Spain FPTP simulation
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #25 on: July 06, 2020, 05:05:05 PM »
« edited: July 06, 2020, 05:10:27 PM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

Well, here go 3 more provinces, which means I am finally done with all the 3 seater provinces Tongue

Burgos (3 districts, 119k people/seat)

A fairly boring province to draw, with interesting results if you look a bit deeper.



Burgos: This district takes in roughly 70% of the provincial capital of Burgos, excluding 30% of peripheral neighbourhoods of the city. These neighbourhoods vote roughly like Burgos city at large really, and the city itself voted for the right by 10 points. Anyways while Burgos is not an overwhelmingly conservative city, it is good enough
Safe Right

Ribera del Duero - Alfoz de Burgos: This district takes the southern parts of Burgos province and then develops a tentacle to get the remaining 30% of Burgos that is not in the city district itself. So yeah this is an ugly district. However being rural Castille it is still a right wing district clearly, though the rurals are slightly more left wing than what you might expect for rural Castille, but it does not really matter
Safe Right

Miranda de Ebro - Las Merindades: This is the northern district meanwhile. The biggest population center here is Miranda de Ebro, located at the tripoint border with La Rioja and the Basque Country, and it is extremely left wing for Castille-Leon standards (went 60-40 for the left). However, Miranda de Ebro by my calculations only really accounts for like 35-40% of the district at most, so it probably gets outvoted by the rurals, which are more conservative than those in the northern district. I was tempted to give this a Lean Right rating, but it is too crystal clear to give it anything other than safe
Safe Right



Albacete (3 districts, 129k people/seat)

Another province which was hard to guess exactly how the seats should go (though interestingly I think the districts are pretty good). It seems Castille-La Mancha is hard to draw



Albacete: Much like the Burgos district, this takes in roughly 70% of the provincial capital of Albacete, excluding some peripheral neighbourhoods. However, since we are now in Southern Spain, it is the urban areas which are the more right wing areas, and therefore this must have gone for the right by like 17 points
Safe Right

Corredor de Almansa-La Manchuela: This takes in the Almansa Corridor and the Manchuela comarca, as well as the remainder of Albacete city. Almansa was essencially a tie here, and the rurals seem to also have been quite contested (though I think the right narrowly wins). However, the 30% or so of Albacete city makes all the difference for the right here
Safe Right

Campo de Montiel: This is the most rural of the 3 districts. It is also probably the most left wing, particularly in the southern parts of the district. However the main population centres here, most notably Hellín, La Roda and Villarobledo; are all quite heavily right wing, so they alongside the less populated right wing areas clearly throw this district to the right, though I suppose back in the 2000s it must have been more competitive and/or could flip in a hypothetical wave
Safe Right



Cáceres (3 districts, 131k people/seat)

The final 3 seater province and it was quite a pain. I found no information about the population of the different comarcas and I was completely lost. Thankfully I did find quite a bit of information and even very nice maps about the partidos judiciales of Cáceres, which are a sort of judicial subdivision of Spain.

In any case, the partidos judiciales exist everywhere in the country, so I suppose they can make for a neat backup option, which I have used here.

I will also note here that this project uses 349 districts instead of the 350 the Spanish Congress actually has. If you want to give out the final seat, it goes here in Cáceres province, getting 4 seats instead of 3. In theory this would force you to make a Plasencia centered district, and the Cáceres based district would lose all the rural areas. in terms of partisanship, this makes the western district safe for the left most likely, while the other 3 districts would be safe for the right.

https://i.snipboard.io/exElIJ.jpg (image link cause it otherwise breaks the site)

Cáceres: This takes the provincial capital of Cáceres, as well as some lightly populated rural areas nearby up to the border with Badajoz to complete a bit its population. Again this is Southern Spain so the "normal" rural vs urban patterns are for the most part reversed. Therefore, Cáceres voted easily for the right (43-55)
Safe Right

Trujillo-Navalmoral de la Mata: This is the eastern district, taking in the partidos judiciales in the southeast of the province as well as parts of that of Plasencia (though excluding the town of Plasencia itself). The rural areas here are mixed to say the least, though the bigger towns in the north of the district vote right. I think this district votes for the right by a small but convincing enough margin.
Safe Right

Plasencia - Valencia de Alcántara: Meanwhile this is the western district along the border with Portugal. The big population center here is certainly Plasencia, which voted for the right by a small but convincing 45-53. However, the rural areas here are more left wing than in the eastern district. In this case, I think the rural areas would outvote Plasencia, though it would be extremely close and it would not surprise me at all if it went right. Still I will put it in the left just barely
Lean left

Totals
6 Safe Left
5 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
33 Safe Right
1 Safe Nationalist
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2020, 05:09:09 PM »


Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

From what I've seen, Bildu seems to have a pretty big following in the medieval cores of the cities in the Euskal Herria region. Anyone would like to guess why?


