Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://theyappie.com/exclusive-how-georgia-democrats-are-countering-misinformation-on-aapi-messaging-apps/

In recent weeks, experts and community activists have hailed AAPIs as a possible deciding electorate in the high-stakes runoffs, where Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will face off against Republican incumbent Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively. Tuesday’s runoffs are especially consequential because results will determine control of the Senate.

The goal of the new campaign, said AAPI Coalition Director Linh Nguyen, is to hypertarget outreach and ensure voters have a plan for participating in the election. It also empowers voters to ask questions so inaccurate information is debunked as quickly as possible.

Though AAPIs make up almost 5% of the state population, their numbers have grown by almost 140% since 2000, according to the AAPI Victory Fund. AAPI political engagement is also higher than ever, with voter participation in Georgia nearly doubling from 2016 to 2020 in the general election.

In November, at least 30,000 Asian Americans in Georgia voted for the first time, nearly three times President-elect Joe Biden’s 11,000-vote margin of victory, according to The Guardian. AAPI voters made up 2.5% of the total vote, said AAPI Media Director Jen D. Rafanan, and Georgia Democrats anticipate an even higher percentage in the runoffs.

But misinformation and disinformation are notably rampant among the AAPI community, often exacerbated by the insular nature of ethnic media. Because a majority of AAPIs are immigrants, they often feel more comfortable using a messaging app in their native language and are less likely to verify information with English-language sources, but that can make them more susceptible to circulating unfounded statements. In one case, an image on WeChat drew attention for its attempt to frighten Chinese Americans into staying home on Election Day, falsely warning that the National Guard would mobilize to quell riots.

To address these types of misinformation, messaging in language has been key for Georgia Democrats. 80% of Asian Americans in Georgia speak a language other than English at home, and of the 80%, more than 43% speak English less than “very well.”

Volunteers use a guide when connecting with voters and are encouraged to continue messaging voters through Jan. 5. The “unspoken sense of trust between members of the same community” strengthens the campaign, Nguyen said.

Most questions have involved the voting process—because people understand how critical this election is, Nguyen added. But the direct messaging campaign could serve as a playbook further down the line.

“The stuff we’re laying down now is designed to continue beyond [the runoffs],” Nguyen said. “Congressional campaigns have tested WhatsApp, but we haven’t seen it scaled statewide or nationally.”

The potential, she added, is limitless.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I heard from Governor Gillespie that Atlanta turnout is low but Republican turnout is MASSIVE.

First off, he's not a Governor and never was as far as I know

Secondly, he is a known partisan, so take what he says with a grain of salt. Also; why exactly would he be getting data we don't have

Thirdly, where did you see this?

He’s joking

Oh lol. I'm always terrible at detecting sarcasm for some reason and take things way too literally.

To be fair, sarcasm is a lot harder to detect on the interwebs than face to face.

[Kamala's side hoe]

WTF is this?  

https://twitter.com/jhpark06_/status/1346579738651856896

FF tweet

[Kamala's side hoe]

So what non-political things are you guys doing tonight?

I’m playing Call of Duty right now.

It's already past midnight in Germany, but tomorrow is a holiday, so I can stay up.

Off-topic, but what's the holiday?

Edit: TIL Epiphany is a public holiday in Deutschland

Funny coincidence that all of this should happen on Epiphany.

I'm jamming to Selena covers and the Attack on Titan soundtrack. I love the A Slap on Titan parody videos but they're much too vulgar to share on Atlas. (The anime itself might not be Atlas-safe either tbh)

Cover of Dreaming of You

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

AoT season 3 ending themes

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Kamala's side hoe]

Republicans, if you're feeling bummed I have good news for you

McDonald (R) looks to have beaten Blackman (D) for the District 4 Public Service Commission

His campaign focused heavily on climate change. That and a desire to split tickets probably doomed him with country clubbers in places like Roswell, Alpharetta and West Paces Ferry.

