Spain FPTP simulation

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of which, here is our next province, the first 5 seater

Castellón (5 seats, 115k people/seat)

I will preface this by saying that both sides seem fairly evenly distributed in Castellón. This means that even the 2 districts I caracterized as safe, are probably better seen as more like "likely" seats since their margins are still rather close (but outside 5 points, more like 6-10 I'd say).



El Maestrat: This takes in the rural north of the province, going around the interior as well. The partisan divide here seems to be that the further away you go from the border with Catalonia, the more right wing the district becomes. Since most people here live in the left wing coast, I think this votes for the left by like 6-10 points which I've been characterizing as safe
Safe left

Plana Alta: This takes in the comarca of Plana Alta minus the municipality of Almazora and like the core 3/4 of Castellón de la Plana, the provincial capital. And really this is the mirror image of the El Maestrat district. Here in general the coastal areas are more right wing than the interior areas. The interior seems to have narrowly voted left, but here the coastal areas, which seem to be quite touristy, voted heavily right wing, which means this district voted for the right probably by high single digits. (7-8 points or so)
Safe Right

Castellón de la Plana: This takes the core of Castellón de la Plana, except for some very peripheral areas and the port of the city. The entire municipality ended up as a draw in Nov 19, with the right eking out a victory by 0.2%. Since the areas I removed seem to lean left (particularly the port area) this is probably a bit to the right of the city but this is a right wing victory of 1 point at most. Expect very contested elections here but since I am avoiding tossups
Lean Right

Almazora, Villareal y Burriana: This district takes essencially 3 "suburban?" towns south of Castellón all of which combined add up to a full district. Villareal is the most populated and voted for the left by 2 points, but the other 2 voted for the right by 6 and 10 points. Since there are only 4 municipalities here, I can actually easily calculate the proper result. And this voted for the right by 4 points (52-48).
Lean Right

Plana Baixa: This takes in the southern rural areas of Castellón province, up to the border with Valencia. And much like Castellon city's district, this is an incredibly tight district. Here basically all the regions of the district cancel each other. Much like in the other coastal district, the closer you get to Valencia, the more left wing it is. However, the coastal towns cancel each other out and so do the rural areas. I believe this must have gone for the right by an incredibly narrow margin of like 1-2 points, but it could have also very easily gone to the left. In any case, yet another ultra competitive district
Lean Right

Totals
9 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
37 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(15-43-5)

[Former President tack50]

You need some more visible borders for the competitive-right category. I think I know the borders between the three seats, but I am not sure. In the past I could tell where one seat ended and another began since it bordered safer seats. However, when the leans border each other, they all meld together because of the light border color.

I suppose I should use a darker shade of blue (or pink) here then?

Here is a quick redo with an slighly darker shade of blue and thicker borders (almost too thick in fact)



For the record, the link in the first page should update automatically, so if anyone is in doubt about any seat borders, that also works as a backup.

[Former President tack50]

Cantabria (5 seats, 116k people/seat)

This was a province that was easy to draw, but very hard to guess the results. Depending on whether you treat PRC as their own thing or as part of the left, the results will change drastically. For now I decided to treat them as their own thing since, after all, they did not support Sánchez in his confidence vote.

If you do think PRC is better treated as just part of the left please let me now and I'll change the results retroactively I guess



Santander: This takes the core of the city of Santander. Santander is quite a right wing city and in fact, even if you included PRC as part of the left this would be incredibly tight (as in, within 1 point or 2). With PRC separate though, this is safe for the right
Safe Right.

Afueras de Santander: This is the outer Santander district, taking some further out areas from the municipality of Santander and some suburban municipalities nearby. If including PRC among the left, this would be at convincing left wing victory by high single digits. However because of the "PRC penalty" this zooms right and becomes safe for the right. To get an idea of why, we can look at El Astillero municipality, which is the most left wing area of the district. This voted 42-36-20 for the right. So it is easy to see how counting PRC or not as part of the left causes some huge swings
Safe Right

Torrelavega: This takes the remainder of the further away areas from the Santander metropolitan area, and then takes in Torrelavega, the 2nd largest town in Cantabria as well as some coastal areas. This district is the only one where I was able to calculate an actual result: 42-35-23 for the right. So while competitive, this still falls under the broad umbrella of safe, though again merging PRC and the left causes huge swings
Safe Right

Costa Oriental - Trasmiera: This was a hard district to rate. It is extremely divided with the western parts being conservative and the eastern parts being left wing. The municipality of Castro Urdiales in fact, accounting for roughly 25% of the population, is incredibly left wing and the left proper got over 50% there (not including PRC). This is because, in a way, it functions as a suburb of nearby Bilbao. However, I think the left just gets outvoted in the remainder of the district, with the right winning handily in the western parts and winning very weak pluralities on the east outside Castro Urdiales
Safe Right

Costa Occidental, Liébana y Campóo: This is the rural remainder of the province in the west. The right definitely did not get a majority here, but it almost certainly won with a plurality of more than 5 points.
Safe Right

Totals
9 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
42 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(15-49-5)

[Former President tack50]

Next province comes today and it is finally a left dominated province for once, even if narrowly.

