Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can’t wait to vote for The Rev

[Rookie Yinzer]

* apparent, because I'm not sure if there are 7.6 million registered voters in GA. There are probably a lot of fake people on this list, who are either dead or have long moved out of the state. 7.6 million would be more than the Census estimates of voting-age persons in the state, which is impossible.

98% of the VAP in Georgia is registered to vote. It is not impossible.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voters won’t care about what Perdue did. The Dems need to make this about how the GOP will obstruct Biden like they did Obama.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

I'm not sure what part of Georgia you are from...

1) But do you think Black turnout in the special (as a % of total votes cast) will be higher than the general election?

2) And do you think your answer is true for both Atlanta & Rural Ga?

also... 3) In general, what do you think motivates the average (non-Atlas), black voter... Voting against Trump, or voting for Warnock (Ga's 1st black senator).

I do the think the Black share of the electorate will be larger because Latino and AAPI participation will shrink as well as extremely low info whites.

I think Black turnout will remain strong in Metro Atlanta vs rural GA

I really don’t feel like Warnock being the 1st Black Senator is a big deal.... I felt it when Abrams was running but that was for an executive post and she would have been the first Black woman Governor in this country. Period. I definitely feel like people are motivated by punishing Trumpism/GOP vs the candidates.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It was Whites+20 (51-31) among 1.78 million ballot requests for the GE.

Now, it’s Whites+26 (56-30) with 1 million requests so far.

Doesn’t look all too promising, but who knows ...

Biden won mail in ballots 65-34.... there are definitely going to be more Dems voting in person in this race because of the shorter turnaround.

Y'all can't resist finding doom and gloom in every stat.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It was Whites+20 (51-31) among 1.78 million ballot requests for the GE.

Now, it’s Whites+26 (56-30) with 1 million requests so far.

Doesn’t look all too promising, but who knows ...

Biden won mail in ballots 65-34.... there are definitely going to be more Dems voting in person in this race because of the shorter turnaround.

Y'all can't resist finding doom and gloom in every stat.

I'm applying here the same logic as in the early vote in Florida: the numbers we have already aren't great for Dems and evidence suggests Election Day voters tend to lean more to the right. And it was the correct call. So if Warnock wins the race, I will change my avatar and name to "Glory to Blue Georgia" for a month.

This is not the general election. This election wasn’t even expected by many voters until three weeks ago. It’s not the same thing but k.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sadly he has stuck to script ... probably the only hope we had was him going off the rails

You still pretending to know what's going on in Georgia?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1335401538244595712?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

Oh my god, I would pay literally all my money to be able to jump into Warnock's body and just trash the s--t out of Loeffler.  I think this is one of those places where the Trump debate strategy is really called for.  Just call her out for relying on the same 4 lies, interrupt her every time she lies, call her a child for continually using the "radical liberal Raphael Warnock" thing, etc.

By the way, leftists, have you noticed that Loeffler's entire strategy to win this debate is to accuse Warnock of supporting "defund the police" and the Green New Deal?  Imagine if we hadn't served up those weapons on a silver platter to the GOP.

He is Black. He can't act like Trump.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was scrolling through Ossoff’s tiktok, and he definitely is running an energetic campaign, far more so than Warnock. Ossoff seems to be taking a #populist tone against Perdue. I think he may do better than we thought.

Yeah I think the Perdue/Ossoff race will be closer than the Loeffler/Warnock one at this point.

Because of TikTok... lmao. K.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Nobody is peddling this theory except for Dem hacks who don't even live in Georgia. I wish y'all would stop giving it life.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

Statewide. There aren’t enough white people in Clayton for that number to happen lol

[Rookie Yinzer]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

I mean... if you moved within state I would just go vote from where you moved from. All of the races on the ballot are statewide so it's not like you're voting for a race where you don't live.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Hush. This means nothing. Many people who requested are simply going to do IPEV. Stop.

Y'all really in here trying to call the races before a single person has voted in person. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

Does anyone know how the 1.135M ballot requests compare to the number requested at this point in the General  (I'm not sure what the best point in time would be most comparable- maybe 20 days prior to the election, or halfway into the request period)?

I would stop comparing tbh. Dems and other progressive groups on the ground are pushing in person early vote. The holidays + the fast turn around from November is making that the preferred method to casting ballots.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Interestingly Fulton has reported almost 0 percent of mail in ballots, Clarke has reported NOTHING, and Muscogee, Bibb, and Richmond have barely reported anything either. The accepted ballots are way more Dem and Black than it looks right now.

Are any white rurals underreporting?

Pickens and Banks. The white rurals in both North and South GA are way above the state average.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

[Rookie Yinzer]

However, maybe that is a weekend reporting effect, perhaps a number of counties don't report as much on the weekend?

Correct.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Why is everyone assuming Loeffler would lose a Biden midterm?

Because Carter/Nunn outperformed the 2010 candidates including flipping Henry County when Obama was immensely unpopular in GA and the lowest midterm turnout in 80 years.

Not to mention Abrams will probably be running in a rematch with Kemp in what will undoubtedly be the most expensive Governor's race ever.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What is the best strategy for Ossoff to overcome the perceived Perdue advantage? (And is he making headway with such a strategy?)

what is the perceived Perdue advantage?

Some made up anecdotes from Twitter and this forum.

Y’all really need to understand that 99 percent of people are not moved by the stuff y’all hand-wring about. This entire election cycle hasn’t taught y’all that yet?

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Braves haven't announced a name change, but it's definitely an argument that Lqeffler and Perdue have that puts them in agreement with the majority of Georgians.

Hope it doesn't flip many voters though. The people who vote so casually that they'll base it on whether a baseball team changes its name (something that has nothing to do with the US Senate) are probably not going to be particularly likely to turn out for a runoff.

They just released this statement just to release it. The Braves have not indicated a name change at all and this isn't a thing. Perdue and Loeffler are just thirsty to find anything to salivate their rabid, brain dead base.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1338824661015138309?s=20

Atlas: “Turnout’s going to be low because a Dixiecrat who ran away from the shadow of Obama lost a low turnout election over a decade ago before millions of new voters joined the voter rolls.”

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.