OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

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One thing is for sure, Republicans won't be nominating JD Vance again. I also imagine after the clown show that was the Mandel v Vance primary, Republicans will take a much more serious approach to campaigning and not try to spend the entire primary being a caricature of a populist LARPer.

But if Trump’s influence on the Republican Party is still as strong then as it is now, the 2024 nominee could very well be another MAGA-type candidate.

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I don't see how Brown wins no matter what happens. Even after JD Vance barely campaigned at all and that poor 10-year-old girl had to travel out of state for an abortion, Ryan still lost by over 6 points. It's not happening. R+1.

Tbf, there were things working in Vance’s favor, most notably, low black turnout which is why counties like Moaning, Allen, and Montgomery counties swinging right from 2020 Pres.

Ryan made some of the same mistakes that Joe Donnelly did in 2018 - namely, campaigning as Republican-lite and using Republican rhetoric against the Democratic base, which was a major contributing factor in both of their losses (due to depressed Democratic base turnout). On the other hand, I don't see evidence of Brown having campaigned as Republican-lite in the same way that Donnelly & Ryan did, and as long as Brown continues to avoid doing that, he should be fine as long as he runs a competent campaign and is popular enough.

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This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

I mean maybe but I think it is important to note this also isn't Arizona. I really see no reason why like 10% of Trump voters will chose to vote for Brown, which is probably right around what he needs, maybe more. Also Trump doesn't like endorsing losers or people who he thinks will lose, that could push him away from endorsing Moreno, especially since he has endorsed LaRose in past races.

The last time Brown shared the ballot with a Republican presidential candidate, he won 9% of voters who also voted Republican at the presidential level.

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Ultimately Dolan will comfortably beat Brown if he wins the primary.  

Doubt he'll have any issue consolidating more "MAGA" elements of the base given Trump will begrudgingly endorse him for the general.

Preliminary exit polls indicate that the lion’s share (nearly 7 in 10) of OH Senate primary voters want their next Senator to be a Trump loyalist. That’s not a good sign for Dolan if it holds.