Jaén (5 seats, 127k people/seat)

A fairly standard and self explaining province to draw. Nothing out of the extraordinary here I think other than maybe that the right seems a bit packed to me.

I will say that something feels off in terms of partisanship here as Jaén was essencially a tie yet I got a map with a whopping 4 left wing districts. And I certainly don't think this is a gerrymander, nor are conservatives packed to that extent.



Jaén: This takes in the provincial capital of Jaén and 2 nearby small towns. This is Andalucia, so now we have a pattern of rural leftists vs urban conservatives. This voted for the right by about 56-42
Safe Right

Sierra Sur de Jaén: This district takes in some areas in the "Jaén Metropolitan Area" to the west of Jaén itself, as well as the mountains on the Southwest of the province (Jaén province is essencially surrounded by mountains, given it is in the upper part of the Guadalquivir valley). Politically, the areas near Jaen seem to vote left while the ones in the south seem to go for the right and they counteract each other near perfectly, though the left narrowly wins here
Lean left

Sierras de Cazorla, Segura, las Villas y Sierra Mágina: This district takes essencially all the southeastern part of the province, and is comprised for the most part of 2 natural parks. However, this seems to be the most left wing district in the province. While the northern areas are a bit more divided, the southern towns are heavily left wing. This most definitely goes for the left
Safe Left

La Loma-El Condado: This takes the counties of La Loma and El Condado as well as 2 towns near Jaén. The western edge of this district is heavily left wing, although the towns of Úbeda and Baeza are right wing, as well as some of the other rurals narrowly going for the right. However, they are not enough to outvote that edge of the district and I think this goes left by about 6 points narrowly being safe
Safe Left

La Campiña-Sierra Morena: This is the northeastern district, centered around the town of Linares which takes like 40% of the district and is essencially evenly divided. Then you have the towns of Bailén and Andújar, which vote for the right by about 3000 votes. However, the rurals here narrowly outvote that and this ends up being a district won by the left by around 3 points.
Lean Left

Totals
11 Safe Left
8 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
43 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(19-49-5)

[Former President tack50]

Navarra (5 seats, 131k people/seat)

This was a bit harder to draw than usual despite having good information. I really hate all those tiny municipalities near Pamplona. Oh and since this is a nationalist province, the partisan labels should be taken with a bit more caution than usual. There is a reason why I put all 3 rural districts as lean



Tudela-Rivera Alta: This is the southern district, taking in the small "panhandle" around Tudela and then following along the valley of the Ebro River. In terms of partisanship, the town of Tudela is rather right wing, though it only accounts for 20% of the district. The remainder seems to lean left, and I think even if the margins are not huge, it is enough to beat out the right in here. The nationalists are barely relevant in this area, as this is the most culturally Castillian part of Navarra
Lean Left

Pamplona Sur / Hego Iruña: This takes in the southern 2/3 of the town of Pamplona, home of the bull running festival and the regional capital. And in a way, this is quite a heavy right wing gerrymander, taking in basically all the right leaning areas of the town, most notably the 19th century expansions. Anyways, this is definitely the most right wing district
Safe Right

Pamplona Norte / Ipar Iruña: Conversely, this takes in the northern third of the town of Pamplona, including the old town as well as several small towns to the north that in many cases function as a extension of the city. Anyways, this is the polar opposite of the previous district. The nationalists have a strong presence in the old city as is expected in the Basque Country but really this district should be safe for the left
Safe Left

Tierra de Estella - Cuenca de Pamplona / Iruñerria - Lizarrerria: This is the long, southwestern district, taking in the areas around the town of Estella/Lizarra and doing a line until it takes the remainder of the exurbs of the Pamplona area. The rurals seem roughly evenly split, with maybe a small lean to the left. Meanwhile the Pamplona suburbs and exurbs, which have more population than you might expect, lean to the right. I think unlike the Tudela district though, here the right wing areas narrowly win but I am not confident on that
Lean Right

Tafalla y Noroeste /Tafallaldea eta Ipar-Mendebaldea: This is the northern district that goes from the Pyrinees to the middle east. In the north, and especially in the northwest, the nationalists win handily, though these areas seem less populated to me. Still I think they would be decisive. The nationalists are probably packed enough here and the unionists divided enough that I think this would be a very narrow nationalist win, albeit one in a close 3 way race with just the right amount of vote splitting
Lean Nationalist

Totals
12 Safe Left
9 Lean Left
7 Lean Right
44 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(21-51-6)

[Former President tack50]

Well, here comes the 2nd to last 5 seater province:

Badajoz (5 seats, 135k people/seat)

Again I am not fully convinced of these partisan ratings since they seem to me a bit beneficial to the right but whatever.