I have absolutely no idea. My guess would be some sort of dynamic like the one that makes the old town of Madrid quite left wing as well (UP is also quite strong in those precincts, getting in 2nd place or at worst a close third). However, the medieval core of a town like Vitoria is a lot smaller than that of Madrid so who knows.
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« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2020, 08:34:45 PM »

This is an interesting project, keep up the good work. I vaguely remember seeing an FPTP Spain somewhere a while ago but can't find it now.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2020, 07:55:25 AM »

Here goes the first 4 seater province, as well as the first of the 4 Catalonia provinces:

Lleida (4 seats, 109k people/seat)

This was a very easy province to draw even if the results are boring



Lleida: This takes almost all of the provincial capital of Lleida. This district roughly voted 45% Nationalist, 30% for the left and 20% for the right or something along those lines. So it is safe nationalist, though this is certainly the most unionist part of Lleida province (in 2017 it was at just barely above 50% secessionist while Lleida province at large is like 64% secessionist). I actually checked 2016 results and it was a tight 3 way race then, though nationalists have gone up by a lot since then in general elections.
Safe Nationalist

El Segrià: This takes the remainder of the Segrià comarca (the one where the provincial capital of Lleida is located). Lleida is a rural province centered mostly on agriculture, and therefore it is no suprise that its rural districts are very nationalist and in support of independence
Safe Nationalist

Pirineu de Lleida: This takes in the mountainous north of the province in the Pyrinees, along the border with France and Andorra as well as the flatter comarca of la Segarra. Again, rural Catalonia means nationalists win easily here with not much to talk about
Safe Nationalist

L'Urgell: This is the southeastern rural district, centered around small towns like Tarrega, Balaguer and Mollerusa. Again, this is a flat, rural and agricultural district which goes for the nationalists quite easily.
Safe Nationalist

Totals
6 Safe Left
4 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
25 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(10-27-5)
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« Reply #29 on: July 07, 2020, 09:08:07 AM »

D*mn, that Burgos district is disgusting lmao. Nothing like a US gerrymander, but it's still downright horrible-looking.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #30 on: July 07, 2020, 10:46:39 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 11:23:37 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

D*mn, that Burgos district is disgusting lmao. Nothing like a US gerrymander, but it's still downright horrible-looking.

In fairness, I did that more out of lazyness more than anything else. Tongue

I suppose I could have split the rural areas and the Burgos surroundings some way, but I did not want to count dozens of small towns with like 100 inhabitants

FTR if I was gerrymandering Burgos I'd probably draw some abomination going from Miranda de Ebro to the left wing areas of Burgos city, then draw 2 right wing sinks.
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« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2020, 07:57:42 AM »

Here go 2 more provinces, one of which is honestly incredibly beautiful as far as districting goes.

León (4 seats, 115k people/seat)



El Bierzo: This takes in the comarca of El Bierzo, which is centered around the town of Ponferrada. This is a part of Leon that is rather culturally different from the rest of Castille-Leon (in fact I believe some rural areas here even speak Galician but don't quote me on that). Therefore while most of Castille-Leon is uniformly right wing. this is extremely left wing. This can almost be seen as a left wing pack of sorts in fact, and is therefore safe left. As a fun fact, if applied retroactively, this would likely be the seat former PM Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero would have represented in Congress (he was born in Valladolid and went to college in Leon city but I think he would have represented El Bierzo since it is a safe seat)
Safe Left

León: This takes in just the provincial capital of Leon. And just like all the other provincial capitals in Castille-Leon except Soria, this is a right wing town and voted for the right by 13 points
Safe Right

Las Montañas-Tierra de León: This is the northern rural district, which takes in most of the surroundings of Leon's ""metropolitan area" as well as the mountainous areas to the north. Most people actually live in the southern parts of the district. The rural areas here are actually rather split politically, possibly a bit of spillover from Asturias' left wing mining areas. However, the areas around Leon are still right wing. This would be a relatively competitive district, but is still safe for my ratings
Safe Right

Astorga, La Bañeza y Sahagún: Finally, this is the southern rural district, probably the most culturally Castillian district and the one that resembles the rest of the region the most (Leon province is somewhat distinct from the rest of Castille-Leon, it even has a small regionalist party). Anyways, this is just rural Castillian countryside and votes for the right overwhelmingly, certainly the most conservative district here
Safe Right



Ciudad Real (4 seats, 124k people/seat)

This is by far the most elegant province I have drawn so far. Everything lined up just perfect. The only "downside" if you can call it that is that I used the Partidos Judiciales instead of the comarcas to draw this but really they are also a decent subdivision



Puertollano: This is the southwestern district, centered around the town of Puertollano. And  again, as is typical as you get closer to Andalucia, this rural district is actually narrowly left wing. The bigger population centers here, most notably Puertollano itself, voted for the left by around 2-3 points. There are also right wing areas but the left wing ones outvote them. This creates a district that I am 95% sure went for the left, but which did so by an extremely narrow margin
Lean left

