Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 2-3, 1117 adults including 955 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-2)

Impeach Trump? Yes 44 (-3), No 42 (+2)


RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Impeach Trump? Yes 45 (-2), No 45 (+3)


Most pollsters take a break around holidays (it's harder to poll people then), so the recent polling drought should be ending soon now that Thanksgiving is over.

Concerning numbers on impeachment, but interesting that it comes with no Trump approval bounce.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ernst is very popular like Reynolds in Iowa, Trump is gonna win Iowa and Ohio again.

Much the same was said of Blanche Lincoln in late 2009. Just saying.

Iowa did not just trend 19 points to the left.

[Bidenworth2020]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 5-7, 1500 adults including 1185 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (+1), No 41 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 51 (-1), No 44 (+1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (-1), No 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (-2), R 40 (nc)

Yougov really stands out in its variation between adults and RV, particularly in the swings between the groups.

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

[Bidenworth2020]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

Interesting, I wonder if his taking the virus more seriously is boosting his approval a bit (though not much, clearly)

I wouldn't read too much into it.  That's normal noise-level variation for this poll.

I am not familiar with this particular tracking poll. Does it often have misleading static?

[Bidenworth2020]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)

[Bidenworth2020]

Has this been uploaded? I found it on the 538 site. I compared it to the last YouGov poll, which admittedly is a different poll and potentially has a different methodology.

YouGov (March 17-19)

Approve- 47% (+3)
Dissaprove- 48% (-4)

That's one of their daily snapshots of 1000 adults.  They're really bouncy.  The one I focus on (and post) is their weekly tracker for The Economist, which uses a sample of 1500 adults. 

Oh, ok. I suppose I am just desperate to get an idea of where his approval is at.

[Bidenworth2020]

Emerson (March 18-19)


Approve- 46% (-2)
Dissaprove- 45 (+1)

Handling of Coronavirus

Approve- 49% (-)
Disapprove- 41% (-)

[Bidenworth2020]

There is definitely a "Rally around the flag" effect going on. But as even Monmouth notes:

Trump has cast himself as a wartime president, but the small increase in his current job rating falls far short of the ‘rally round the flag’ effect past presidents have experienced,” said Murray. For example, George W. Bush’s job rating jumped nearly 30 points after 9/11 and John F. Kennedy’s approvals went up by about 10 points during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I think we'll probably see a few high quality, live interview pollsters come out and show Trump with even or positive approval ratings in the coming week. But with the economy collapsing and Trump desperately itching to pull the trigger on ending the quarantines, I cant see how his numbers stay inflated.

I can tell you are going to be a high quality poster already. Welcome to the forum!

[Bidenworth2020]

You know stuff is weird when Rasmussen has Trump far lower than Monmouth...

Rasmussen

Approve- 45% (-2)
Dissaprove- 52 (-)

https://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_mar23

[Bidenworth2020]

"Rally around the flag" just goes to show that Americans are the biggest state worshiping cucks on the planet, right after the Brits and their carpet munching of the royal family.

It might just be due to Trump's toxicity, but this is by far the most pathetic "rally around the flag" bump I have ever seen considering the magnitude of the virus.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1242521155979935744

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, its gonna be a cruel few weeks for democrats in terms of polling, without question. Whether it continues is still an open question.

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, its gonna be a cruel few weeks for democrats in terms of polling, without question. Whether it continues is still an open question.

History tells us it won't.

Generally, I would agree, but we also have to recognize the unprecedented moment we are in right now. I do NOT think it would be wise to extrapolate previous circumstances, however similar in appearance, to this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, its gonna be a cruel few weeks for democrats in terms of polling, without question. Whether it continues is still an open question.

History tells us it won't.

Generally, I would agree, but we also have to recognize the unprecedented moment we are in right now. I do NOT think it would be wise to extrapolate previous circumstances, however similar in appearance, to this.

While pandemics are unprecedented, economic crises are not.

Absolutely, but there is still the question of whether people will blame Trump for the recession as intensely as they might otherwise due to the virus causing it, whether polarization will allow him to maintain even approvals, etc etc.

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, its gonna be a cruel few weeks for democrats in terms of polling, without question. Whether it continues is still an open question.

History tells us it won't.

Generally, I would agree, but we also have to recognize the unprecedented moment we are in right now. I do NOT think it would be wise to extrapolate previous circumstances, however similar in appearance, to this.

While pandemics are unprecedented, economic crises are not.

Absolutely, but there is still the question of whether people will blame Trump for the recession as intensely as they might otherwise due to the virus causing it, whether polarization will allow him to maintain even approvals, etc etc.

I feel like I am let down by the American public enough by now to know for a fact that Trump won't bear the brunt of a recession as much as he should, especially considering how he gets credit when the economy is good. This nation is demented and warped in the way it perceives things, and it will doom us all.

If we had a fair world, Trump would not be in office. Letting yourself believe that Americans will actually look at what is happening objectively and realize what Trump is doing is just going to lead to you getting let down, my friend. I get it, it is incredibly frustrating, but the sooner you recognize it, the sooner you can make your peace with it.

[Bidenworth2020]

YouGov (March 22-24, 1000 people)

Approve- 42% (-4)

Disapprove- 53% (+5)

Worth noting that these polls are generally a lot "noisier" than their weekly polls, but I still just wanted to post some polling.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tracking poll has Trump's approval slowly dipping.

OVERAL APPROVAL
3/23: 47/49 (-2)
3/24: 46/51 (-5)
3/25: 46/52 (-6)

CORONAVIRUS APPROVAL
3/23: 52/42 (+10)
3/24: 52/43 (+9)
3/25: 48/48 (=)

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F03.25.20.pdf

Fascinating to see the lack of correlation between Coronavirus approval (now even) and approval (unchanged from yesterday). Maybe an outlier?

[Bidenworth2020]

Well the good news is that it seems his approval regarding the coronavirus has peaked.

Is there any evidence of this?

[Bidenworth2020]

PPP isn't a good pollster and is the only pollster showing Trump approval stagnant or declining with coronavirus, other pollsters have him going up

Meh. All the polls showed Hillary winning too.

Wouldn't that imply that polls are further underestimating Trump, though?

[Bidenworth2020]

New Fox Poll has it at 48/51%... virtually unchanged from their last poll.

Trump gets a 51/46% approval on Coronavirus... a lot lower compared to approval for state govt. (74%), Dr. Fauci (77%) and the Federal Government (55%).

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-march-21-24-2020

Seems like Trump's approval is settling back down to about where it was pre-virus, although 1-2 points higher.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1243525802601349120

Some interesting crosstabs (why do 12% of Republicans dissaprove?)

[Bidenworth2020]

Each time Trump gets a bit better numbers, the unskewers pop up as mushrooms after rain.


WaPo/ABC pollster is A+ Gold Standard Live Pollster. They know what they are doing. If you put enough efforts you'll always find some "inconsistency" in some (small sample) group due to random noise.

I know, but republicans are (or should be) about a third of the sample. That is not a small sample size.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244663770892378112

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244663154833047552

Looks like this are reverting to the mean (or worse re: Rasmussen)

Also this:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1244665559423254529

[Bidenworth2020]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

Is this April Fools?