Spain FPTP simulation
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Former President tack50
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« on: July 02, 2020, 05:57:44 AM »

Ok, not really sure where to post this, but I have decided to start doing an FPTP simulation of Spain. Not sure how far I will get anyways, but here go some results

First of all, here is the apportionment. I did the apportionment based on a simple rule: 1 seat minimum for each of the 50 provinces+Ceuta and Melilla. Then I did the remaining 298 seats proportionally.

This actually meant that my parliament actually has 349 seats instead of 350 because I did not use D'Hondt or any similar method, I just divided the population by the number of seats. I could have used another method but that was the simplest. If I was going to give out the final seat, it would go to the province of Cáceres (which would have 4 seats as opposed to 3)

This method still means a more proportional representation than the Spanish Congress irl (which uses a minimum of 2 seats per province and not 1).

Anyways here is the apportionment.

Apportionment



Yes, Soria, Ceuta and Melilla are still (barely) entitled to 2 districts each with this method and do not have to resort to being 1 at-large district

I will also note that because of how I am making this maps I am almost certain to have big population deviations between districts, even within a single province but oh well. Doing a project like this is already enough of a pain Tongue

Finally in terms of partisanship I will be making educated guesses, though I will just limit myself to Safe/Lean left or right, or Safe/lean nationalist (for Catalonia/Basque Country, where I will just add up the numbers for the nationalists as though they were a third party) I may also use some tossups.

Here is a link to the project as I make it, though I will also upload it to Atlas: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1he7WZ-MxM5sqxdxSrHPJBZLuBJxKJlQL&usp=sharing
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 06:02:18 AM »

Melilla (2 seats)



Melilla Norte: Basically comprises the northern half of the town of Melilla. This is the heavily muslim part of the town, and therefore should be a safe seat for the left.
Safe Left

Melilla Sur: Conversely, this makes up the other half of the town of Melilla. The southern half of town is the majority non-muslim and therefore makes for a very right wing seat.
Safe Right

Totals:
1 Safe Left
1 Safe Right
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 06:07:59 AM »

Ceuta (2 seats)



Península de Ceuta: This seat comprises again the heavily non-muslim parts of the Ceuta peninsula and the old town, roughly comprising about half of town. Because of Ceuta voting mostly on religious lines and what not, this is a Safe district for the right
Safe Right

Ceuta interior: On the flip side, this seat represents the half of Ceuta that is closest to the border with Morocco. And as you may expect, this is the more heavily muslim part of town and therefore leans left. However, because of Ceuta having an overall lower muslim population this also takes several non-muslim neighbourhoods in the east, so I think this seat, while leaning left, would certainly be close
Lean Left

Totals
1 Safe Left
1 Lean Left
2 Safe Right
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2020, 06:08:39 AM »

Wait so you're creating districts instead of assigning just seats to provinces? That sounds like it'll take a lot of work.

Except in my province, which has 2 districts and literally half of the population lives in the capital city, so that one should be easy.

Also, if it's FPTP, wouldn't that complicate projections a bit? For example, right-leaning places would be won by the PSOE since the right is still split in three.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 06:33:36 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 06:36:50 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

Wait so you're creating districts instead of assigning just seats to provinces? That sounds like it'll take a lot of work.

Except in my province, which has 2 districts and literally half of the population lives in the capital city, so that one should be easy.

Also, if it's FPTP, wouldn't that complicate projections a bit? For example, right-leaning places would be won by the PSOE since the right is still split in three.

Yeah, creating districts. And yes it takes a ton of work indeed. I actually started a project like this way back in the day but abandoned it because it was too much work Tongue (plus at the time I had no way to split municipalities even in a super approximate basis. Now I think I do). Population deviations will still be huge due to this being very rought and approximate but it still gives an idea of how Spain would look like under FPTP (indeed I am calculating bloc results instead of party results since we'd probably still have a 2 party system under FPTP)

I will start with the smaller provinces and go up from there so I wonder how far I will get tbh. Which means yes, your province will be one of the early ones and probably very simple Tongue (tbh thankfully Castille-Leon has a very low population, otherwise it'd be hell with all the tiny villages)

I am doing a "bloc" simulation instead of doing it by party, going off the Eldiario's maps by bloc for the November 2019 election. By party it would actually be slightly easier since the Catalonia/Basque Country results would be a lot easier to calculate rather than just "educated guesses". (there are a couple maps of "secessionists vs unionists" for Catalonia but those do not translate into a 3 way race like I want there though I am open for suggestions)

I would not really look at the party numbers too closely as they are very much educated guesses except in super safe areas. I have no real way to calculate the true party or bloc numbers unless I happen to find municipalities that fit exactly into 1 district. So most of the time I will just make a guess (indeed, I have no real way to know how "Ceuta interior" really voted, it might have voted for the right instead of the left, but I think it voted for the left so it goes into lean left).

