PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Canis]

My king Fetterman! when I can im gonna send him some money obviously endorsed

[Canis]

Yeah looks like the hype around Kenyatta was all immaterial most likely the primary will be a race between Fetterman and Lamb. Fetterman is definitely the favorite at the moment and Lamb's attacks against him are a good sign of it. Hopefully, the primary doesn't get too nasty. This is by far the Dems best pickup opportunity next year a win here could be crucial to holding the senate.

[Canis]

Fetterman and Lamb will vote the same 99% of the time if they're elected to the Senate, so what really matters is who you think would be a better general election candidate.

I would not be too sure about that lol Lamb voted with Trump 68% of the time during his first term in congress. He takes tons of corporate and special interest money and it has influenced how he's voted on important legislation like the time he voted to gut Banking regulation.
https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1460262958974611457
 I also don't buy the narrative that Lamb is more electable in 2020 he was significantly outrun by 2 self-described socialists!
https://twitter.com/Fo4Afuture/status/1471304680894615553
What matters is electing a senator beholden to people and not special interests.

[Canis]

While I'm rooting for Fetterman, it's still unfortunate Tom Wolf isn't a decade younger. Otherwise, he could for the seat and would probably be favored even in a bad midterm environment.

Yeah, Wolf is extremely popular in PA, and I was surpised to see just how popular. I think he'd win by a decent amount even in this purple state even in a red wave. In 2018 he won by 17 points and won PA16 (which went for Trump by 18 points in 2020). If he ran in the 2022 senate race PA16 would most likely still go red but he'd probably win by a good amount.

Fetterman and Lamb will vote the same 99% of the time if they're elected to the Senate, so what really matters is who you think would be a better general election candidate.

I would not be too sure about that lol Lamb voted with Trump 68% of the time during his first term in congress. He takes tons of corporate and special interest money and it has influenced how he's voted on important legislation like the time he voted to gut Banking regulation.
https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1460262958974611457
 I also don't buy the narrative that Lamb is more electable in 2020 he was significantly outrun by 2 self-described socialists!
https://twitter.com/Fo4Afuture/status/1471304680894615553
What matters is electing a senator beholden to people and not special interests.

This is genuinely shocking. I knew Lamb has voted with the GOP on some things, but 68%? That's about on par with Collins and Murkowski, unless I'm wrong.

Electability arguments one way or the other are stupid and circular. It is the least salient argument to make that one candidate hypothetically would do better than another one in the general. We saw this play out in large scale elections like Trump in 16, the Democratic primaries in 20, and in smaller scale elections like ME-Sen in 20. It's nonsensical to make this argument.

Primaries, as far as I'm concerned, should strictly be about ideology. If a candidate can win a majority or plurality of Democrats in a state like PA, all Democrats in PA should be willing to get behind them in the general. Anything beyond that is mere speculation. Vote for the candidate who aligns with your values and then push to get the Democratic nominee elected in November. It's that simple. Yes, from an ideological standpoint, I would not vote for Conor Lamb in the primary. Kenyatta, Fetterman, even Arkoosh align with my values more than he does. But Lamb aligns with my values significantly more than Oz, McCormick, Bartos, or whatever clown wins the GOP nomination would.

All the same, you shouldn't delude yourself that all candidates are equally electable. For instance (and I know WV isn't PA, I'm just making a general point), Joe Manchin is in many ways a DINO and faced a primary challenge from a left-wing Democrat in 2018, and won. If you voted from an ideological standpoint, you would likely support that left-wing Democrat (Paula Jean Swearengin). However, this would run quite obviously counter to the bigger goal of making sure someone who you at least partially agree with (i.e., a Democrat) wins, since Manchin still won the race by 3 and Swearengin lost by some 40 points two years later when she got nominated. Of course PA is much, much, much bluer than WV. But the point is, look for ideological purity within the bounds of electability. Personally I don't think Lamb is necessarily much more electable than people like Kenyetta and Fetterman. In fact, that brings me to my next point: Fetterman and Kenyetta are about equally liberal/progressive, except (I think) Fetterman's much likelier to win. So, unless you perceive some massive difference between the two candidates, you should also consider electability. Ideology is important, but electability should hardly be ignored. Not all candidates are equal, and in some cases (NOT that this is necessarily one of them, since PA is swingy and elects enough liberal Democrats), you need to sacrifice your ideology for the greater good. I mean, right-wing Republicans in ME who voted to primary Collins in 2020 would probably be going against their own interest (i.e., a Republican winning), since only Collins can win as far as Republicans go. So, while it doesn't apply much to PA, this is the wrong takeaway, since electability is an important factor to consider, and should be far from exclusively pertaining to ideology, if the goal is getting someone who agrees with you on a healthy percentage of issues.

