Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[Canis]

Caruso is basically the Bloomberg of the race. He got in because he can put a ton of money into running and possibly grab the second slot in the runoff just from reaching enough undecided voters with ads.

Yup and Buscaino are the Eric Adams of the race hopefully they split the conservative vote and let two not-awful candidates advance to the runoff.

[Canis]

New Berkley poll that I was part of just released
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-11/karen-bass-rick-caruso-in-dead-heat-mayoral-poll

Rick Caruso 24%
Karen Bass 23%
Kevin De Leon 6%
Gina Viola 2%
Mike Feuer 2%
Joe Buscaino 1%
Alex Grunenfelder 1%
Ramit Varma 1%
Andrew Kim 1% 
Undecided 39%

Second choices

Kevin De Leon 8%
Karen Bass 7%
Mike Feuer 5%
Rick Caruso 4%
Alex Grunenfelder 2%
Gina Viola 2%
Andrew Kim 2%
Craig Grewe 1%
Ramit Varma 1%
Undecided 61%

 
According to the poll 50% of Latinos are undecided of the Lations that are decided its a dead heat between KDL and Buscaino.

The poll also has a geographic breakdown which shows that Caruso is leading Bass 2-1 in the Valley and Bass is leading Caruso in the rest of the city.  Bass also has overwhelming support among black voters and is the highest polling candidate among white liberals.

It's clear that this race will be decided by where the Latino vote goes because of how poorly KDL is polling in all demographics if he wants to win he has to do well among Latino voters to stand a shot at getting into round 2.

At the moment though it looks like the general is very likely to be Bass vs Caruso.

Feuer and Buscaino are also likely done if they're polling this poorly at this point. Since Gina is matching Feuer I wonder if they'll finally invite her to the debate. It'll be interesting to see what she brings to the discussion.

EDIT: Included the full numbers
Im very happy that my candidate Alex is tied with Buscaino, pretty interesting how low Caruso is with second choices also interesting to see KDL doing well their too.
I think that shows it might not be going well for him but he could potentially surge later in the race if he does well with undecideds.

This race is far from over.

[Canis]

After the poll came out theirs been a huge push to include Gina and some of the other candidates in the debate since shes outpolling Buscaino. CBS also got a lof of flak for showing a graphic of the poll and excluding Gina but including Joe. The minor candidates held a protest and were interviewed by the LA times at the beginning of this week including my candidate Alex. This morning Caruso called for them to  be included which is definitely something I didn't expect.
https://twitter.com/RickCarusoLA/status/1514293350500773888

[Canis]

Joe Buscaino drops out, endorses Rick Caruso.

City Councilman Joe Buscaino on Thursday announced he is dropping out of the Los Angeles mayoral race and endorsing billionaire developer Rick Caruso.

"Rick and I agree on the playbook to solve the city's pressing issues," Buscaino said in a statement. "Today's decision did not come easy, but the future of Los Angeles is my priority. Together we will make Los Angeles cleaner and safer for all."

Hmmm and a week ago, he was insinuating (correctly) that Caruso is a privileged rich kid who can’t solve any of the city’s problems because he epitomizes them. Guess your dignity is easy to sell when you’re polling at 1% and 0% as a second choice. Rick Caruso is running on two things, homelessness and crime, and he is going to have a very hard time explaining why he is qualified to solve these problems when he: 1. Has served on the police board for decades and missed almost half of its meetings; 2. Became a billionaire only through the exact kind of corrupt, city hall agreements that arbitrarily jack up this city’s housing prices. I still think that there are just enough people here who understand the absurdity of his argument that he can’t win.

I don’t see this moving the dial, and I do thankfully see the Caruso momentum sliding. I still expect him to make it into the run off, but I did my duty, held my nose, and voted for Kevin de Leon this weekend to try to prevent that. I fully expect him to overperform his polls, as will Karen Bass and Caruso as undecideds make their moves. 

A few other outstanding, interesting questions for those interested in LA politics:

1. Will Kenneth Mejia continue to cruise in his election for city controller or will the establishment finally turn on him?