Just keep in mind the party identifications will be incredibly rough and pay more attention to the districts themselves I suppose
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 06:43:13 AM »

Soria (2 seats)



Villa de Soria: This is basically just the small town of Soria, the provincial capital. And in probably one of the most surprising results, this small rural Castillan town actually leans left! It is not by much however. Since this is a single municipality I can say this voted for the left 50-46 so the lean is not huge but it is there. Plus this is one of the few results I can be certain of.
Lean left

Campo de Soria: This essencially just is the rural leftovers district, taking in the rest of Soria province. Soria is a relatively left wing province (for rural Castille standards at least) but this district was still won by the right by more than 10 points most likely and is not winnable for the left.
Safe right

Total
1 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
3 Safe Right
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 07:06:26 AM »

Teruel (2 seats)



The 3rd province in question is Teruel and I think this is a good example of the problems you face when doing a project like this.

First of all, how do you treat regionalist parties? In this case, for the sake of my sanity I will use the convention Eldiario uses. In this case, they place Teruel Existe alongside the left, so I will treat them as part of the PSOE-UP bloc. This is very inaccurate but there aren't really many alternatives

Also, for the sake of neat districts, I will place the "geographical anomalies" like Ademuz or Treviño in districts outside their province. This means I will place Ademuz as part of Teruel and Treviño as part of Álava, among others.

Anyways here are the districts:

Provincia de Teruel-Sur: This is the Southern two thirds of the province, which are more sparsely populated, including more mountainous areas. However this also includes the provincial capital of Teruel. (The comarcas of Teruel, Albarracín, Javalambre and Maestrazgo). If treating TEx as a separate third bloc, because of their great results in the capital this probably voted for TEx. Merging them into the broader left just creates a safe left district
Safe Left

Provincia de Teruel-Norte: Conversely this is the marginally more densely populated northern third of the province with the other comarcas not mentioned, and is roughly organized along roads N-211 and N-420. This would be an interesting 3 way battle, but merging the left and TEx instead creates yet another safe left district.
Safe Left

Total
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
3 Safe Right
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 07:17:00 AM »

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2020, 07:20:42 AM »

Segovia (2 seats)



This is a decent example of how things can get tough to draw. Basically here the town of Segovia is too small, but the partido judicial (the only real division I could find other than the municipalities themselves) is way too large.

End result is I end up drawing a very rough approximation looking at some neighbouring medium sized towns.

This is why the districts in several cases will end up under/overpopulated. I am just not going to bother adding up dozens of rural small towns Tongue (I will normally use the comarcas as my building blocks, with few exceptions)

Anyways here are the districts:

Villa y Tierra de Segovia: This comprises the provincial capital of Segovia, as well as several nearby towns along the border with Madrid. I suppose this sort of can function as a weird exurb of Madrid, though it is certainly too far to commute daily to central Madrid. Anyways, because of this it is the more relatively left wing of the 2, though it was still won by the right by like 15 points
Safe Right

Campo de Segovia: The rural leftovers district, this is essencially deep rural Castille, and therefore is deeply conservative. Not much else to see here
Safe Right

Totals
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
5 Safe Right
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2020, 07:24:13 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 07:27:33 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.

I mean, I will try to draw mostly fair districts Tongue (though if I do draw a gerrymander I will certainly mention it)

Re: Valladolid, I think there will most likely be 2 districts in Valladolid, and one of them is probably competitive though it will depend on how I end up drawing it I suppose. Valladolid city is slightly too big for 2 districts though most likely I will end up overpopulating those 2 and underpopulating the 2 rural ones.

