CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Webnicz]

I can't believe we are almost to the end of primary season here in AZ! just a few more days

In the mean time to keep us occupied,this is a super fun website that shows the distribution of early ballots as they are returned to county recorders across the state. It updates daily at around 4pm.

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

[Webnicz]

In terms of numbers we are WAAAAY up in number of ballots cast in compared to the '16 primary.
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032030289009102848

GOP leading, there are multiple primaries across the state that will crank up GOP turnout, there are only 2 challenged primaries on the Dec ballot.

Majority of new voters however are Dems. 22% of voters this election have never voted in a primary!! and we still have a week to go!
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032397021494136833

more info on democratic turnout
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032401993212485632

[Webnicz]

Heres a Ballot Update.
Democrats have just about 29K ballots to go before they match their 2016 primary turnout
The Republicans still have about 168K more ballots to go until they match their 2016 turnout.

Two important downballot primaries to watch on Tuesday are for AZ-SoS and AZ-Superintendent. If the incumbent Republicans are renominated in either of those offices, those races instantly go to Leans D at a minimum. They are both extremely unpopular and are among the most incompetent row officers in the whole country.

This is true! I don't believe Michelle Reagan will win her primary(super insane that a top state official will likely go down in a primary but she's literally awful at her job). However I think it could be possible(only slightly) that Diane Douglas does win, only because there are like 5 other people challenging her in the GOP primary whereas Reagan is going 1v1.

[Webnicz]

East coast friends- be prepared to stay up late

https://twitter.com/ben_giles/status/1034533384318476289?s=21

[Webnicz]

Polls in the Grand Canyon state have CLOSED - results will post at 8pm

[Webnicz]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1034506345947361281

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1034507155485818882

Democratic turnout/enthusiasm in Arizona is GANGBUSTERS

This primary is expected to have MORE voters than in the 2016 presidential primary!

[Webnicz]

Races to watch tonight (Besides AZSEN which everyone is overhyped about, theres so much more excitement)

-AZ01 GOP primary
-AZ02 Dem Primary (As shocking as it is to atlas, there were internal polls that weren't released that showed it a tie or with Heinz in the lead, but that story was a couple weeks ago)
-AZ06 Dem Primary ( Dems have small chance of winning this seat but it is interesting to see Progressive vs Traditional Democrats fight it out in a WEALTHY district, will Democratic-Socialist ideas be popular with rich Dems?)

GOV Dem Primary
Arizona Secretary Of State GOP primary
Superintendent of Public Instruction GOP and Dem primaries

[Webnicz]

Have the exit polls for AZ been released yet

No exit polls, only EV dump to be published.

Ok Thanks

You could always try poking around County websites to see if they publish come data prior to the State websites or MSM outlets that cover elections, or we just wait impatiently....

Probably not much difference either way....

Feel free to take a bathroom break.

AZ law doesn't allow results (including EV's) to be released until at least  1 hour after polls close.

[Webnicz]

Ignore Krazen, he's just bored....

Meanwhile, looks like we have a chance of the AZ Data Guru tweeting some pretty cool stuff tonight once the polls close.

AZ Data Guru is literally my god like this whole state would not exist without him

[Webnicz]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1034636870003507200

are we shocked lol

[Webnicz]

wow Michele Reagan is getting CRUSHED

[Webnicz]

REST IN PEACE MICHELE REAGAN'S TENURE AS AN AWFUL SEC OF STATE

even republicans realized this wow. Didn't know it would be that bad though.

[Webnicz]

Ward winning Mohave

and Arpaio winning Yuma

so far they both have one county on the board for them but thats as far as they will go

[Webnicz]

McSally pivoting HARD tonight. boucinging allll the way  to basically feminist in her speech. Seems like the GOP has realized they have to start moving left to win here.

[Webnicz]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

That isn't what happened though. McSally was pushed to the right. She basically became Kelli Ward without the Chemtrails.

[Webnicz]

Not sure if it usually happens in primaries (doesn't in generals), but Democrats won the primary turnout battle in Navajo County (50.2-49.8).

This is significant for Navajo, its a sign that the Native American community is engaged this cycle. Navajo is always slightly more republican