2. Who tf goes to round 2 of our sheriff election against Villanueva?

3. How do Gil Cedillo and Mitch O’Farrell’s progressive challengers do in the June primary? If either incumbent is held under 50%, like David Ryu was, they are in deep trouble

4. Will conservadems claim Mike Bonin’s seat? Can they retain Koretz’s and Buscaino’s?

1. the Establishment did attack Kenneth after he got the LA times endorsement with that hit piece with all his old tweets. I saw that move some people against Kenneth but IMO it was largely ineffective as Kenneth continues to create positive headlines about himself and pickup big endorsements people have forgotten about his old tweets. I don't think theirs anything else they have left to throw at him Im really confident on him winning.

2. That is a really interesting question which I don't know the answer of I voted for Eric Strong and I hope he makes but if I had to guess id say its Rhambo but Luna and Vera also are decent contenders.

3. Gil is only facing Hernadez so his election will be decided in June. I really hope Mitch gets less than 50 he needs to go down after the Echo Park disaster.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

[Canis]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

Ohhhhhhh I thought you were in the 13th because you said were organizing against O'Farrell. Did you pick a candidate in that race I think its gonna end up being Hugo vs Mitch now Hugo's got all the big endorsements and from what I've heard has been killing it with the ground game.

Speaking of Caruso,
Kenneth and his volunteers have been running into a lot of Caruso/Meija voters. Which is just stunning to me because ideologically their so opposed. Most of their justifications have been they just want outsiders from city and state politics in office because of all the corruption in city hall which is understandable for Kenneth lol but acting like Caruso won't act just as corrupt is bizarre to me he was influencing city politics from the outside for years with his money.

I wonder how large or significant a voting block these Caruso/Meija voters will be. It also sort of reminds me of Bernie/Trump voters who didn't really have any ideology just wanted outsiders in office.

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

Not sure who you're referring to but if its KDL not well. The last poll had him at 6%. the bulk of undecided voters is Hispanic though which is his best demographic but in order to make the GE he'd have to get over 60% of undecideds which is incredibly unlikely IMO.

[Canis]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

Ohhhhhhh I thought you were in the 13th because you said were organizing against O'Farrell. Did you pick a candidate in that race I think its gonna end up being Hugo vs Mitch now Hugo's got all the big endorsements and from what I've heard has been killing it with the ground game.

Speaking of Caruso,
Kenneth and his volunteers have been running into a lot of Caruso/Meija voters. Which is just stunning to me because ideologically their so opposed. Most of their justifications have been they just want outsiders from city and state politics in office because of all the corruption in city hall which is understandable for Kenneth lol but acting like Caruso won't act just as corrupt is bizarre to me he was influencing city politics from the outside for years with his money.

I wonder how large or significant a voting block these Caruso/Meija voters will be. It also sort of reminds me of Bernie/Trump voters who didn't really have any ideology just wanted outsiders in office.

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

Not sure who you're referring to but if its KDL not well. The last poll had him at 6%. the bulk of undecided voters is Hispanic though which is his best demographic but in order to make the GE he'd have to get over 60% of undecideds which is incredibly unlikely IMO.

6%? He lost all the Hispanic VRA House districts in Los Angeles and Orange County in 2018. He won't get many undecideds.

39% of Los Angeles voters were undecided in that poll and they were mostly his best demographics so he will definitely get a good chunk of them but I think the chance of him getting enough to beat Caruso or Bass is probably less than 1% his campaign is pretty much toast. He did file to run for LG in 2026 so it looks like he knows that too.
ATM id predict the first round results will be something like this
Caruso 26-33%ish
Bass 25-30%ish
Kevin De Leon 15-18%ish
Viola 5-8%ish
Wilson 2-5%
Gruenenfelder 0-2%
Grewe 0-2%

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AllestOfficial/status/1530736990345236480

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/NoahJAguirre/status/1531807542715686912?t=NMdT4_2PpZvRcFtjT6...
Hilarious and somewhat true though I doubt Caruso can clear 50%

[Canis]

Its crazy how close the City attorney race is theirs almost a 3-way tie at the top. Hopping Faisal Gill makes it to the GE. Also very happy about Meija crushing it in round 1 let's hope he does the same in the general!  Mitch O'Farrell is also in a lot of trouble in CD13 (only getting 36% as an incumbent in the primary does not bode well for him against Hugo in November) and I'm very glad Erin Darling made it as well.
Overall not a bad night for progressives I'm bummed that it almost certainly didn't work out for Shervin but Angelica and David made the general again and Maebe and Daniel Lee are also very close and could also potentially make the general.