Ciudad Real: This is the northwestern district, centered around the provincial capital of Ciudad Real as well as several rural areas nearby. And here while the rurals are close, Ciudad Real itself is very right wing, voting for the right by like 20 points. Not much to see here
Safe Right

Tomelloso y Alcázar de San Juan: Surprisingly what I thought would be a rural district ended up being the smallest in land area. This takes just the northeastern corner of the province, centered around the 2 towns of Tomelloso and Alcázar de San Juan, each of which has like 25% of the district's population. Alcázar de San Juan narrowly voted for the left, but every other place here outvotes it and they went for the right fairly convincingly
Safe Right

Daimiel y Despeñaperros: This district finally takes the remainder of the eastern half of the province, going from Daimiel National Park to the Despeñaperros mountain pass (which both name this district). In any case, this rural district I think voted for the right by around 10 points
Safe Right

Totals

7 Safe Left
5 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
31 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(12-33-5)
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« Reply #32 on: July 09, 2020, 11:45:52 AM »

2 more provinces. This also finishes the 4 seater provinces

First of all, I would like to thank Skye for helping quite a bit with Valladolid province by providing me links to several divisions of Valladolid city as designed by their own local town hall. This allowed the partition of Valladolid to be very precise. It will never be perfect but it is a very good partition

Anyways here we go:

Valladolid (4 seats, 130k people/seat)

Skye really helped here with Valladolid city. And really his help mattered quite a bit, as I had almost no information about the rural areas. Thankffully these areas weren't entitled to much but still



Valladolid Sur: This takes in the southern half of Valladolid city, excluding the neighbourhoods to the west of the Pisuerga river. This seems to be the more right wing of the 2 districts and it voted for the right by 40-58. It comprises districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 11 of the city
Safe Right

Valladolid Norte: Meanwhile this is the northern district of Valladolid, taking in the northern half of the city, except for the neighbourhoods of Parquesol and Girón. Of the 2, this seems to be the more left wing of the 2 and it would be a competitive seat. However the margin is not close enough for me to classify it as anything other than safe as it was still 52-47
Safe Right

Valladolid Oeste - Campo de Peñafiel: This takes in the remainder of Valladolid city that is not in one of the 2 urban districts, as well as the rural areas on the east of the province. This leaves a somewhat awkwardly drawn seat but I think it is still fairly ok. As for votes, rural Castille votes right and the neighbourhoods in question of Valladolid voted for the right by 10-11 points so yeah
Safe Right

Las Tierras de Valladolid: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, taking in essencially the western half of Valladolid province. This is super rural flat farmlands for the most part. I spent 2 weeks in this area in 2017 and it was plenty of fun Smiley In any case this is conservative deep Castille regardless
Safe Right



Huelva (4 seats, 130 k people/seat)

Meanwhile Huelva was super easy and super nice to draw, though some of the districts I am unsure of their partisanship.



Huelva: In what seems to be becoming a constant here, this just takes the provincial capital of Huelva. Therefore, this is another district where we can be sure how it voted, and in this case it went right by 3 points (50-47). You could argue this is safe, however, I think 3 points is not enough to call it safe but it is just on the edge. Most certainly a competitive district though
Lean Right

Costa Occidental: This takes the coastal areas on the west of the province, up to the border with Portugal. All places in this district voted right by fairly convincing margins
Safe Right

El Condado de Huelva: This takes in the El Condado comarca as well as a couple municipalities near Huelva. This is an extremely competitive district. All towns here were close and I think they cancel each other. In general the coastal areas near Huelva vote right while the more interior areas vote left. I think the left very, very narrowly won it but it might have been won by the right. It really depends on how packed the left is on the remaining district
Lean Left

El Andévalo - Sierra de Huelva: This takes the rural northern 2/3 of Huelva province. And since this is deep rural western Andalucia, this is an incredibly left wing district and almost feels like a pack. The left probably broke 60% in here or was close to it. In any case, this obiously has gone for the left since time inmemorial and will keep doing so even with the right wing trend of the Spanish South
Safe Left

Totals
8 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
3 Lean Right
36 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(14-39-5)
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #33 on: July 09, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »

How are you defining safe? A 52-47 district seems pretty close to me.
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« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2020, 02:09:02 PM »

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.

Well, I treated them as though they were provinces. In which case, they have a population very similar to Soria, so all 3 end up entitled to 2 districts.

When dividing the 298 seats proportionally, you end up with Ceuta and Melilla both entitled to something like 0.52 seats, which rounded up to 1, plus the extra minimum seat means they get 2.

At least Soria has a sizeable territory, while Ceuta and Melilla are tiny enclaves in the Moroccan coast. Personally I would have not splitted the autonomous cities, nor provinces like Soria. The effects of malapportionment can be as damaging as gerrymandering.

