Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

I know the liberation of Kherson has been overshadowed by the midterms, but all the events of the past few weeks-- and indeed this whole year-- have made me so optimistic for neoliberal democracy in the world. Not gonna lie, I teared up a little watching these videos. Fascists get the rope!

[John Dule]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457

LOL, as if we twisted their arms and forced them to become dependent on Russian gas. Even a moron like Trump understood that they were hitching their wagon to a very unreliable horse.

[John Dule]

This is utterly pathetic on the EU's part. Even leaving aside Putin's role:

"The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. "

What kind of braindead logic is that?? We should all be encouraging green energy right now. If the IRA's energy investments put Europe at a disadvantage, guess what, Europe should do the same! Of course, that would require not being single-mindedly focused on budgetary austerity...

“Lol, foolish Americans pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords. They should learn to care about the environment like us enlightened Europeans— no, wait! Not like that! Nooo!”

[John Dule]

Aside from the Ukraine border issue, does that map factor in purchasing power? Given how much higher wages are in Ireland, I wouldn't be surprised if they're much better off on net than even Russia.

[John Dule]

If Russia actually goes ahead with a Belarus offensive towards Kyiv that we have heard for over a month now they are desperate/dumb. Between geography issues, local resistance in Belarus, and the fact that to prevent being hit in the rear that Russia will have to attack places like Sumy again points to any offense doing more harm than good for Russia

At this point, such an offensive would be more likely to topple the Lukashenko regime than the Zelensky regime.

[John Dule]

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 20th century: Libs freak out

German tanks roll into Eastern Europe in the 21st century: Libs celebrate

Watch the liberal media try to convince us these situations are different

If you honestly, truly, cannot spot the Grand Canyon sized Chasm between these two scenarios, you should delete your account immediately.

sar Chasm, badge her

[John Dule]

In true Cultural Revolution fashion, it seems some Ukraine schools have renamed Moscovium to Ucranium

Was “freedom fries” a “cultural revolution?”

[John Dule]

Was “freedom fries” a “cultural revolution?”

For me, yes.  When I heard of it I thought it was one of the stupidest things I have ever heard.  If a political movement is reduced to renaming things and tearing down monuments/statues usually it is a sign that it's tapped out and is running out of meaningful progress that it can make.

And how is that analogous to a political movement that killed millions?

[John Dule]

I think the reference to the Chinese Cultural revolution flew over his head.

Where did I give any indication that I didn't get the reference?

And comparing it to "Freedom Fries" when the most France did to the U.S. was hurt George W. Bush's fee-fees is trivializing the war in Ukraine (to be clear, this is ridiculing the criticism of this change).

... The point is that whining about renaming stuff is itself trivial. Did you actually think I was comparing Russia's behavior today to France's behavior during the Iraq War?



Both of you guys need to work on your reading comprehension.

[John Dule]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

[John Dule]

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

A smoothbrained take so dense only a centrist could've made it. To say that you can never infer someone's beliefs based on their statements and actions is the kind of statement one can only endorse if they are in the ideological clutches of both-sidesism.

I never said "you can never infer someone's beliefs". I said "you can't necessarily tell someone's beliefs based purely off shibboleths". Woodbury has said, multiple times, he is supportive of Ukraine, so it would be quite unfair to him if I didn't take that into account either.
Please, either use the full scope of your mental facilities, or keep your mouth shut. Instead of valid argumentation, you just said stuff that is neither here nor there.
P.S. I would rather die as a moderate than permanently become an extremist.

Your adherence to centrism is itself extreme.

[John Dule]

Russian law enforcement has (from what I can gather) arrested one of the suspects, started a manhunt for her boyfriend. Apparently Russian nationals; Darya Trepova, who supposedly gave the bust to Vladlen, and her boyfriend who is a member of the Libertarian Party of Russia, Dmitri Rylov. Both were detained prior, during the anti-war protests in Russia - Feb-March 2022.

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1642640876877799424

Libertarian Party of Russia > Libertarian Party of America

[John Dule]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html

Not good news.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1646160626123677699

Good move on their part! Fortunately their retarded adversaries don't bother to postpone offensives when they're unprepared.

[John Dule]

[John Dule]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

B-but muh global south solidarity!