[Canis]

People in cities are unhappy with the status quo, especially in regards to crime and homelessness, which has opened the door for candidates like Eric Adams and now Caruso. Can't keep sweeping these issues under the rug, people are fed up.

The only ones who want to sweep it under the rug are the establishment in Los Angeles the Garcetti, De Leon types. They sweep the unhoused from neighborhood to neighborhood while defunding our social services in favor of the already way too large police budget and placing the unhoused in temporary housing. 
The left wants to build more affordable housing and social housing to lower housing costs and deal with poverty to lower crime. While the right like Caruso wants to increase the criminalization of poverty with measures such as LAMC 41.18 and just remove the homeless from the city and allow black rock and other private equity firms to continue buying property and building single unit housing that is way to expensive for anyone whose not a millionare to afford.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/reporterliz/status/1535391620819890176
Mitch is in big big trouble thank god

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1543761954233204737
Primary results make it look like a giant uphill climb for Caruso, between right and left leaning candidates the left leaning candidates got about 60% of the vote. Caruo's only hope is to aggressively pursue Latino voters which he won in the primary but I'm sure most Latino voters who voted for KDL will go to Bass.
https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1543695711509680129

[Canis]

Looks like it was a really strong performance from the left in LA this primary. I am curious how the other council races will play out in the fall.

I am as well. I think Hugo will likely win in 13 thankfully. But 15 and 11 are guaranteed to be close I really hope Erin Darling and Danielle pull it off so the reactionaries cannot claim victory thief

[Canis]

I hope the LA Times ordered a poll for the Mayoral race. Outside of Biden/Harris endorsing Bass earlier this month, that race has been dead quiet since the primary.

Caruso is saving his money for a big ad blitz next month and October and Bass is husbanding her resources and doing outreach to voters who supported Gina Alex and KDL.

Though some have been angry with her spending limited amounts of time at these listening events her campaign has been set up, People were most angered when Bass issued her support of the expansion of 41.18 which caused city hall to be shut down when the council voted on it by protestors.
https://twitter.com/KateCagle/status/1557461065214021633
Many in Gina's camp have been advocating voters to leave the mayors race blank or write in Gina if Karen doesn't Reverse her position on the issue.

Also, Caruso was endorsed by corrupt and recently defeated city councilman Gil Cedillo who lost a close race to left-wing Challenger Euniess in the June Primary despite Gil being endorsed by Bernie. (Though Bernie only endorsed him to return the favor of Gil being the only city councilman to back him in 2016 and 2020 many activists and former Bernie staff begged Bernie to recind his endorsement and he ignored it)https://twitter.com/RickCarusoLA/status/1558196765760917511
I doubt this endorsement will have much impact especially because of Gil's recent Defeat.

Karen was endorsed by some local west valley Dems last week City Councilman Bob Blummenfield, State Senator Henry Stern, and Congressman Brad Sherman. Caruso ran it up in the West Valley in the primary these endorsements will have little impact but it shows the local dem machine is fully behind Karen at this point https://twitter.com/HenrySternCA/status/1560752862879256576

[Canis]

This threads been quite for a while
Bass has extended her lead in the polls until recently with Caruso's ad wave bombing has begun and the race has tightened up.
Caruso's also sent out ads attacking her for the Scientology speech and USC bribery scandal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G14hewuMBFo&ab_channel=FOX11LosAngeles
However Bass has returned fire with ads about Caruso covering up sexual assault during his time as a Trustee for USC.
https://twitter.com/KarenBassLA/status/1578179874828603392
Their was a debate tonight and Bass took Caruso down.