Badajoz: This takes in simply the provincial capital of Badajoz. Badajoz is a surprisingly right wing city, even when adjusting for the fact that cities are more right wing in this part of the country. This voted for the right by nearly 18 points
Safe Right

Almendralejo, Olivenza y Campo de Badajoz: This is the western district, that takes in a tentacle into the town fo Almendralejo. The town of Almendralejo itself is very much right wing, but the rural remainder of the district is very left wing and manages to (narrowly) outvote it
Lean left

Mérida y Montijo: This district is the north central district which pretty much just takes the towns of Mérida and Montijo. The town of Mérida comprises most of the population here and voted for the right by about 1 point. The remainder of the district narrowly voted for the left. After basically looking at the municipalities here, it seems to me that the rurals do not manage to outvote Mérida despite the small margin they need to outvote it; so this went to the right. However the margin must have been ridiculously close, I think it is on the scale of 100 votes or so. This is where I really need a tossup category
Lean Right

Don Benito: This is the eastern rural district, centered around the town of Don Benito. And this is a textbook example of rural Extremadura. The decently large towns of Don Benito and Villanueva de la Serena vote for the right and the rest of the district for the left, which outvotes it but I do not think outvotes it by enough to be larger than 5 points
Lean Left

Zafra: This is the southern rural district. And in a very similar situation to Don Benito, the larger towns here vote right narrowly, while the truly rural areas vote left. And much like Don Benito, this goes for the left by a not so overwhelming margin, though I think this one is the most left wing district in Extremadura. In fact I think this would narrowly fall into the Safe category but it could also be just lean
Safe left

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
8 Lean Right
45 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-53-6)

[Former President tack50]

The final 5 seater province:

Toledo (5 seats, 139k people/seat)

Not really a fan of how the map turned out and also quite a hard province to draw but still



Talavera de la Reina: This is the rural western district, taking in the partido judicial of Talavera de la Reina, and centered around this town. The rural areas are only somewhat right wing but not overwhelmingly so. However the main population center of Talavera de la Reina is to the right of these rural areas, which makes the district safe
Safe Right

Montes de Toledo-Torrijos: Starting in the west, this is the 2nd vertical strip, and really this was a rural leftovers district that turned out to be alright (even if I am not a fan of the 5 vertical strips here). Anyways this is rural Castille-La Mancha and votes for the right by a good margin
Safe Right

La Sagra: This is the northern district, centered around the comarca of La Sagra. In a way, this district functions as a distant exurb of Madrid much like the 2 urban Guadalajara ones. Madrid exurbs were a big area of strength for Vox, and this again voted comfortably for the right.
Safe Right

Toledo: Just south of La Sagra, this surprisingly long and thin district takes in the provincial capital of Toledo (where 2/3 of the population lives) and then basically takes a couple towns to its north and then goes along road N-401 taking nearby towns. Toledo city voted for the right by 15 points and the other towns are not exactly super left wing either so the result here is clear
Safe Right

Mesa de Ocaña-La Mancha alta: This is essencially peak Don Quixote land. Windmills, open fields, etc. In fact, the village of El Toboso (where Don Quixote's romantic interest lived) is in this district. Anyways, while this makes for an interesting district to describe, its politics are more boring. The rurals seem to be relatively close, but the bigger the population here, the more right wing the towns become so I think this goes for the right by a safe margin, but maybe in the past this was competitive
Safe Right

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
8 Lean Right
50 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-58-6)

[Former President tack50]

We get the first 6 seater province today

Almería (6 seats, 120k people/seat)

Note I think I messed up populations here and the inner rural district is probably underpopulated. If populating it properly it probably becomes more right wing but not sure if actually safe.