Another question, given that you are making a FPTP simulation, why are you calculating block results? It would make sense in a two-round system (see France), but under FPTP the candidates usually run for parties and coalitions, not for "the left" or "the right". A different question is that certain parties agree to run together. like PP+Cs in the Basque Country elections
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« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2020, 02:11:55 PM »

2 more provinces. This also finishes the 4 seater provinces

First of all, I would like to thank Skye for helping quite a bit with Valladolid province by providing me links to several divisions of Valladolid city as designed by their own local town hall. This allowed the partition of Valladolid to be very precise. It will never be perfect but it is a very good partition

Anyways here we go:

Valladolid (4 seats, 130k people/seat)

Skye really helped here with Valladolid city. And really his help mattered quite a bit, as I had almost no information about the rural areas. Thankffully these areas weren't entitled to much but still



Valladolid Sur: This takes in the southern half of Valladolid city, excluding the neighbourhoods to the west of the Pisuerga river. This seems to be the more right wing of the 2 districts and it voted for the right by 40-58. It comprises districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 11 of the city
Safe Right

Valladolid Norte: Meanwhile this is the northern district of Valladolid, taking in the northern half of the city, except for the neighbourhoods of Parquesol and Girón. Of the 2, this seems to be the more left wing of the 2 and it would be a competitive seat. However the margin is not close enough for me to classify it as anything other than safe as it was still 52-47
Safe Right

Valladolid Oeste - Campo de Peñafiel: This takes in the remainder of Valladolid city that is not in one of the 2 urban districts, as well as the rural areas on the east of the province. This leaves a somewhat awkwardly drawn seat but I think it is still fairly ok. As for votes, rural Castille votes right and the neighbourhoods in question of Valladolid voted for the right by 10-11 points so yeah
Safe Right

Las Tierras de Valladolid: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, taking in essencially the western half of Valladolid province. This is super rural flat farmlands for the most part. I spent 2 weeks in this area in 2017 and it was plenty of fun Smiley In any case this is conservative deep Castille regardless
Safe Right



Huelva (4 seats, 130 k people/seat)

Meanwhile Huelva was super easy and super nice to draw, though some of the districts I am unsure of their partisanship.



Huelva: In what seems to be becoming a constant here, this just takes the provincial capital of Huelva. Therefore, this is another district where we can be sure how it voted, and in this case it went right by 3 points (50-47). You could argue this is safe, however, I think 3 points is not enough to call it safe but it is just on the edge. Most certainly a competitive district though
Lean Right

Costa Occidental: This takes the coastal areas on the west of the province, up to the border with Portugal. All places in this district voted right by fairly convincing margins
Safe Right

El Condado de Huelva: This takes in the El Condado comarca as well as a couple municipalities near Huelva. This is an extremely competitive district. All towns here were close and I think they cancel each other. In general the coastal areas near Huelva vote right while the more interior areas vote left. I think the left very, very narrowly won it but it might have been won by the right. It really depends on how packed the left is on the remaining district
Lean Left

El Andévalo - Sierra de Huelva: This takes the rural northern 2/3 of Huelva province. And since this is deep rural western Andalucia, this is an incredibly left wing district and almost feels like a pack. The left probably broke 60% in here or was close to it. In any case, this obiously has gone for the left since time inmemorial and will keep doing so even with the right wing trend of the Spanish South
Safe Left

Totals
8 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
3 Lean Right
36 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(14-39-5)

Glad I could be of help. But is 52-47 margin safe for a party? lol

You split the city centre (A pretty right wing area) into two districts, and you left the PSOE-friendly Delicias neighborhood in the district with the more right-friendly areas of the city, so you essentially gerrymandered another seat for the right lol. I think that's understandable if you used what the Ayuntamiento calls "districts", which are big, and to be honest, kind of rubbish.

I guess what I would have done differently is that I would have drawn the surrounding "suburban" counties of "metro" Valladolid into one district, and the rest of the rural areas into another. But nice job anyway.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2020, 02:23:22 PM »

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.

Well, I treated them as though they were provinces. In which case, they have a population very similar to Soria, so all 3 end up entitled to 2 districts.

When dividing the 298 seats proportionally, you end up with Ceuta and Melilla both entitled to something like 0.52 seats, which rounded up to 1, plus the extra minimum seat means they get 2.

At least Soria has a sizeable territory, while Ceuta and Melilla are tiny enclaves in the Moroccan coast. Personally I would have not splitted the autonomous cities, nor provinces like Soria. The effects of malapportionment can be as damaging as gerrymandering.

Another question, given that you are making a FPTP simulation, why are you calculating block results? It would make sense in a two-round system (see France), but under FPTP the candidates usually run for parties and coalitions, not for "the left" or "the right". Another question is that certain parties agree to run together. like PP+Cs in the Basque Country elections

Well yeah my proposal is most definitely very malapportioned though ironically it is less malapportioned than the current Spanish Congress Tongue (tbh I thought about doing no reapportionment and just using the current Congress numbers)

As for block results, in FPTP there will almost always be a 2 party system. If Spain historically used FPTP, UP, Cs and Vox would likely not exist and PSOE+PP would be getting 80% or more of the vote like back in the "good old days".

