help Matt Cartwright?

He will almost certainly get a Scranton-centric district which will be more Democratic than his current one, so basically yes.

As I have said many times... Lakawanna + Luzurne + Monore is 1 perfect seat. This seat voted 2 points less for trump than the current PA-17, and is a EVEN seat rather than R+1. The only downside now is the court has announced some compactness tests, which may mean the ensuing PA-10 formed by this seat is illegal.

[Oryxslayer]

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Since SCOTUS denied the stay, isn't that the end of it?  Or could they petition for a stay on some other grounds?

It's Pennsylvania Republicans, I'm sure next stop is The Hague

Before the stay they:

Denied precinct and voter data to the court -  this was a formality, they simply went to the dems. Hell, we use DRA which has similar, albeit old data. 

Called upon one and potentially two of the Dem judges to recuse themselves due to statements made during their judicial campaigns.

Generally called the court order illegal whenever possible.

With only ten days on the clock, one would think that they would refuse to pass any map, and instead dig in their heals and try to deny the court a sense of legitimacy.