Almería: This takes the innermost 2/3 or so of the provincial capital of Almería. Almería as a whole is a right wing city that voted like 41-57 for the right, but this takes in the more left wing areas of the city. I suppose this would be just barely outside the margins of competitiveness or just barely in them; but definitely still safe under most circumstances
Safe Right

Cabo de Gata: This is the southwestern district, taking in the remaining third of Almería as well as the rest of its "metropolitan area", up to the cape of Gata. Since this takes the more right wing parts of the city and the rurals aren't exactly super left wing here, this is also safe
Safe Right

Levante Almeriense - Los Vélez: This is the northeastern district, that takes in the entire border with the neighbouring region of Murcia. There is not much to see here really, this area of the country is very right wing for a variety of reasons; from access to water to muslim immigration being quite high.
Safe Right

Roquetas de Mar: This district is just west of Almería and is one of the 2 districts located in Spain's famous "Sea of Plastics" basically an area with a ton of greenhouses and greenhouse farming, to the point where it is visible in space. Anyways because of the very high muslim immigration and greenhouse farming being very different from regular farming in Andalucia, this is a Vox stronghold and a right wing stronghold in general, with the right getting like 2/3 of the vote
Safe Right

El Ejido: This district is again just west of the Roquetas de Mar district and is centered around the town of El Ejido, being also the other "Sea of Plastics" district. El Ejido is famous for 2 things: Being a massive Vox stronghold (Vox won a plurality here in their very first election, being the only town where they did that) and having the worst race riots in Spanish history back in 2000. Obviously what I said about Roquetas de Mar also applies here but even more strongly and the right broke 70% here. In fact this district may be one of the candidates for most right wing district in this project
Safe Right

Alpujarra Almeriense-Valle del Almanzora: This is the big rural interior district, and this is also probably the most "culturally Andalusian" district (Almería often feels detached from the rest of Andalucia and is probably the most culturally distinct province). The rurals here are basically evenly split in general and resemble more those from the rest of Andalucia than those from the coast. Anyways here I think the right narrowly manages a win but it'd be very close, within 5 points.
Lean Right

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-64-6)

[Former President tack50]

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.

Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:

1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1

2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.

So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.

I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.

End result for said project though was:

24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist

(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality

For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.

[Former President tack50]

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.

Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:

1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1

2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.

So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.

I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.

End result for said project though was:

24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist

(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality

For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.

Though of course it can't be assumed that vote distribution would be the same under a FPTP system!

Yeah, I would obviously expect a lot of changes in the behaviour of people if Spain developed FPTP and a firm 2 party system, though I suppose this would be a bit closer to reality if done in 2008 somehow.

I would also expect quite a bit of tactical voting, particularly among right wing unionists in Catalonia/Basque Country, who would hold the balance of power in many seats. Quite a few nationalist and left wing seats will be won with pluralities (and the right does not really have any chances at a seat in either of those 2 regions. At best they might just barely win one in the rich parts of Barcelona but even that is a stretch)

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of which, here is the next province, and it is again a nationalist leaning province

Guipúzcoa (6 seats, 120k people/seat)



Irún: This is the northwestern district, right at the border with France. The Irun area has traditionally been one of the more unionist parts of the Basque Country and especially of the province of Guipúzcoa. However, much like the rest of the region, it has been trending towards nationalism. Since this district is just composed of a hanful of municipalities, I was able to calculate a proper result here, which is basically 47% Nationalist, 41% left, 12% right. Therefore this just narrowly makes the cut for being a safe nationalist seat by the criteria I've been using but let's not kid ourselves, this would be extremely competitive
Safe Nationalist

San Sebastián Este y Rentería / Donostiako Ekialdean eta Errenteria: This district takes in the town of Rentería, which is also a traditional unionist stronghold, as well as the eastern third of the provincial capital of San Sebastián/Donostia and the small nearby town of Astigarraga. This third of the provincial capital is the more unionist and left wing one, and combined with Rentería this actually makes for a district that voted for the left. However, Rentería is not what it used to be and downtown San Sebastian is actually quite heavily nationalist so the margin here must have been ridiculously close, though this must have been safer in the past
Lean left

San Sebastián Oeste / Donostiako Mendebaldea: This meanwhile takes in the western 2/3rds of San Sebastián. And this is the more nationalist part of town, with PNV sweeping most precincts here. This is also the more right wing part of town, particularly in downtown where PP gets second in many precincts. Anyways, this is clearly safe for the nationalists
Safe nationalist

Urola Kosta: West of San Sebastián, this was basically my rural leftovers district. Anyways this basically goes along the coast and takes some interior towns as well. Being this is the rural Basque Country, this is very much nationalist territory
Safe Nationalist

Tolosaldea - Goierri: This takes in the comarcas of Tolosaldea and Goierri. And really, this is peak Bildu and peak Basque separatist land. Most areas in here voted for Bildu by quite heavy margins. Of course as you might expect PNV came in 2nd pretty much everywhere here as well (except in some municipalities in the west where PNV won and Bildu got 2nd). Either way it does not matter which of the 2 nationalists won, combined they win in a landslide
Safe Nationalist

Cuenca del Deva / Deva Arroa: This very elongated district takes in the comarcas of Alto Deva and Bajo Deva. As you may expect this really just follows the course of the Deva river and takes all the towns near it. Again, nationalists won here in a landslide when combined
Safe Nationalist

Totals
13 Safe Left
12 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
10 Safe Nationalist
(25-64-11)

In other news, this update means we finally have 100 districts in! Only 250 to go!