Calculating party winners is trivial though, and can easily be done if need be tbh. The hard part is drawing the districts. My guesses as of now for the 2 seater provinces for instance would be:

Melilla Norte: CpM
Melilla Sur: PP
Península de Ceuta: Vox
Ceuta Interior: PSOE
Villa de Soria: PSOE
Campo de Soria: PP
Provincia de Teruel-Sur: TEx (2nd place, PSOE)
Provincia de Teruel-Norte: PSOE (2nd place, PP). But really more like a 3 way tossup
Villa y Tierra de Segovia: PSOE (but very close)
Campo de Segovia: PP
Ávila-Villa: PP
Ávila-Sierra de Gredos: PP
Ciudad de Palencia: PSOE
Campo de Palencia: PP
Tierra del Pan y el Vino: PSOE
Campo Zamorano: PP
La Alcarria-Mancha Conquense: PSOE
La Manchuela-Serranía de Cuenca: PSOE
Hoya de Huesca: PSOE
Barbastro, Fraga, Monte Perdido y Monzón: PSOE
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« Reply #37 on: July 09, 2020, 02:30:52 PM »


Glad I could be of help. But is 52-47 margin safe for a party? lol

You split the city centre (A pretty right wing area) into two districts, and you left the PSOE-friendly Delicias neighborhood in the district with the more right-friendly areas of the city, so you essentially gerrymandered another seat for the right lol. I think that's understandable if you used what the Ayuntamiento calls "districts", which are big, and to be honest, kind of rubbish.

I guess what I would have done differently is that I would have drawn the surrounding "suburban" counties of "metro" Valladolid into one district, and the rest of the rural areas into another. But nice job anyway.

Tbh I am using Lean really more as though it was a tossup category or for things where I just have no idea what to say. It would 100% be competitive and contested of course. Really I expect parties to pay attention to any seats below a 10 point margin.

I could move it to lean as well of course and use 5 points as the frontier from now on.

I decided to go with a north-south division because I was kinda tired of doing inner/outer districts and Valladolid had decent enough north-South divisions; plus of course the districts from the ayuntamiento made it easy Tongue

An inner vs outer split instead would as you say create an even safer seat for the right and a lean left outer seat. So I guess I did indeed make a right wing gerrymander there Tongue
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« Reply #38 on: July 10, 2020, 08:06:21 AM »

How are you defining safe? A 52-47 district seems pretty close to me.

Well, I think from now on I will try to be more consistent and use 5 points as the barrier. So 0-5 points=lean and more than 5=safe. I am avoiding tossups tbh- I will say that for most districts, especially those in rural areas or that split cities and doubly so for those in Catalonia/Basque Country, it is very hard to get an accurate partisan estimation. In those cases I just tend to go with a gut feeling if it is close.
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« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2020, 08:51:26 AM »

Speaking of which, here is our next province, the first 5 seater

Castellón (5 seats, 115k people/seat)

I will preface this by saying that both sides seem fairly evenly distributed in Castellón. This means that even the 2 districts I caracterized as safe, are probably better seen as more like "likely" seats since their margins are still rather close (but outside 5 points, more like 6-10 I'd say).



El Maestrat: This takes in the rural north of the province, going around the interior as well. The partisan divide here seems to be that the further away you go from the border with Catalonia, the more right wing the district becomes. Since most people here live in the left wing coast, I think this votes for the left by like 6-10 points which I've been characterizing as safe
Safe left

Plana Alta: This takes in the comarca of Plana Alta minus the municipality of Almazora and like the core 3/4 of Castellón de la Plana, the provincial capital. And really this is the mirror image of the El Maestrat district. Here in general the coastal areas are more right wing than the interior areas. The interior seems to have narrowly voted left, but here the coastal areas, which seem to be quite touristy, voted heavily right wing, which means this district voted for the right probably by high single digits. (7-8 points or so)
Safe Right

Castellón de la Plana: This takes the core of Castellón de la Plana, except for some very peripheral areas and the port of the city. The entire municipality ended up as a draw in Nov 19, with the right eking out a victory by 0.2%. Since the areas I removed seem to lean left (particularly the port area) this is probably a bit to the right of the city but this is a right wing victory of 1 point at most. Expect very contested elections here but since I am avoiding tossups
Lean Right

Almazora, Villareal y Burriana: This district takes essencially 3 "suburban?" towns south of Castellón all of which combined add up to a full district. Villareal is the most populated and voted for the left by 2 points, but the other 2 voted for the right by 6 and 10 points. Since there are only 4 municipalities here, I can actually easily calculate the proper result. And this voted for the right by 4 points (52-48).
Lean Right

Plana Baixa: This takes in the southern rural areas of Castellón province, up to the border with Valencia. And much like Castellon city's district, this is an incredibly tight district. Here basically all the regions of the district cancel each other. Much like in the other coastal district, the closer you get to Valencia, the more left wing it is. However, the coastal towns cancel each other out and so do the rural areas. I believe this must have gone for the right by an incredibly narrow margin of like 1-2 points, but it could have also very easily gone to the left. In any case, yet another ultra competitive district
Lean Right

Totals
9 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
37 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(15-43-5)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2020, 09:09:17 AM »

You need some more visible borders for the competitive-right category. I think I know the borders between the three seats, but I am not sure. In the past I could tell where one seat ended and another began since it bordered safer seats. However, when the leans border each other, they all meld together because of the light border color.
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« Reply #41 on: July 10, 2020, 09:49:15 AM »

You need some more visible borders for the competitive-right category. I think I know the borders between the three seats, but I am not sure. In the past I could tell where one seat ended and another began since it bordered safer seats. However, when the leans border each other, they all meld together because of the light border color.