In other LA city news Kenneth Meija has essentially locked up his race for city controller with the endorsements of Stephanie Clements and J. Carolan O'Gabhann
https://twitter.com/kennethmejiaLA/status/1575551047233200128
Koretz's campaign is still desperately attacking Kenneth with new billboards to counter Kenneth's with his previous statements about Biden and the Police and no mention of Koretz lol. Most recently a new TV ad comparing Kenneth to Jan 6th Rioters
https://twitter.com/UnrigLA/status/1577719016272994304

[Canis]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

Me too hes really charismatic and a very good dude with a good heart. Rick Cole compared him to Bobby Kennedy for a reason he could even run for president down the line.

[Canis]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

Me too hes really charismatic and a very good dude with a good heart. Rick Cole compared him to Bobby Kennedy for a reason he could even run for president down the line.

What would be the best move after Controller? Governor or another statewide office?

Maybe state controller or treasurer and then Gov.

[Canis]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ib2_real/status/1579933930106458112

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

I was just over there. It's just really sad.

I'm watching live rn. O'Farrell is a crook like the other three, but he is playing this moment beautifully.

He just announced support for expanding the City Council, which is a rly big deal... and would almost guarantee his comeback when he loses re-election to Hugo Soto-Martinez this November.

He also just announced that Nury, Kevin, and Gil should resign, which is the death knell and maybe also a revitalization moment for his own campaign.

I don't think it will revitalize his campaign every la politician including Villanueva and Caruso has called on their resignation at this point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRlnk0xgP_c&ab_channel=ABC7
https://twitter.com/ib2_real/status/1579919924729851904
Mike Bonin and Isaac Bryans speeches were amazing btw and definitely worth a watch

[Canis]

Clearly, the ideological right, left, and center of the City Council are skewed compared to everywhere else because Republicans barely exist here (i.e. the right is Buscaino and Lee; the left is Bonin, Raman, Hernandez, etc; the center is Krekorian, O'Farrell, Rodriguez, etc).

I'm not talking about what ideas are being fielded on twitter or in other online forums. I'm talking about who can actually make it to 8 votes this Tuesday when only 12 members vote. I'm hoping they can come to a consensus fast otherwise it could get brutal.

It seems to be a race between Price and Krekorian and I am worried about a blunder if Price gets it over Krekorian. If Price becomes Council President there will be hideous digital advertising billboards up on the sides of City Hall within days. (Only half kidding)...

Or, it would be fascinating - since Tuesday's meeting will be virtual - if Kevin and Gil try to show up and vote.

MHD would be a much better pick than price IMO and I don't see the current left councilmembers backing price I haven't heard anyone floating him either so I'm curious where you getting that frorm. not that it matters much anyway Los Angele's city council will likely be completely different in January. Hernandez will replace Cedillo Hugo will likely beat Mitch, Darling will probably (Hopefully) beat Park. heck if Sandoval pulls of the upset in 15 we might have the votes to make Nithya council president. Plus we have a chance at electing a progressive in CD 6 now that Nurys is out and theirs gonna be a special election hopefully KDL does the right thing too and resigns as well.

[Canis]

A few things...

1. McOsker is the biggest ? on city council. I'm obviously not a fan, but think he is def more principled than Buscaino and maybe even his opponent sadly. He also will represent the most ignored parts of the city, many of which (the Black/Latino sections most likely) won't even be his constituents by the time he runs for re-election if this redistricting package is rly pushed through in 2024. Will be interesting to see whether he becomes a "conservative" on the council or takes a more centrist approach. My guess is the latter because he has designs on being mayor one day and can see clearly from Caruso's example that this city has absolutely no appetite for empowering the "conservative" faction.

2. Rodriguez was honestly v lucky to not be in the room because she is maybe the worst of all Latino reps on city council. On homelessness issues, she is truly heartless. Also in the pocket of big real estate. Wonder where she will go from here, because she is extremely isolated now, losing her allies (Wesson, Nury, Koretz) very quickly. She will be primaried again for sure, but I wonder if she might pivot to the left to head that off. Heather Hutt is her natural ally, because she's in a similar predicament.

3. Yikes. I forgot about Heather Hutt. She should've resigned too tbh and I've heard a good number of Black people in the city say the same thing. She's DOA in a primary, but also a useful tool for Herb Wesson, Caruso, the machine, etc. I actually feel v bad for her. She was loudly and publicly used. But I also expected more from her than "I'm not a tool, let's have redistricting reform." This seat has a lot of potential for progressives and I fully expect a Black progressive to challenge her.