[Former President tack50]

Yet another nationalist province, this time it is Puigdemont's home province of Girona. Harder than usual to draw and has a district that is truly nothing but leftovers but still not bad.

Girona (6 seats, 128k people/seat)



Pirineu de Girona: This is the northwestern district in the Pyrinees, along the border with France. Other than the elongated shape not much to say here, this is rural Catalonia, peak nationalist turf (Girona is arguably the most Catalan secessionist province)
Safe Nationalist

Alt Empordà: This is the northeastern district, again bordering France but on the coast, and taking pretty much the entire Alt Empordà comarca. There are some interesting towns here and this is a nice part of Catalonia, but politically it's still very nationalist and very boring
Safe Nationalist

Baix Empordà: This is just south of the Alt Empordà district, and is the middle coastal district. Very similar to the previous district, and it takes the comarca of Baix Empordà. Not much else to say here, again nationalist turf
Safe nationalist

Girona: This district comprises the provincial capital of Girona, and the nearby "suburb"/commuter town of Salt which is pretty much integrated with it. This is Puigdemont's home town as well as the city where he was the long time mayor of. In any case, of the 4 provincial capitals Girona is the most pro-secession one, which means this district is still safe for the nationalists (although a bit more closer than the other 3)
Safe Nationalist

Selva Nord - Gironès: This is the district that surrounds the Girona district. And basically, this is just a leftovers district that cleans everything that was not put into a coherent district. Anyways, this is still a rural Catalonia district so you can guess how it votes
Safe Nationalist

Selva Sud: Finally a district that is minimally interesting as this time at least we have some unionist base somewhere. In this case, we have it in the 2 tourist towns of Blanes and Lloret de Mar (in general, super touristy beach areas in Catalonia lean unionist). These 2 towns actually account for 59% of the district, but they are outvoted by the uber nationalist rural areas. Still, this should easily be the most competitive district but it is probably not enough for this to flip or even to get to lean territory
Safe Nationalist

Totals
13 Safe Left
12 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
16 Safe Nationalist
(25-64-17)

[Former President tack50]

The next province is the province of Córdoba in southern Spain. This was fairly straightforward to draw, though I fear that the results won't be clear so I have added an inset of Córdoba city

Córdoba (6 seats, 130k people/seat)





Valles del Alto Guadalquivir: This is the northernmost district, taking in the upper Guadalquivir area as well as the valleys of some of its tributaries. This is rural Andalucia and an agricultural district centered just south of Sierra Morena. However this being the northernmost district the results for the left are less stellar than you might expect (the western part of this district leans right, the eastern one leans left). In any case the left won this but it was close
Lean left

Afueras de Córdoba y Medio Guadalquivir: The 2nd of the 4 rural districts, this was my leftovers district. This takes in the areas a bit further downstream and much of the Guadalquivir river valley in this area, with the exception of most of Córdoba city. This district does however take a small part of Córdoba city which happens to be left leaning (most of Córdoba is conservative) and the rural areas here are the most left wing in the province. So the result here is obvious
Safe left

Córdoba-Oeste: This takes the western 40% of Córdoba city, which happens to be the most conservative parts of town. With the exception of a couple precincts this is uniformly deep blue territory and very conservative. The right definitely broke 60% here
Safe Right

Córdoba - Este: Conversely, this takes the eastern 40% of Córdoba city. This happens to take many left wing and competitive areas, particularly in the eastern part of the district where the left wins. However it gets outvoted by the narrowly right wing middle and especially the very conservative western parts of the district, so the right won here, but the margin must have been narrow
Lean Right

Campiña Cordobesa: Centered around the 2 "Campiña" provinces, which are agricultural in nature, the 3rd of the 4 rural districts, this district is almost uniformly left wing and by quite decent margins as well. This is rural Andalucia so this is not a surprise but still
Safe Left

Subbética: The southernmost district, taking in only the comarca of Subbética. Now, if you wanted a surprise, here it is. Despite all odds for a rural Andalusian district, this district is actually a rural district that is safe for the right? It is not exactly overwhelmingly right but it certainly won here by at least low double digits. This was certainly an interesting result to say the least
Safe Right

Totals
15 Safe Left
13 Lean Left
10 Lean Right
57 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
16 Safe Nationalist
(28-67-17)

[Former President tack50]

Why has the Red Cordoba died?