I suppose I should use a darker shade of blue (or pink) here then?

Here is a quick redo with an slighly darker shade of blue and thicker borders (almost too thick in fact)



For the record, the link in the first page should update automatically, so if anyone is in doubt about any seat borders, that also works as a backup.
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« Reply #42 on: July 10, 2020, 10:01:01 AM »

You need some more visible borders for the competitive-right category. I think I know the borders between the three seats, but I am not sure. In the past I could tell where one seat ended and another began since it bordered safer seats. However, when the leans border each other, they all meld together because of the light border color.

I suppose I should use a darker shade of blue (or pink) here then?

Here is a quick redo with an slighly darker shade of blue and thicker borders (almost too thick in fact)



For the record, the link in the first page should update automatically, so if anyone is in doubt about any seat borders, that also works as a backup.

Looks better, though yeah, maybe too thick.
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« Reply #43 on: July 11, 2020, 06:21:10 AM »

Cantabria (5 seats, 116k people/seat)

This was a province that was easy to draw, but very hard to guess the results. Depending on whether you treat PRC as their own thing or as part of the left, the results will change drastically. For now I decided to treat them as their own thing since, after all, they did not support Sánchez in his confidence vote.

If you do think PRC is better treated as just part of the left please let me now and I'll change the results retroactively I guess Tongue



Santander: This takes the core of the city of Santander. Santander is quite a right wing city and in fact, even if you included PRC as part of the left this would be incredibly tight (as in, within 1 point or 2). With PRC separate though, this is safe for the right
Safe Right.

Afueras de Santander: This is the outer Santander district, taking some further out areas from the municipality of Santander and some suburban municipalities nearby. If including PRC among the left, this would be at convincing left wing victory by high single digits. However because of the "PRC penalty" this zooms right and becomes safe for the right. To get an idea of why, we can look at El Astillero municipality, which is the most left wing area of the district. This voted 42-36-20 for the right. So it is easy to see how counting PRC or not as part of the left causes some huge swings
Safe Right

Torrelavega: This takes the remainder of the further away areas from the Santander metropolitan area, and then takes in Torrelavega, the 2nd largest town in Cantabria as well as some coastal areas. This district is the only one where I was able to calculate an actual result: 42-35-23 for the right. So while competitive, this still falls under the broad umbrella of safe, though again merging PRC and the left causes huge swings
Safe Right

Costa Oriental - Trasmiera: This was a hard district to rate. It is extremely divided with the western parts being conservative and the eastern parts being left wing. The municipality of Castro Urdiales in fact, accounting for roughly 25% of the population, is incredibly left wing and the left proper got over 50% there (not including PRC). This is because, in a way, it functions as a suburb of nearby Bilbao. However, I think the left just gets outvoted in the remainder of the district, with the right winning handily in the western parts and winning very weak pluralities on the east outside Castro Urdiales
Safe Right

Costa Occidental, Liébana y Campóo: This is the rural remainder of the province in the west. The right definitely did not get a majority here, but it almost certainly won with a plurality of more than 5 points.
Safe Right

Totals
9 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
42 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(15-49-5)
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« Reply #44 on: July 14, 2020, 05:00:46 PM »

Next province comes today and it is finally a left dominated province for once, even if narrowly.

Jaén (5 seats, 127k people/seat)

A fairly standard and self explaining province to draw. Nothing out of the extraordinary here I think other than maybe that the right seems a bit packed to me.

I will say that something feels off in terms of partisanship here as Jaén was essencially a tie yet I got a map with a whopping 4 left wing districts. And I certainly don't think this is a gerrymander, nor are conservatives packed to that extent.