From a quick look at Valladolid, most likely there will be a safe Right district and some form of a competitive district, regardless of how I do my division (of course if Spain was the US, I'd expect Valladolid to just get gerrymandered Tongue )

In Castille-Leon at large I suppose there will be probably be 1-2 Left wing seats in Western Leon and as you say possibly 1 competitive district in Valladolid in addition to the surprisingly competitive Soria.
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2020, 07:43:09 AM »

Ávila (2 seats)

This was drawn in a very similar manner to Segovia, so very rough



Ávila-Villa: The town of Ávila plus several neighbouring small towns. Ávila is a super conservative small town, even by rural Castille standards to the left has nothing to do here. I will say though that if applied retroactively this was probably the district that former PM Adolfo Suárez would have represented in Congress. Anyways Safe Right.
Safe Right

Ávila-Sierra de Gredos: This meanwhile is the more rural parts of the province. Again nothing to see here, it is uber conservative rural Castille. This may or may not have been the district former PM Aznar would have hypothetically represented in Congress though. Again Safe Right
Safe Right

Total
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
7 Safe Right
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2020, 07:45:52 AM »

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.

I mean, I will try to draw mostly fair districts Tongue (though if I do draw a gerrymander I will certainly mention it)

Re: Valladolid, I think there will most likely be 2 districts in Valladolid, and one of them is probably competitive though it will depend on how I end up drawing it I suppose. Valladolid city is slightly too big for 2 districts though most likely I will end up overpopulating those 2 and underpopulating the 2 rural ones.

From a quick look at Valladolid, most likely there will be a safe Right district and some form of a competitive district, regardless of how I do my division (of course if Spain was the US, I'd expect Valladolid to just get gerrymandered Tongue )

In Castille-Leon at large I suppose there will be probably be 1-2 Left wing seats in Western Leon and as you say possibly 1 competitive district in Valladolid in addition to the surprisingly competitive Soria.


If you allow a suggestion, the Parquesol neighborhood, which has distinct limits, is 26k in population, and you could draw it along other suburban municipalities of Valladolid so that the city doesn't get overrepresented.
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2020, 01:48:24 PM »

I recall visiting Avila one evening while studying Spanish in Madrid way back in the 1980's. Beautiful walled town.  Any reason that it is so conservative aside from being in rural Castile?
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« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2020, 01:49:57 PM »

I recall visiting Avila one evening while studying Spanish in Madrid way back in the 1980's. Beautiful walled town.  Any reason that it is so conservative aside from being in rural Castile?

I cannot really think of anything. Avila is the most right wing province in all of Spain, alongside neighbouring Salamanca and possibly Murcia.

But other than being in rural Castille I cannot think of any reason why it'd be that much more conservative. I suppose it probably comes down to what exact industry dominates the province or something like that, beyond general farming and what not. But I do not have an exact answer.

Ávila is indeed a beautiful walled town inded though Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 02:40:08 PM »

Anyways here go more provinces:

Palencia (2 seats)



Skye's home province and indeed it is just as boring as he promised Tongue

Ciudad de Palencia: This comprises just the municipality of the provincial capital of Palencia and nothing else. This is just marginally competitive on paper, being won by the right 54-44, though still safe pretty much
Safe Right

Campo de Palencia: And this is again the rural leftovers district. Not much to see here, just rural Castillian towns as far as the eye can see. Obviously safe for the right
Safe Right



Zamora (2 seats)



Tierra del Pan y el Vino: This probably has the most awesome constituency name in the world (Land of the Bread and the Wine) Tongue Anyways this just contains the comarcas of the provincial capital (Tierra del Pan) and the nearby Tierra del Vino comarca for population adjustment. Anyways being rural Castille this is safe for the right
Safe Right

Campo Zamorano: And again this is the rural leftovers district, which this time happens to be a bit awkwardly shaped, taking the border with Portugal and the other end of the province. The more right wing of the 2 districts, this is obviously safe for the right.
Safe Right



Cuenca (2 districts)

This one was a pain to draw since I was drawing almost completely blind. Though I think much harder provinces will eventually come Tongue  I ended up finally making it but damn this was a pain, and I still think the western district is very much underpopulated.



La Alcarria-Mancha Conquense: This is Castille-La Mancha and not Castille-Leon, so now the rurals are slightly more left wing. (along many other soon to come districts). If you ever read Don Quixote, this would be  where it takes place. Rural fields with windmills that look like giants and what not. Not like it matters much since this takes pretty much the most right wing areas of the province.
Safe Right

La Manchuela-Serranía de Cuenca: This takes the eastern half of the province, including the Serranía mountains and the provincial capital of Cuenca. While this still voted for the right, it did so by around 7 points most likely. So in some hypothetical left wing wave this could flip, though it is still to right wing and too clear cut for me to categorize this as anything other than safe.
Safe Right



Huesca (2 seats)

The final 2 seater province and finally we get some competitive districts.



