NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kobach is not doing the KS GOP any favors.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VERY early, but better than I expected in KS 3rd for us so far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bacon will be ahead by 2-3 is my guess.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

Nah, most Democrats here want Eastman to win even if some of us think she can't win.  Atlas will lose it's mind if Eastman ends up losing by like 7%, we'll be inundated with #HotTakes from maroon avatars about how Eastman is really winning when you unskew the poll.

Why would she do worse than Ashford? We're no talking about an extremely conservative district here, and Ashford pretty much just matched Clinton's performance, and was the only Democratic incumbent in the House or Senate to lose. I don't see what makes him so much more electable than Eastman. Either way, the rush to move this race from Toss-Up to Lean R as soon as she won was quite silly, that's my point.

Yeah, I'm glad Eastman won the primary too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

Schrier is not a bad candidate at all, and if Dino is pulling off moderates, how come he only barely broke 43% in the jungle primary?

He was saving his money and energy for where it really matters, this fall. He was already guaranteed a spot in the runoff, so he hardly did anything for it nor did he need to. Now he's gonna throw it all into the game.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean if there poll is anywhere near accurate in WV 3rd, Manchin and Ojeda look to be in a really bad place.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am pleasantly surprised by CA 45th results thus far. Still gonna keep it at tilt R, especially because of primary results, but it is looking a little better now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rossi is going to get Gillespie'd, calling it right now.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see that as a particularly controversial statement

To some extent, I feel kinda bad for the guy...

He's been chasing elected office for most of his adult life, and usually loses narrowly. The poor guy needs a break.

I think he will probably get one this fall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

If Bacon is as popular as the poll says, we were never going to win this seat no matter who we put up.

Gotta agree with this. The man has Curbelo/Hurd levels of popularity in this poll.

Those districts are hispanic low turnout things though and with Hurd's is ancestrally R. That being said, I think that Bacon only wins by slightly more than he did in 2016, and would have beaten Ashford just as badly too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like MacArthur will be joining the Blum/Comstock/Rothfus/Paulsen/Coffman club.

Something about VA 10th feels quite off, why haven't the national republicans triaged her out as DOA yet? Does she have some explosive dirt or something on our dem? Because that's the only way she will hold on.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been saying the whole time that Rossi has the edge, granted the current numbers are too friendly to him, but I still expect him to eek it out in both the poll and the election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Those districts are hispanic low turnout things though and with Hurd's is ancestrally R.

LMAO. no.

Well, although I don't want to wade too deep into these waters without a good pair of boots to protect me against snakebites....

https://tpwd.texas.gov/kids/wild_things/wildlife/snakes.phtml

Hurd's political biography is a bit interesting....

Although I can't speak for Hurd's "Ancestral Republican / Democratic roots", Bagel might well be correct if we were to look at the Historical Experience of African-Americans and Partisan ("Ancestral" Political Identity at the time where the Republican Party was first founded, and even perhaps well into the 1930s....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Hurd

It's a bit of a stretch when it comes to Modern American political voting patterns of African-Americans, but really it isn't a new thing at all....

So yeah, Bagel made a comment that on surface might have sounded a bit silly, especially considering I have no idea of Mr. Hurd's prior political family voting history....   

It is not unreasonable at all that there are "Ancestrally Republican" African-American voters in the United States, considering it is only relatively recently within an Historical Context that Black Voters started to vote overwhelmingly Democratic...

I meant that his district is, not him lmao.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rossi is going to narrowly win this fall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When will they poll OH-12 ?

I think O'Connor will win the re-match in November ...

Lol no.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

All of the options suck, but I chose VA 10th since I wanna see how much Wexton wins by.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bishop should be ahead by 5-6.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bagel23 this is not an image board. Please stop posting random images with no other content.

Ok, but I think I'd beat Roy Moore in Stafford County Virginia.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Budd isn't doing so hot either. Neither is Zeldin, though it's still earlyish there.

Yeah never got the Gershon hate, always thought he was a decent candidate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hultgren is screwed.

Yeah, up by 2 with plurality-Republican undecided voters. Start writing his obituary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that Pritzker edges out Dupage county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like they're moving to Senate races, and they'll be starting with NV, TN, and TX. *Sigh* wish they'd actually do some competitive Senate races.

All of those are competitive.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wish NYT would poll HI 1st CD next.