Jaén: This takes in the provincial capital of Jaén and 2 nearby small towns. This is Andalucia, so now we have a pattern of rural leftists vs urban conservatives. This voted for the right by about 56-42
Safe Right

Sierra Sur de Jaén: This district takes in some areas in the "Jaén Metropolitan Area" to the west of Jaén itself, as well as the mountains on the Southwest of the province (Jaén province is essencially surrounded by mountains, given it is in the upper part of the Guadalquivir valley). Politically, the areas near Jaen seem to vote left while the ones in the south seem to go for the right and they counteract each other near perfectly, though the left narrowly wins here
Lean left

Sierras de Cazorla, Segura, las Villas y Sierra Mágina: This district takes essencially all the southeastern part of the province, and is comprised for the most part of 2 natural parks. However, this seems to be the most left wing district in the province. While the northern areas are a bit more divided, the southern towns are heavily left wing. This most definitely goes for the left
Safe Left

La Loma-El Condado: This takes the counties of La Loma and El Condado as well as 2 towns near Jaén. The western edge of this district is heavily left wing, although the towns of Úbeda and Baeza are right wing, as well as some of the other rurals narrowly going for the right. However, they are not enough to outvote that edge of the district and I think this goes left by about 6 points narrowly being safe
Safe Left

La Campiña-Sierra Morena: This is the northeastern district, centered around the town of Linares which takes like 40% of the district and is essencially evenly divided. Then you have the towns of Bailén and Andújar, which vote for the right by about 3000 votes. However, the rurals here narrowly outvote that and this ends up being a district won by the left by around 3 points.
Lean Left

Totals
11 Safe Left
8 Lean Left
6 Lean Right
43 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(19-49-5)
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« Reply #45 on: July 17, 2020, 11:06:02 AM »

Navarra (5 seats, 131k people/seat)

This was a bit harder to draw than usual despite having good information. I really hate all those tiny municipalities near Pamplona. Oh and since this is a nationalist province, the partisan labels should be taken with a bit more caution than usual. There is a reason why I put all 3 rural districts as lean



Tudela-Rivera Alta: This is the southern district, taking in the small "panhandle" around Tudela and then following along the valley of the Ebro River. In terms of partisanship, the town of Tudela is rather right wing, though it only accounts for 20% of the district. The remainder seems to lean left, and I think even if the margins are not huge, it is enough to beat out the right in here. The nationalists are barely relevant in this area, as this is the most culturally Castillian part of Navarra
Lean Left

Pamplona Sur / Hego Iruña: This takes in the southern 2/3 of the town of Pamplona, home of the bull running festival and the regional capital. And in a way, this is quite a heavy right wing gerrymander, taking in basically all the right leaning areas of the town, most notably the 19th century expansions. Anyways, this is definitely the most right wing district
Safe Right

Pamplona Norte / Ipar Iruña: Conversely, this takes in the northern third of the town of Pamplona, including the old town as well as several small towns to the north that in many cases function as a extension of the city. Anyways, this is the polar opposite of the previous district. The nationalists have a strong presence in the old city as is expected in the Basque Country but really this district should be safe for the left
Safe Left

Tierra de Estella - Cuenca de Pamplona / Iruñerria - Lizarrerria: This is the long, southwestern district, taking in the areas around the town of Estella/Lizarra and doing a line until it takes the remainder of the exurbs of the Pamplona area. The rurals seem roughly evenly split, with maybe a small lean to the left. Meanwhile the Pamplona suburbs and exurbs, which have more population than you might expect, lean to the right. I think unlike the Tudela district though, here the right wing areas narrowly win but I am not confident on that
Lean Right

Tafalla y Noroeste /Tafallaldea eta Ipar-Mendebaldea: This is the northern district that goes from the Pyrinees to the middle east. In the north, and especially in the northwest, the nationalists win handily, though these areas seem less populated to me. Still I think they would be decisive. The nationalists are probably packed enough here and the unionists divided enough that I think this would be a very narrow nationalist win, albeit one in a close 3 way race with just the right amount of vote splitting
Lean Nationalist

Totals
12 Safe Left
9 Lean Left
7 Lean Right
44 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(21-51-6)
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« Reply #46 on: July 22, 2020, 06:07:42 AM »

Well, here comes the 2nd to last 5 seater province:

Badajoz (5 seats, 135k people/seat)

Again I am not fully convinced of these partisan ratings since they seem to me a bit beneficial to the right but whatever.



Badajoz: This takes in simply the provincial capital of Badajoz. Badajoz is a surprisingly right wing city, even when adjusting for the fact that cities are more right wing in this part of the country. This voted for the right by nearly 18 points
Safe Right

Almendralejo, Olivenza y Campo de Badajoz: This is the western district, that takes in a tentacle into the town fo Almendralejo. The town of Almendralejo itself is very much right wing, but the rural remainder of the district is very left wing and manages to (narrowly) outvote it
Lean left

Mérida y Montijo: This district is the north central district which pretty much just takes the towns of Mérida and Montijo. The town of Mérida comprises most of the population here and voted for the right by about 1 point. The remainder of the district narrowly voted for the left. After basically looking at the municipalities here, it seems to me that the rurals do not manage to outvote Mérida despite the small margin they need to outvote it; so this went to the right. However the margin must have been ridiculously close, I think it is on the scale of 100 votes or so. This is where I really need a tossup category Tongue
Lean Right

Don Benito: This is the eastern rural district, centered around the town of Don Benito. And this is a textbook example of rural Extremadura. The decently large towns of Don Benito and Villanueva de la Serena vote for the right and the rest of the district for the left, which outvotes it but I do not think outvotes it by enough to be larger than 5 points
Lean Left