Hoya de Huesca: This district essencially takes the more competitive western half of the province, comprising the provincial capital of Huesca, the town of Jaca (close to several ski resorts) and nearby rurals. The left won both Jaca and Huesca very narrowly and also seems to have won on the rurals. So despite what you may expect from a rural district, this district probably votes for the left by a bit. This is probably closer to Tossup than lean, but whatever.
Lean Left

Barbastro, Fraga, Monte Perdido y Monzón: This awkwardly named district takes the eastern half of the province, including most of the Catalan-speaking areas of Aragon. These areas voted for the left but they are tiny so they can be ignored. Meanwhile most population centers here voted for the right by around 6-7 points and the rurals seem evenly split, which leads me to classify this as a Safe Right district, although much like the earlier Cuenca one, it would be competitive and close
Safe Right

Totals
3 Safe Left
3 Lean Left
14 Safe Right
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« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2020, 11:03:10 AM »

With the 2 seater provinces done, it is now time to start with those with 3 seats:

Guadalajara (3 seats, 86k people/seat)

Nothing really special about this province other than the incredibly unequal population distribution, which can be noticed with a simple look at the map.



Guadalajara: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Guadalajara. The suburbs/ of Madrid really end around here, and Guadalajara city itself has a commuter rail (Cercanías) connection to Madrid. Anyways this voted 42-55 for the right and is safe
Safe Right

Azuqueca de Henares: This district comprises pretty much the remaining towns in the "Henares Corridor" that keeps going into Madrid, between Guadalajara city and the provincial border.  This is marginally more left wing than Guadalajara city, but barely so, and is still safe.
Safe Right

Serranía de Guadalajara-Señorío de Aragón: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, and in fact is a strong candidate for the largest district in terms of land area. This is a very sparsely populated rural area with some mountains in the north and east. The easternmost parts of the district, around Molina de Aragón, is surprisingly left wing, though it almost certainly gets outvoted by the rest of the district.
Safe Right



Ourense (3 seats, 103k people/seat)

Again nothing really notable about this province, fairly basic stuff



Ourense: This district comprises the provincial capital of Ourense. Galicia has relatively standard urban vs rural dynamics and therefore this is a safe left district, which went left by 55-44
Safe Left

Carballiño-O Ribeiro: A slightly more interesting district, this essencially takes the rural areas around Ourense, including the rural remainder of Ourense's comarca and that corner of the province. Being this is rural Galicia, this went easily for the right
Safe Right

Verin e Allariz: This takes the remainder of Ourense province, centered around the towns of Allariz and Verin. The eastern parts of this district are surprisingly tight, though the west is just as conservative as you'd expect
Safe Right



La Rioja

This province had some difficulties. First of all, Logroño was entitled to roughly 1.5 districts. Secondly, this is the first time I have had to deal with the issue of communities of interest and road contiguity. I ended up taking a district for the inner 2/3 of Logroño, and then dividing the rest into 2. However my original plan (a "Logroño Outer" and "rural leftovers" districts) had the rural leftovers district non-contiguous by road (other than maybe a few dirt roads)

End result is I had to redo those 2 districts. Nothing major but it shows some difficulties.

The Logroño split also shows why a project like this was not possible until only a year ago or so (traditionally Spanish news outlets did not show result maps by precinct, so you were unable to split municipalities too large to fit into 1 district)

Anyways here is the map



Logroño Centro: This is a tiny bit of a gerrymander, though not a major one. This basically takes the innermost 2/3 of Logroño city, with a bit more so that it touches the border with the Basque Country. These suburbs are almost all right wing (albeit not by that much), and since Logroño at-large was already quite tight to begin with, this district must have been extremely close. I decided to place this as Lean Right, but it must have been extremely competitive
Lean Right

Rioja Alta-Logroño Afueras: This takes the suburbs I took out of Logroño city, as well as the western third of the province. Looks like a bit of a tentacle because well, it is Tongue Anyways, this certainly voted for the right
Safe Right

Rioja Baja: Meanwhile this takes the rest of the province, the rural eastern 2/3. La Rioja is a bit more left wing than Castille but again this certainly voted for the right
Safe Right



Lugo



Lugo: As per usual, this takes the provincial capital of Lugo. And much like Ourense and for very similar reasons, this voted for the left although it was slightly competitive at 53-46
Safe Left

A Mariña-Terra Chá: This takes the 3 A Mariña comarcas in Lugo's coast as well as the Terra Chá comarca. The map does not really do it justice as I think I messed up the drawing. Regardless, this district has a very much decent left wing base in the coast while the interior is conservative. I am actually not sure which side won here, this was very much a fair fight. I think the right won but I would not be surprised if the left won either
Lean Right

Ribeira Sacra: Meanwhile this takes the southern and eastern rurals of Lugo province. And unlike the previous district, there is much less of a left wing base here and this voted clearly for the right
Safe Right

Totals
5 Safe Left
3 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
22 Safe Right
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2020, 11:19:05 AM »

 I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.
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« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2020, 11:39:15 AM »

I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.