Córdoba, much like the rest of Andalucia, has been trending to the right for quite a while now for a variety of reasons, and this trend has accelerated in the past few years, mostly due to the Catalan issue.

Though indeed Cordoba for the longest time was an IU stronghold, especially in the times of the "Red Caliph", Julio Anguita, who was mayor of the city in the 80s.

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of the Catalans, the next province is actually located there Also the last 6 seater province. This was relatively hard to draw and I had to eyeball 2 rural districts

Tarragona (6 seats, 135k people/seat)



Delta d'Ebre: This is the southernmost district, centered around the Ebro river delta. This is a natural protection area, but also an agricultural area. As you may expect from rural Catalonia, this is safe for the nationalists. Though I will say that this is probably the only area of rural Catalonia that is really "Ancestrally ERC", instead of "Ancestrally CiU". ERC has always performed really well here
Safe Nationalist

Baix Camp - Rivera d'Ebre: This was one of my 2 rural leftovers districts, this one taking the coastal areas south of Reus and then just sprawling inland. The coastal areas are a bit more competitive and their economy is based on tourism. Still, this is safe for the nationalists as even those coastal areas, with the exception of Salou (home to Port Aventura theme park, which I think is the biggest in all of Spain), get outvoted by the rurals
Safe Nationalist

Alt Camp - Tarragonès: This was the 2nd rural leftovers district, taking this time the rural comarcas of Alt Camp and Conca de Barberà, as well as the "suburbs/exurbs" of the Tarragona-Reus area and the rural inland bits of the Baix Camp area. Basically the northern rural district. You can see why this was a bit eyeballed Anyways again this is rural Catalonia so this is secessionist territory
Safe Nationalist

Reus: This takes in the town of Reus, as well as taking 2 nearby towns (Vila-seca and La Canoja). Reus is one of the 2 "nucleus" that form the Tarragona-Reus metropolitan area (this is the usual case of 2 cities growing and ending up merging or at least interacting heavily). Reus is the more nationalist of the 2 it seems as well as a tiny bit smaller and being inland. Anyways I was able to calculate a full result for this and it was a close battle, with nationalists getting 38%, the left getting 34% and the right getting 27%.
Lean Nationalist

Tarragona: This district is simple and it just takes the town of Tarragona, the slightly bigger of the 2 towns forming the contiguous metropolitan area as well as the provincial capital. Tarragona seems to be slightly more unionist though the difference is small. Still, in a close election it matters and a lot, as this was essencially a 3 way tossup! It ended up falling for the left by the narrowest of margins: 35% Left, 34% nationalist, 29% Right. So yeah, very competitive indeed
Lean left

Baix Penedès: In an incredibly surprising twist for rural Catalonia, this district, taking in the Baix Penedès area and some towns and suburbs of Tarragona actually votes for the left! For some reason, in the area near the border with Barcelona there is quite a bit of left wing strength that I can't really explain (this is too far to function as a Barcelona suburb and the towns actually across the border are secessionist). I suppose the coastal tourist towns here outvote the secessionist inland? (though like I said this does not explain the tiny pocket of rural unionist strength). The Penedès area is also known for its wine though the rural bits are secessionist so I have nothing here. Worth noting that the margin is far from overwhelming, but it's still a left wing district; the most left-unionist in the province in fact (though not necesarily the most unionist, I think Tarragona still takes that title)
Lean left

Totals
15 Safe Left
15 Lean Left
10 Lean Right
57 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
19 Safe Nationalist
(30-67-21)

[Former President tack50]

Ok, next province and this one was a pain. First, it was the first 7 seater province, so it took quite long (in fact I wonder when will I have to start splitting provinces into 2)

Secondly, I had to manually add up municipalities in the "Vega de Granada" county since I did not want to eyeball it as it had too much population. Oh and I did a small gerrymander (still neat looking I suppose). Anyways, here it goes

Granada (7 seats, 130k people/seat)



Costa Tropical: This is the southern coastal seat, comprising pretty much just the narrow coastal strip and centered around the town of Motril. This district is also touristy and what not. However unlike its neighbours in the east it also seems a bit more moderate, with Motril itself being reasonably close. Though ironically almost no municipalities here voted for the left. Anyways this is borderline between lean and safe but still
Lean Right

Loja - Alpujarra Granadina: This district is just to the north of the Costa Tropical one and this was indeed just a rural leftovers district as you may assume. The eastern part of the district is sparsely populated (it's really just a narrow strip in the mountains) and leans ever so slightly right. Most of the population lives in the western part, which leans left, although the margin is quite close
Lean Left