SMFH goddamnit... but if what forsythvoter said is true, McDonald is fairly pro-nuclear energy. So that counts for something on the climate action front.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Ugh hopefully Manchin uses his power to stop the left wing agenda and force a more centrist agenda to pass

Biden's agenda is already fairly centrist. It's like some Republicans forget who won the primaries.

Yah centrist compared to how far left the Democratic Party has become but it’s still much to the left of the Democratic Party circa 2015

2015? I really don't get the sense the party has moved all that left since then. Bernie lost twice, "The Squad" doesn't have any power within the party. The leftists may be loud but they are hardly pulling the strings of the party.

Look at how far left the democrats have moved on social issues since then , as well as the fact many in the party are for Court packing .

Even on other issues such as healthcare , the centrist position now is the public option while in 2015 that was the position of the progressive wing of the party . Even things like the green new deal which would have been nuts in 2015 are being entertained now

Bro the Green New Deal (or something similar in terms of green energy infrastructure development) should've been passed 20 years ago.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/BFriedmanDC/status/1346687572173611008

Winning these runoffs is really nice, but it still doesn't take away the fact that the 2020 election was still a disappointing event for down ballot Dems.

We failed to take the Senate [outright] even though we were favored, and we lost a ton of amazing people in the House.

Yeah the Republicans did quite a bit better than the polls and conventional wisdom suggested. Certainly better with many different groups of voters and across much of the country than I (and probably many of you) would've liked.

Imagine telling someone two years ago that Democrats would gain control of the Senate while suffering double-digit losses in the House and winning the presidential tipping point by less than 1 percent

Temporarily changing my avatar and screen name to commemorate Ossoff crossing 50.0% of the counted vote. I did actually live in Metro Atlanta for a year when I was very young, and can attest to a certain Asian presence in the northern suburbs back then.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/BFriedmanDC/status/1346687572173611008

Winning these runoffs is really nice, but it still doesn't take away the fact that the 2020 election was still a disappointing event for down ballot Dems.

We failed to take the Senate [outright] even though we were favored, and we lost a ton of amazing people in the House.

Yeah the Republicans did quite a bit better than the polls and conventional wisdom suggested. Certainly better with many different groups of voters and across much of the country than I (and probably many of you) would've liked.

Imagine telling someone two years ago that Democrats would gain control of the Senate while suffering double-digit losses in the House and winning the presidential tipping point by less than 1 percent

Temporarily changing my avatar and screen name to commemorate Ossoff crossing 50.0% of the counted vote. I did actually live in Metro Atlanta for a year when I was very young, and can attest to a certain Asian presence in the northern suburbs back then.

It seems like the Asian and Hispanic vote in the runoffs shifted pretty strongly D compared to the general, so I do wonder if the meme that these two blocs were going to shift R was a tad premature. Dems definitely made a huge targeted outreach, including in-person contact, to these blocs from what I've read this time. Depending on Ossoff's final margin, this swing along with the black swing /turnout could have been decisive.

My prediction that both Dems would win the runoffs was predicated on Latino and Asian voters turning out for Ossoff and Warnock. It's too early to say how much impact "Other Race" voters actually had, but I think it's safe to say they didn't help Perdue and Loeffler.

[Kamala's side hoe]

It is a notable data point in favor of the theory that unequal turnout caused the GOP swing among non-Border and non-Dade hispanics. This theory supposes that the High-Turnout election saw most reliable Republican and Democratic Hispanics turnout, but the GOP invested in turning out infrequent conservative Hispanics, and Democrats partially disarmed because of COVID, so their infrequent Hispanics were not activated. This would lead to the the group appearing to swing right. A large turnout drop and a large swing left suggests the withdrawal of the infrequent GOP voters, leaving the only both parties frequent voters.

I wonder if this is also applicable for GA and non-GA Asians. Does anyone know how Metro Atlanta precincts with a heavier Asian/non-Latino presence swung in the runoffs?