MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Bidenworth2020]

I plan on doing more analysis on this, but as of now, I think McCaskill would at least be able to do as well as Susan Montee did statewide in the 2010 bloodbath as an incumbent.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=29&year=2010&f=0&off=11

McCaskill has traditionally done better in rural areas in her Senate races than one would think given the caricature of her. The upcoming special election in the lead/iron belt just east of Rolla will show us if a Missouri Democrat can still do respectably in the kinds of places McCaskill will need to have big swings in relative to the Trump-Hillary numbers to win again.

Aslo, if I'm using the 2010 Auditor's race as a guide, I'd expect McCaskill to outperform Montee considerably in metro KC and in St. Louis County, St. Charles County, and Boone County. Perhaps even keeping Greene County within single digits.

why this race?
mccaskill will obviously do worse in rural reas than montee and much better in Burbs.

[Bidenworth2020]

want some (non gravis) polling before I make any ratings changes

[Bidenworth2020]

wait, who would even vote for him?

[Bidenworth2020]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

Are you kidding me? I hope so because every time you post it’s almost always ridiculous.

Actually my wife thinks it will motivate blacks to vote.

Blacks are very inelastic, and they support their people. Marilyn Mosby (Baltimore city DA) didn't do crap with the Freddie Gray situation. she easily got re-elected in the primary

[Bidenworth2020]

https://freebeacon.com/politics/missouri-farmers-bureau-slams-mccaskill-endorses-hawley/

OOF

[Bidenworth2020]

I am pretty sure people know shes a liberal. Shes winning reps because of dem enthusiasm and being a known entity in the state.

[Bidenworth2020]

I am really hoping it's at least Hawley+5. Claire put out that anti-male video a while back and she also was once of those eye-roll worthy Game of Thrones watchers who claimed they'd stop watching because of the Sansa-Ramsay incident.

umm... did she actually say this? lol

[Bidenworth2020]

dataguy clearly isn't making biased predictions, I would be curious to see his model though