Vega de Granada Sur: This is the southern of the 2 districts that you could call "Suburban Granada". Anyways, the towns in here are all voting for the right by more than 10 points for the most part, so this is a safe suburban conservative seat for the right
Safe Right

Ciudad de Granada Sur: Entering now Granada proper, this district takes the southern half of the city. And I will not lie, I did a gerrymander here, as I split the city center in an S shape rather than perfectly straight. In this way, the uber conservative old town is in this district, while the poor areas around Albaicin are on the northern district. This therefore makes this district quite the conservative pack and this voted for the right in a landslide
Safe Right

Ciudad de Granada Norte: The mirror of the previous district, this takes in the northern half of Granada city. And like I said, a small amount of gerrymandering here means that this district leans unduly to the left, though it is still competitive. The parts of the city center in here are super conservative but the outer northern parts are quite heavily leftist. In a fair map this might be lean right, but here, the question is whether it is lean or safe for the left (I put it at lean, but it could easily be safe)
Lean Left

Vega de Granada Norte: The northern suburban district in Granada, the far western parts of this district are titanium for the left, while the rest of the district is more competitive, but still leans left. Anyways, this is probably the most left wing of the districts, having just the right balance of working class rural and suburban areas
Safe left

Guadix y Baza: This is the northeastern "panhandle" district. Like the previous district, the furthest west areas here are super left wing, giving the left north of 70% of the vote. The eastern areas meanwhile lean to the right here actually though not by much. These western areas are left wing enough that the whole district votes for the left, though it does not vote overwhelmingly for the left
Lean Left

Totals
16 Safe Left
18 Lean Left
11 Lean Right
58 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
19 Safe Nationalist
(34-70-21)

[Former President tack50]

Bumping this on purpose to announce that I actually did manage to finish this project despite me not posting about it here.

The end result was an upset win by the left albeit one that was also a fluke with lots of narrow wins. The end result was as follows:

Safe Right: 127
Lean Right: 25
Lean Left: 71
Safe Left: 82
Lean nationalist: 5
Safe Nationalist: 39

And here is my analysis of the remaining provinces, all in spoiler tags:

Pontevedra (7 seats)

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Baixo Minho: Comprises various towns on the southwest of Pontevedra province, covering Baixo Minho county and gets all the way to Vigo. This is a very competitive district that leans left

O Condado: Covers the southeastern part of the province in O Condado, A Paradanta and part of Vigo counties (and a couple extra municipalities). Again very competitive and ends up narrowly going for the left

Vigo Sur: The southern half of Vigo city. Vigo is the most left wing town in Galicia so this unsurprisingly goes for the left

Vigo Norte: The northern half of Vigo city. Again Vigo is a very left wing city and this goes for the left, even if it is the more marginal of the 2 seats

O Morrazo - Pontevedra Sur: In order not to have a district that crosses a bridge I was forced to split Pontevedra city. Anyways, this takes in the southern half of Pontevedra, as well as O Morrazo county. A very competitive district that goes to the left

Pontevedra Norte - El Salnés: This takes in the remainder of Pontevedra county and El Salnés county, minus the town of Vilagarcía de Arousa. If Spain actually did use FPTP; this is the district former PM Mariano Rajoy would have likely represented in Congress

Deza - Vilagarcía de Arousa: This takes in the remainder of Pontevedra province, including its "panhandle". Much like the rest of inner rural Galicia, this is a conservative, PP voting area

Zaragoza (7 seats)

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Zaragoza metro area inset



Zaragoza Norte: Comprises the nwards of Actur, Rey Fernando and El Rabal; north of the Ebro river. Safe left (55-45)

Zaragoza - Delicias: Comprises the wards of Delicias and La Almozara to the west. Safe left, but competitive (53-47)

Zaragoza - Centro: Comprises the central wards of Centro, Casco Antiguo and extends east to Fuentes. Safe Right (42-58)

Zaragoza - Sur: Comprises the sourthern wards of Universidad, Casablanca and Distrito Sur. Safe Right

Zaragoza - Este: This district is made up of various wards and "pedanías" to the east of Zaragoza, including San José, Torrero-La Paz, Cartuja Baja and others. Lean left (52-48)

Zaragoza Oeste y Cinco Villas: This district is made up of the remainder of Zaragoza city (yes, Zaragoza is so populated vs the rural areas that it gets a whopping 5 and a half districts) and the rural counties of Cinco Villas and Rivera alta del Ebro. Rural Aragon is surprisingly competitive so this ends up as lean left

Ribera Baja del Ebro y Calatayud: This takes in the remainder of Zaragoza province. Safe right.