[John Dule]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

Yes. Having a free press ensures less graft and corruption within the armed forces. Putin learned this last year when he discovered the truth of just how ineffective his military is.

[John Dule]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

Yes. Having a free press ensures less graft and corruption within the armed forces. Putin learned this last year when he discovered the truth of just how ineffective his military is.

Ukraine probably has a more transparent officer corp within the military but they absolutely do make up random propaganda for the media which are obvious lies. Nothing wrong but ots whats happening

Sure. The fact remains that they're less likely to make things up than Russia.

[John Dule]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

Yes. Having a free press ensures less graft and corruption within the armed forces. Putin learned this last year when he discovered the truth of just how ineffective his military is.

Ukraine probably has a more transparent officer corp within the military but they absolutely do make up random propaganda for the media which are obvious lies. Nothing wrong but ots whats happening

Sure. The fact remains that they're less likely to make things up than Russia.

How would you know, you're a guy from California.

And I understand the incentive structures at play in authoritarian regimes. When you don't have a free press, it's much easier for your government to spread false narratives and lies. As if to prove my point, look at the false flag operation carried out at the Kremlin.

[John Dule]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

What if you were American?

[John Dule]

Eww, don't quote him. From Wikipedia:

During the Kosovo War, Biletsky and a group of other Ukrainians attempted to join the Yugoslav Army as volunteers to fight against the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), but the war ended before they arrived at the front.

In 2010, Biletsky said that the Ukrainian nation's mission is to "lead the white races of the world in a final crusade...against Semite-led Untermenschen". Biletsky denied ever making such remarks and said that it was a fake quotation fabricated by Sergey Lavrov to defame him.....

....The Independent reported in 2022 that Biletsky is also known as White Leader. In 2013 he wrote a brochure called The Word of the White Leader. According to a 2021 paper by political scientists Umland and Fedorenko, he had been known as white leader before 2014, but has subsequently claimed that "if someone called me white leader face-to-face, [that person] would have been beaten".

As of 2014, the BBC, The Independent and The Moscow Times have described Biletsky as a white supremacist. As of 2014 he had been accused of neo-Nazi views by sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko.

In 2018, The Guardian reported that Biletsky "has toned down his rhetoric in recent years". Freedom House initiative Reporting Radicalism reported as of 2022 that he has not publicly made racist remarks since 2014, but he does "invoke anti-LGBT+ rhetoric frequently". Umland and Fedorenko wrote in 2021 that he still publicly objects to multiculturalism, but has stated "to be a Ukrainian nationalist today is to believe in values, not racial prejudice", and announced that his party does not use ethnicity to define who can, or cannot, be part of the nation Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Biletsky

[John Dule]

It doesn't seem like anyone's discussed this story yet. Pretty major news.

https://apnews.com/article/defector-russia-takeaways-karakulov-dossier-center-putin-42c570974c93255d178c5b373c9c12d3

Long story short: A member of Putin's personal security service defected. He's confirmed all the rumors about Putin's paranoia and isolation, but he disputes the claims that Putin is seriously ill.

I found this video to be a good summary (for those who have time):

[John Dule]

Again guys, still very early on. Prigozhin dooming as always. This attack was expected. I'll believe Russians are in serious danger when Klischiivka falls in the south and Berkhivka settlement in the north falls. As for now, any actual talk of encirclement of the city is inappropriate. For now there has not been any major breakthroughs.

[John Dule]

Simplest and most likely answer is structural failure. The dam has been neglected for almost a year and was damaged in fighting. Do you think dams can last forever without maintenance?

Dams are some of the strongest structures made by man. Without maintenance, it's estimated that the Hoover Dam would stand for hundreds of years. Even the generators could run unattended for years.

[John Dule]

Simplest and most likely answer is structural failure. The dam has been neglected for almost a year and was damaged in fighting. Do you think dams can last forever without maintenance?

Dams are some of the strongest structures made by man. Without maintenance, it's estimated that the Hoover Dam would stand for hundreds of years. Even the generators could run unattended for years.

Depends on the dam in question to be fair: infamously Mosul Dam is a complete disaster of a construction that requires near constant renovation/fresh concrete to prevent its collapse.

Sure. The fact remains though that the "simplest and most likely answer" is not just "structural failure."