AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm surprised Flake is putting himself out on such a limb. He's doubling down on his criticism of Trump by releasing this book. Either he thinks of himself as making a sacrifice for the better of his party, or he doesn't care.

Sinema seems like a good fit for Arizona at-large. She's young and from a semi-competitive district.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sinema may not have the most progressive voting record, but what Bernie bros are forgetting is that this is Arizona, a state that Trump still won by 3% and one of the last statewide elected Democrats (Napolitano) was very moderate. I expect Sinema to not run as a lesbian atheist, but someone who just so happens to be a lesbian atheist. The story of her upbringing could be a big asset that has widespread appeal.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Ward is giving me Tea Party flashbacks.

Anyways.. confirmation of the long-standing theory that Trump will primary opponents within the Republican party. With Flake, it looks to be successful. I'm sure Flake is less popular with conservatives than he is with moderates, one of McCain's problems. A 51-40 win for John McCain is one thing; replicating that success with Jeff Flake, who is significantly less popular and less established, could seriously lead to Sen. Ward. Which, to be fair, is something I like.

A PPP poll in May 2016 - three months before the primary - showed Ward with 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings. Compared to Flake, that could be enough.

Trump is also holding a rally in Arizona soon where he will probably make this more official. Ward'll be there, he'll pardon Arpaio, the whole gang.

Im not sure if this is an actual endorsement. The RNC and mcconnel(if the relationship brightens) will convince him to walk back on the comments.

As far as Arpaio goes, If trump actually pardons this man he will loose Maricopa county in 2020 thus loosing AZ, that man is so unpopular. The AZ state party already plans to tie every republican they can to the former sheriff the same way the GOP does to Pelosi(they should have done this in '16 but I assume they wanted to wait until they knew for sure he was unpopular the double digit victory confirmed it), I think it will be quite effective in turning the tides in AZ

And losing Maricopa County spells doom for a Republican statewide in AZ. Democrats don't even need to win Maricopa to win statewide. I'm tempted to say this race is now a tossup., but Ward could still be favored in a general.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Trump goes all out today and pardons Arpaio and endorses Kelli Ward (who might be at the rally as well), he could make 2018 a disaster for the AZ GOP, all to feed his ego. Ducey might not even be safe.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'd like to point out that Gillibrand started as a blue dog and has shifted much more left ever since becoming Senator of New York. I only say that because I imagine Sinema having the similar trajectory.

Gillibrand was moderate to represent her moderate district and became progressive to represent her new constituents.

Sinema is moderate to represent her somewhat moderate district, I would likely see her shift even more to the right as a senator. I could see her being up there with Heitkamp.

Although Progressive Punch, however reliable that is, rates Sinema as 37% progressive and the 2nd most conservative house dem, while rating Heitkamp at 57% so I suppose she does have room to drift left?

I'm not sure if she'd drift to the left if she were elected statewide. She's already in a fairly safe D district. I think she'd be somewhere between Michael Bennett and Angus King in terms of a voting record.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Flake For Senate twitter page is the funniest thing on the internet tonight. You can tell they are really reeeaacching to label Sinema as out of touch and a socialist. Both will fail considering Sinema lived in an abandoned gas station while Flakes upbringing is nothing of the sort. Socialist label will fail bc Sinema has been endorsed by the chamber of commerce in the past.

It's starting to look like many of the traditional right wing attacks/talking points won't work on Sinema

Cant call her a Pelosi minion
Or a socialist
Or out of touch with the middle class

Even when it's not true, it's remarkable that one of the GOP's go-to talking points has been so effective. My best guess is that the Democrats they've accused of being "out of touch" just haven't come up with good responses to counter that narrative.

That being said, Sinema would be hard to label as that, and she also seems to be a notch above a typical Democratic candidate on the campaigning side. And Flake doesn't seem like the kind who would stoop to full identity politics in order the drive out the base.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Not surprised. Flake looked like he was about to be the next Richard Luger. I don't think this changes any of the dynamics though. Ward shouldn't be underestimated in the primary.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

Do you need to really need to ask?

This is what US politics has devolved into. If you speak out against bad conduct by the party's figurehead, you're shunned by the noisy fringe of the party, regardless of how often you vote with that figurehead.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

No, you clearly do not.

[PragmaticPopulist]

ahugecat is filling the role EnglishPete and Seriously? have left behind. He is a righteous Christian warrior fighting against the tyranny of the left.

It's more enjoyable for everyone when it's people like you doing it tho

^^^For real tho, do it for us, Santander.

No it gets my d*** hard to hear people from Kentucky not be republican hacks

You hear that Santander? He's coming for your booty unless you go into hack mode.

Santander should just rename himself DINO San if he goes all out hack.