NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[BudgieForce]

I continue to take these polls with a grain of salt.

[IceSpear]

Budd isn't doing so hot either. Neither is Zeldin, though it's still earlyish there.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I wish NYT would finish up polling the tossup districts before moving onto these Lean R districts.

I wonder when they will start repolling districts. Probably better to wait until after October 15 or so when more people have been exposed to the congressional candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wish NYT would finish up polling the tossup districts before moving onto these Lean R districts.

I wonder when they will start repolling districts. Probably better to wait until after October 15 or so when more people have been exposed to the congressional candidates.

With the number of political sex scandals recently, "exposed" is perhaps not the best choice of words.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Budd isn't doing so hot either. Neither is Zeldin, though it's still earlyish there.

Yeah never got the Gershon hate, always thought he was a decent candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In MI-11, they've got 465 responses from 66,770 calls.  I'm beginning to understand why the last pollster to call seemed so surprised that I was willing to talk to her.

[wesmoorenerd]

Budd isn't doing so hot either. Neither is Zeldin, though it's still earlyish there.

Yeah never got the Gershon hate, always thought he was a decent candidate.

It's mostly because he's:

A. a poor fundraiser
B. a boring rich white dude along the lines of Scott Wallace
C. not as good as Kate Browning

However, that doesn't make him awful or anything. He's far from a Cockburn/Cox tier candidate, but he's no Brindisi either.

[Jeppe]

If IL-14 is looking this dicey for Republicans, I have to wonder what they'd find if they repolled IL-06. IL-14 and MI-11 are the only great-looking results for Democrats right now, though. NC-13 and NY-01 look very meh, and the TX-31 poll is unsurprising (I get that Cockburn isn't a great candidate, but do people really think that VA-05 is less likely to flip than TX-31?)

Lauren Underwood has been running the strongest campaign in Illinois, but it’s mostly gone under the radar. If she were running in IL-06, we would’ve locked down the seat months ago. But at least this gives us the opportunity to win more seats in Illinois overall.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If IL-14 is looking this dicey for Republicans, I have to wonder what they'd find if they repolled IL-06. IL-14 and MI-11 are the only great-looking results for Democrats right now, though. NC-13 and NY-01 look very meh, and the TX-31 poll is unsurprising (I get that Cockburn isn't a great candidate, but do people really think that VA-05 is less likely to flip than TX-31?)

Lauren Underwood has been running the strongest campaign in Illinois, but it’s mostly gone under the radar. If she were running in IL-06, we would’ve locked down the seat months ago. But at least this gives us the opportunity to win more seats in Illinois overall.

She’s definitely running an impressive campaign (and I have this seat at Tilt-D), but I’d argue our candidates in IL-12 and (arguably) IL-13 are running better campaigns.  I don’t think we have any candidates in competitive IL House races who aren’t running solid campaigns though.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hultgren is screwed.

[mencken]

Hultgren is screwed.

Yeah, up by 2 with plurality-Republican undecided voters. Start writing his obituary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hultgren is screwed.

Yeah, up by 2 with plurality-Republican undecided voters. Start writing his obituary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Then why is Pritzker burbstomping in the collar counties? You can't tell me that wont drag Hultgren down?

[Xing]

Hultgren isn't done for, but the fact that Inside Elections has this race at "Safe R" is pretty funny.

[Virginiá]

Then why is Pritzker burbstomping in the collar counties? You can't tell me that wont drag Hultgren down?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Pritzker under-performed in DuPage if he only wins statewide by Clinton/Obama-like numbers, but so far some polls have shown pretty substantial leads for him in these areas, and in other states that voted more Republican downballot during the Obama era have shown a major reversal, with state elections aligning with presidential results (or more). New Jersey is an excellent example. Republicans had over-performed big time in legislative elections throughout the Obama years, only to see the bottom fall out popular-vote wise in 2017, under an unpopular President Trump.

The smart bet would be that Republicans experience heavy losses up and downballot in most of the collar counties.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that Pritzker edges out Dupage county.

[CityofSinners]

 New Jersey is an excellent example. Republicans had over-performed big time in legislative elections throughout the Obama years, only to see the bottom fall out popular-vote wise in 2017, under an unpopular President Trump.

VA is the much better example then NJ. In NJ dems only gained 1 state senate and 2 state house seats. Though to be fair they had already quite large majorities in both chambers.

[Virginiá]

 New Jersey is an excellent example. Republicans had over-performed big time in legislative elections throughout the Obama years, only to see the bottom fall out popular-vote wise in 2017, under an unpopular President Trump.

VA is the much better example then NJ. In NJ dems only gained 1 state senate and 2 state house seats. Though to be fair they had already quite large majorities in both chambers.

Seat-wise, it is. But New Jersey's actual legislative popular vote mirrors Illinois', in the sense that both of them were much more Republican downballot under Obama despite voting heavily Democratic at the presidential level. They are reflections of each other in this regard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_elections,_2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Illinois,_2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Illinois,_2016

New Jersey 2015 (Assembly): 53.3% - 45.9% (D)
Illinois 2014 (HoR): 50.49%  - 49.33% (D)
Illinois 2016 (HoR): 53.87% - 45.97% (D)


....


Then Trump becomes president, and:

New Jersey 2017 (Assembly): 58.1% - 41.4% (D)
New Jersey 2017 (Senate): 59.1% - 40.7% (D)
Illinois 2018 (HoR): TBD


Democrats came close to flipping a number of seats, but the map is gerrymandered enough that it limited that. Republicans actually won the popular vote in the state Senate by about 5 points in 2013 yet didn't actually gain any seats, so that should tell you all you need to know.


So I would say Democrats in Illinois are poised to rack up a huge margin in the popular vote in legislative elections, and that will probably sweep away a bunch of Obama-Clinton and Obama-Trump seats held by Republicans, probably a fair amount in the collar counties too.

[IceSpear]

Hultgren isn't done for, but the fact that Inside Elections has this race at "Safe R" is pretty funny.

"Inside Elections" ratings are a running joke.

[Xing]

Looks like they're moving to Senate races, and they'll be starting with NV, TN, and TX. *Sigh* wish they'd actually do some competitive Senate races.

[CherokeeDem]

Looks like they're moving to Senate races, and they'll be starting with NV, TN, and TX. *Sigh* wish they'd actually do some competitive Senate races.
[/quote

God they just need to do North Dakota. Once they do that they can poll Wyoming for all I care.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Perfect. A Tennessee poll right in the wake of the Taylor Swift bump. Bredesen will be up 10 as all her fans flock to him. \s

And just what we need - another Texas poll re-confirming that Cruz will win.

[Skye]

Looks like they're moving to Senate races, and they'll be starting with NV, TN, and TX. *Sigh* wish they'd actually do some competitive Senate races.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1049358228193202177

I disagree about the importance of TX, yet I want to see them polling it just because. And TN and NV seem alright to me.

[Pollster]

Should note that they are asking the Gov race in each state as well.

[MAINEiac4434]

YOO SENATE RACES