4. Price, also yikes. He and Monica's cynical ploy to use identity politics to keep the city gov't in the hands of big real estate disgusts me. His primary was a huge missed opportunity, but the vote shows he is essentially a nobody on city council. I feel bad for his constituents

5. Mejia vs Koretz is getting nasty, and Koretz is clearly using the same bot source as Rick Caruso because you can't even type Kenneth's name on Twitter or Reddit without attracting trolls. This will be the closest race, I think

6. Because unfortunately, I expect Hydee to thwomp Faisal Gill. Her signs are everywhere. She's running a terrific campaign. I did not vote for her bc I have read literally dozens of empirical studies that show that prosecuting petty misdemeanors is a waste of gov't resources that doesn't make us much safer. But I considered it. I fully expect her to win

7. Caruso seems to have peaked early again, and this week the momentum feels like it's falling out from under him. The LA Times called him out on his bullsh**t this AM, bc he clearly knows more about Tyndall and Kelly than he's letting on. He's a terrible candidate and the problem is that whenever his money shifts the spotlight to him instead of trashing Karen Bass, he still looks bad because he sucks so badly. He's a "political outsider" who actually is just a real estate billionaire who got rich precisely bc he was cozy w/ city hall. He's a "democrat" who is clearly a conservative republican lol. He's a rich guy, which these days is actually a - in most of southern california. He's a terrible candidate for mayor in a place like LA. So, I expect him to go down and prolly by a healthy margin

8. Buttt.... boy Karen Bass is gonna have a lot on her hands: factional city hall, gascon's re-election looming in the background, and really vibrant and growing social movements. Buckle up, LA (I'm also planning to leave lol)

Meija vs Koretz isn't gonna be close. Koretz is using bots and sending out tons of negative texts to smear Kenneth because hes desperate. Kenneth is wayyyy ahead. trust me as someone working with the campaign, Kenneth got this locked up when he secured the Clements endorsement securing the LA times endorsement again was the cherry on top. Plus they have tons of mailers and canvassing events planned for the last few weeks just to be safe, I don't think theirs anything Koretz can do to win at this point unless Kenneth has a serious scandal hes well ahead. I agree with all of your analysis on the other races though

[Canis]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he ran.

As for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

[Canis]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he won.

as for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

I really need someone to explain to me how 1/10th of voters in this city are pulling the lever for both the "eat the rich" guy and a billionaire.

I expect Hugo to win. No idea about Darling, but would be truly appalled and not at all surprised to hear the roidheads on the Westside sent a fash to the city council.

The last big ? for me is whether or not outstanding ballots are blue enough to lift Lindsey Horvath past Bob Hertzberg for City Council. it's weird he's winning on such an anti-establishment occasion. Probably because Horvath is tied to Sheila Kuehl

I spent over 600 hours in the field and ran into a few of em and they were mostly low-info voters who just liked how Rick and Kenneth both portrayed themselves as outsiders and fell for Caruso's smears about Karen.

[Canis]

The Meijaslide is so beautiful
https://twitter.com/kennethmejiaLA/status/1590594300408369152
heres the mayors race for comparison
https://twitter.com/kennethmejiaLA/status/1590602591607455744

[Canis]

Today's the CD 6 special election to fill the seat of Former City Council president Nury Martinez who was involved in the tape scandal last October.

CD6 is in the central and east San Fernando Valley Bernie got nearly 70% there in 2020 and Rick Caruso carried it by a very narrow margin last year it's a heavily Hispanic district.

LAPPL (Los Angeles Police Union) dropped a few thousand in mailers to attack the two leading Progressive candidates Marco Santana and Antoniette Scully but have not backed a candidate. there are two major pro Police candidates Ilmeda Padilla and Marisa Alcaraz.

Marisa, Marco, Antoniette and Ilmeda are the 4 major candidates with shots of making the almost certainly inevitable runoff, I'm rooting for Antoniette but I think a runoff between Marco and either Marisa or Ilmeda is the most likely scenario. This should be really interesting though I'll be following the results of this race closely.