Well, for Catalonia/Basque country I think I will essencially just do 3 way races between "the right", "the left" and "the separatists/nationalists". In practice this will make it a lot harder to guess the partisanship of the districts though, but I think is the fairest way to guess the partisanship there.

As for the Canaries, they are in a very awkward position. I really do not know what to do. The easiest solution would probably to just go with April results instead of November, and then merge CC into the right and NCa into the left. Though I could also treat them separately or something.

For what is worth, in Galicia and Teruel I just went with the convention eldiario.es uses (where BNG and TEx got merged into the left). If you separate them the Galicia districts all become quite a bit more right wing and the Teruel ones become interesting 3 way races.
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« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2020, 11:53:59 AM »

I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.

Well, for Catalonia/Basque country I think I will essencially just do 3 way races between "the right", "the left" and "the separatists/nationalists". In practice this will make it a lot harder to guess the partisanship of the districts though, but I think is the fairest way to guess the partisanship there.

As for the Canaries, they are in a very awkward position. I really do not know what to do. The easiest solution would probably to just go with April results instead of November, and then merge CC into the right and NCa into the left. Though I could also treat them separately or something.

For what is worth, in Galicia and Teruel I just went with the convention eldiario.es uses (where BNG and TEx got merged into the left). If you separate them the Galicia districts all become quite a bit more right wing and the Teruel ones become interesting 3 way races.

I think this is a good base plan. Galicia is fine, especially when we consider that everyone would have to team up to dethrone the PP locally. If the local party ended up backing the PSOE govt without any serious reservations then they are probably safe to be considered part of the combined left - obviously with the key exception of PNV. This sort of distinction leaves PRC as the odd one out, but maybe they are best seen as part of the regionalism block with JxC, PNV, and the rest.
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« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2020, 12:21:11 PM »

I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.

Well, for Catalonia/Basque country I think I will essencially just do 3 way races between "the right", "the left" and "the separatists/nationalists". In practice this will make it a lot harder to guess the partisanship of the districts though, but I think is the fairest way to guess the partisanship there.

As for the Canaries, they are in a very awkward position. I really do not know what to do. The easiest solution would probably to just go with April results instead of November, and then merge CC into the right and NCa into the left. Though I could also treat them separately or something.

For what is worth, in Galicia and Teruel I just went with the convention eldiario.es uses (where BNG and TEx got merged into the left). If you separate them the Galicia districts all become quite a bit more right wing and the Teruel ones become interesting 3 way races.

I think this is a good base plan. Galicia is fine, especially when we consider that everyone would have to team up to dethrone the PP locally. If the local party ended up backing the PSOE govt without any serious reservations then they are probably safe to be considered part of the combined left - obviously with the key exception of PNV. This sort of distinction leaves PRC as the odd one out, but maybe they are best seen as part of the regionalism block with JxC, PNV, and the rest.

This creates a bit of a problem in Teruel IMO, since Teruel Existe voted for the Sánchez govt. It's true that Tack already packed them with the left ,but if so, the province would have gone from a clear Right win in April to a Left wing landslide in November (Eldiario.es has a swing map that shows this very clearly). It feels unrealistic if you ask me but I understand there may not be a definitive answer to the issue.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2020, 01:06:58 PM »

This creates a bit of a problem in Teruel IMO, since Teruel Existe voted for the Sánchez govt. It's true that Tack already packed them with the left ,but if so, the province would have gone from a clear Right win in April to a Left wing landslide in November (Eldiario.es has a swing map that shows this very clearly). It feels unrealistic if you ask me but I understand there may not be a definitive answer to the issue.

Yeah I agree that there is no real definitive answer. The reason I plopped them with the left is simply that simulating 2 way races is much easier than 3 way races. On a 2 way you can just look at the maps provided by several outlets while in 3 way races you have to make much bigger guesses.