Santa Cruz de Tenerife (8 seats)

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La Palma, La Gomera y El Hierro: A district not pictured, this is made up simply of the 3 western islands of La Palma, La Gomera and El Hierro. This is safe for the left as it voted 47L-37R-16N

Santa Cruz de Tenerife: This district covers roughly the 3/4 of Santa Cruz de Tenerife city that belong to the "city proper", excluding the rural areas in and around Anaga. I called this as lean left but it is hard to say

San Cristobal de La Laguna: This covers the town of San Cristobal de La Laguna, except for the northern rural bits. Safe left at 46-35-19

Anaga: This ugly wraparound district covers the remainder of Santa Cruz de Tenerife and La Laguna, as well as the town of Tacoronte. Lean left but again very hard to say

Puerto de La Cruz - La Orotava: This takes in various northern towns across the northern coast of Tenerife, from El Sauzal to the eastern half of Los Realejos. It also takes the inland part of Tenerife, but that is uninhabited so it does not really matter (Teide National Park). Safe left, but competitive at 42-36-22

Noroeste de Tenerife: This takes in the northwest parts of Tenerife, from Adeje to Los Realejos. Lean left at 44-41-15

Candelaria - Granadilla de Abona: This district covers Tenerife's soutehrn coast, from El Rosario in the suburbs of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, to Granadilla. Safe left but competitive at 45-39-17

Arona: This district covers the towns of San Miguel, Arona and about half of Adeje municipality. Lean left at roughtly 45-43-13

Asturias (7 seats)

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Gijón Centro: This takes in the centralmost areas of Gijón city, including Centro; Gijón Este and El Llano. Safe right, but competitive (roughly 54-46 or so)

Gijón Afueras: This is a district made up of the remainder of Gijón municipality as well as the municipalities of Carreño and Gozón. Safe left.

Avilés: This district is made up of Avilés' judicial party (minus the municipality of Gozón); plus the municipality of Pravia. Safe left

Oviedo Centro: This district is made up of the downtown 2/3 or so of Oviedo city. This is safe for the right as Asturias is one of those places with right wing cities and left wing rurals thanks to mining being a strong influence here.

Comarca de Oviedo: This takes in the remainder of Oviedo judicial party, as well as Siero judicial party. Siero is a mining area and therefore it is able to counteract barely the Oviedo area, leaving this as lean left

Oriente y Nalón: This takes in the eastern half of rural Asturias. A bit of a gerrymander since we are splitting the titanium left areas but whatever. This ends up as safe left

Narcea y Mieres: This takes in the western half of rural Asturias. Again the mining areas and what not help us to have this as safe left

Las Palmas (8 seats)

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Hilariously, my home province ends up as reverso Florida; with a ton of titanium tilt left districts



Lanzarote: The first of 2 not pictured districts. This takes in Lanzarote island and ends up as safe left, voting 48-36-16

Fuerteventura: The second of the 2 not pictured districts, this takes in Fuerteventura island and voted 41-37-21 for the left, leaving it as lean left.

Las Palmas - Ciudad baja: This takes in the ward of Isleta-Puerto-Guanarteme and the coastal parts of the Centro district. La Isleta is very heavily left wing, and there are some other competitive areas, but some of the most right wing areas of the city are in this district too. I ended up calling it lean left but who knows

Las Palmas - Ciudad Alta: This takes in the remainder of Centro district and the Ciudad Alta district. This is a heavily left wing district that is safe left.

Las Palmas - Cono Sur y Tamaraceite: This takes in the remainder of Las Palmas city, as well as the municipalities of Teror and Santa Brígida. This is a very hard to call district which I ended up placing as lean left. This is also particularly sad that I am not 100% sure because it would be my home district

Telde: This is the first district in the "GC-1 corridor" along the east, taking Telde, Ingenio and Valsequillo. It ends up as lean left (45-43)

Vecindario: This takes in the rest of the GC-1 corridor, taking in Santa Lucía de Tirajana, Agüimes and about half of the super touristy area of San Bartolomé de Tirajana. Lean left (46-42-12)

Gáldar: This takes in the remainder of Gran Canaria island, including the entirety of the north coast, the sparsely populated west and the mountainous interior. It ends up as lean left (46-41-13)

[Former President tack50]

By the way, I am going to ask, do yo want me to keep doing the write-ups?

Unlike up until now I don't think I'll be able to provide much information that I didn't say before. To watch the full map, just look at the link in there, and most of the information I would put in the write-ups would be there.

Here is a final, global picture, at the best resolution I was able to get

[Former President tack50]

Congratulations for completing this project! Not sure what you mean by write-ups, but I am interested.

Oh well, I did actually end up posting the maps based on that on this forum. Lol

Basically if you want me to write a profile of each district or not. Since I wouldn't be doing these "live" the information I can provide is a lot more limited since I don't remember anymore what areas voted how