Zafra: This is the southern rural district. And in a very similar situation to Don Benito, the larger towns here vote right narrowly, while the truly rural areas vote left. And much like Don Benito, this goes for the left by a not so overwhelming margin, though I think this one is the most left wing district in Extremadura. In fact I think this would narrowly fall into the Safe category but it could also be just lean
Safe left

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
8 Lean Right
45 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-53-6)
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« Reply #47 on: July 25, 2020, 07:38:08 AM »

The final 5 seater province:

Toledo (5 seats, 139k people/seat)

Not really a fan of how the map turned out and also quite a hard province to draw but still



Talavera de la Reina: This is the rural western district, taking in the partido judicial of Talavera de la Reina, and centered around this town. The rural areas are only somewhat right wing but not overwhelmingly so. However the main population center of Talavera de la Reina is to the right of these rural areas, which makes the district safe
Safe Right

Montes de Toledo-Torrijos: Starting in the west, this is the 2nd vertical strip, and really this was a rural leftovers district that turned out to be alright (even if I am not a fan of the 5 vertical strips here). Anyways this is rural Castille-La Mancha and votes for the right by a good margin
Safe Right

La Sagra: This is the northern district, centered around the comarca of La Sagra. In a way, this district functions as a distant exurb of Madrid much like the 2 urban Guadalajara ones. Madrid exurbs were a big area of strength for Vox, and this again voted comfortably for the right.
Safe Right

Toledo: Just south of La Sagra, this surprisingly long and thin district takes in the provincial capital of Toledo (where 2/3 of the population lives) and then basically takes a couple towns to its north and then goes along road N-401 taking nearby towns. Toledo city voted for the right by 15 points and the other towns are not exactly super left wing either so the result here is clear
Safe Right

Mesa de Ocaña-La Mancha alta: This is essencially peak Don Quixote land. Windmills, open fields, etc. In fact, the village of El Toboso (where Don Quixote's romantic interest lived) is in this district. Anyways, while this makes for an interesting district to describe, its politics are more boring. The rurals seem to be relatively close, but the bigger the population here, the more right wing the towns become so I think this goes for the right by a safe margin, but maybe in the past this was competitive
Safe Right

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
8 Lean Right
50 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-58-6)
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« Reply #48 on: July 28, 2020, 08:02:23 AM »

We get the first 6 seater province today

Almería (6 seats, 120k people/seat)

Note I think I messed up populations here and the inner rural district is probably underpopulated. If populating it properly it probably becomes more right wing but not sure if actually safe.



Almería: This takes the innermost 2/3 or so of the provincial capital of Almería. Almería as a whole is a right wing city that voted like 41-57 for the right, but this takes in the more left wing areas of the city. I suppose this would be just barely outside the margins of competitiveness or just barely in them; but definitely still safe under most circumstances
Safe Right

Cabo de Gata: This is the southwestern district, taking in the remaining third of Almería as well as the rest of its "metropolitan area", up to the cape of Gata. Since this takes the more right wing parts of the city and the rurals aren't exactly super left wing here, this is also safe
Safe Right

Levante Almeriense - Los Vélez: This is the northeastern district, that takes in the entire border with the neighbouring region of Murcia. There is not much to see here really, this area of the country is very right wing for a variety of reasons; from access to water to muslim immigration being quite high.
Safe Right

Roquetas de Mar: This district is just west of Almería and is one of the 2 districts located in Spain's famous "Sea of Plastics" basically an area with a ton of greenhouses and greenhouse farming, to the point where it is visible in space. Anyways because of the very high muslim immigration and greenhouse farming being very different from regular farming in Andalucia, this is a Vox stronghold and a right wing stronghold in general, with the right getting like 2/3 of the vote
Safe Right

El Ejido: This district is again just west of the Roquetas de Mar district and is centered around the town of El Ejido, being also the other "Sea of Plastics" district. El Ejido is famous for 2 things: Being a massive Vox stronghold (Vox won a plurality here in their very first election, being the only town where they did that) and having the worst race riots in Spanish history back in 2000. Obviously what I said about Roquetas de Mar also applies here but even more strongly and the right broke 70% here. In fact this district may be one of the candidates for most right wing district in this project
Safe Right

Alpujarra Almeriense-Valle del Almanzora: This is the big rural interior district, and this is also probably the most "culturally Andalusian" district (Almería often feels detached from the rest of Andalucia and is probably the most culturally distinct province). The rurals here are basically evenly split in general and resemble more those from the rest of Andalucia than those from the coast. Anyways here I think the right narrowly manages a win but it'd be very close, within 5 points.
Lean Right

Totals
13 Safe Left
11 Lean Left
9 Lean Right
55 Safe Right
1 Lean Nationalist
5 Safe Nationalist
(24-64-6)
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« Reply #49 on: July 28, 2020, 01:10:41 PM »

To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.
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