If I went with April results, indeed both Teruel districts would be safe for the right (with the northern district a bit more competitive than the Southern one)

And if I did a 3 way race, like I mentioned the southern district would be essencially safe for TEx, while the northern district would be probably a tight 3 way race between PP, PSOE and TEx (I think PSOE narrowly wins but who knows, I'd certainly classify it as a tossup because of a lack of information)

Cantabria will be even worse to do however, as PRC is not strong enough to win any districts I think unless I did some big gerrymanders, so it will be either a left wing sweep or a right wing sweep just depenedent on what I do to PRC's vote. Though I guess I will deal with that when I get there Tongue
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« Reply #21 on: July 04, 2020, 06:39:20 AM »

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.
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« Reply #22 on: July 04, 2020, 07:15:54 AM »

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.

Well, I treated them as though they were provinces. In which case, they have a population very similar to Soria, so all 3 end up entitled to 2 districts.

When dividing the 298 seats proportionally, you end up with Ceuta and Melilla both entitled to something like 0.52 seats, which rounded up to 1, plus the extra minimum seat means they get 2.
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« Reply #23 on: July 04, 2020, 04:31:19 PM »

Ok, 2 more provinces today which could not be more different from each other. Also one of them is the first "nationalist" province and it was just as hard as I expected to guess the partisanship, if not harder so take the partisanships I estimated with even more caution except in the super duper safe seats:

Salamanca (3 seats, 110k people/seat)

A bit more challenging than usual to draw do to a lack of information on its comarcas, though it was certainly manegable.



Salamanca: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Salamanca. While Salamanca is a university town of sorts, that means nothing in Spain so it just votes like most other rural Castillian towns and went for the right by something like 20 points.
Safe Right

Sierras de Salamanca-Tierra de Ledesma: This district covers the mountains located on the south, goes along the border with Portugal and then takes the northern parts of the province. This is still rural Castille and it went for the right by a bit more than the urban district.
Safe Right

Campo Charro-Tierra de Peñaranda: This district contains the eastern parts of the province just south of Salamanca. Given the geography I suppose this district must be more agricultural while the other might have a stronger tourism industry and what not (this one is flatter). However that means nothing for the partisanship here
Safe Right



Álava / Araba (3 seats, 111k people/seat)

Well, this is the first nationalist province, and therefore instead of relying on the usual left vs right maps, I have to look at the maps that separate by party and mentally add up the numbers per precinct and what not. Which is uh, very hard lol. In any case this really just affects the estimated partisanship and not the distribution of districts. But take the partisanship with a bit more caution than usual, except in the super safe areas (rural seats in Catalonia/Basque Country; maybe certain staunchly unionist areas in the Bilbao/Barcelona suburbs)

Oh and the distribution of districts is a bit unorthodox here with 3 sets of donuts but I think Vitoria really lends itself better to such a division rather than north/South or East/west, the old town has no real big avenues.



Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

Vitoria-Afueras / Gasteizko kanpoaldea: This comprises the outer parts of the town of Vitoria. Unlike the inner district, this is a straight 2 way race between the left and the nationalists. I think the left is stronger in its districts than the nationalists are in the ones they win in general, so this one goes for the left but it would be even closer here
Lean Left

Cuadrillas de Álava / Arabako kuadrillak: This takes the rural remainder of Álava province. And really, what pushed me over the edge on how to rate the outer Vitoria district was just how packed the nationalists are in here. They won a very big landslide here, so they certainly got very packed in the rural areas (which pushed me to place the other 2 districts to the left). Anyways this is the rural Basque Country and is therefore very much nationalist.
Safe Nationalist

Totals
6 Safe Left
4 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
25 Safe Right
1 Safe Nationalist
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« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2020, 05:02:19 PM »

Salamanca: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Salamanca. While Salamanca is a university town of sorts, that means nothing in Spain so it just votes like most other rural Castillian towns and went for the right by something like 20 points.
Safe Right

Worth noting that, of the "big" (i.e., over 100k) Castille and León cities, Salamanca seems to be the most right wing one. The left as a whole doesn't even have a clear advantage in poorer neighborhoods, in fact, the right won a few precincts in said places.

Also, Salamanca has a kick-ass cathedral you should absolutely visit if you have the chance.

Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

From what I've seen, Bildu seems to have a pretty big following in the medieval cores of the cities in the Euskal Herria region. Anyone would like to guess why?
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