For the 115th Congress, 68% was lower than Collins and Murkowski
Collins voted with Trump 77% of the time and Murkowski voted 81% of the time but he actually voted with Trump more than Manchin did. Manchin voted with Trump 60% of the time.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/joe-manchin-iii/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/conor-lamb/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/susan-m-collins/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/lisa-murkowski/

Lamb voted much more liberally in his second term because his seat got much bluer but to me, that just shows he has no ideological values he's flipped flop on many issues including the $15 minimum wage. Its very important Democrats select a nominee who will be a reliable vote and has progressive values and isn't beholden to Dark money and Lamb isn't that guy. Obviously, if Lamb became the nominee id support him because he's better than the republicans but seeing as how Bidens agenda is being held up by 2 democrats bought by corporate interests it should serve as a reminder that we can select someone like Fetterman or Kenyatta who wont be and will actually serve the people

[Canis]

I mean, I agree that Fetterman has been kind of a political opportunist, but calling him "another Sinema"() because he "ditched Bernie in '20"() is just an absolutely smooth brain take.

Especially pulling for Kenyatta, who was one of Biden's earliest and most vocal supporters in PA...

What is that even in reference to?
Also Fetterman dropped two ads this morning I think these are the first he's released since he announced his run 11 months ago. They're pretty strong and impressive IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xuw-VbTqF14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fG_dyKqb-g&ab_channel=JohnFetterman

[Canis]

Their was a debate between all the democratic candidates that Fetterman attended here's the link to watch it
https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/events/us-senate-debate-march-20

[Canis]

Looks Like Fetterman's campaign has woke up
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1505914592559603715
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1506767013791813635
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1506979407528972302
Seems like this was his strategy all along fundraise through the early and middle parts of primary and then kick field and ads into overdrive in the last stretch before the primary. As someone with a big lead in the polls, this was probably smart well see how it plays out. That's pretty much what incumbents here in Cali do let their challengers waste all their money in the early and middle phase so when the most important part of the primary comes they can focus on turning out their base and doing a media blitz. I think this shows Fetterman is a much more skilled politician than people give him credit for.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1511396967355719688?t=I6q-_CFa0OCQz9cJR...
Fetterman claps back hard at lamb
He's also been campaigning in deep red counties to sold out venues
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1511102975485386753?t=cqGyXZREOwtYG7Anh...
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1510687638625394690?t=FNByjKAszqkIJxPSf...
He's also been endorsed by the postal workers union
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1511076639614119940?t=O89a2rDlDCbYKQDth...

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1524749454976368640

If I had to guess he's behind McCormick but doesn't want to endorse because he thinks his endorsement will hurt him because of his impeachment vote

[Canis]

I'd argue the objective worst D candidate in recent memory is Sara Gideon, who managed to lose by 8 while Biden was winning her state by 9. Even Strickland didn't get outrun by the top of the ticket by 17 points.

I would say both. Collins was a strong candidate.

At the same time, Gideon and the DSCC basically ran a campaign that appealed to #Resistance Twitter and nobody else. Northern New England - especially Maine - is a very parochial, insular region. Gideon imported nearly her entire campaign from Washington, DC. Ticket-splitting still matters up here, and you can't just scream "orange man bad" over and over again and expect to win. Gideon's campaign was almost totally devoid of kitchen-table issues and mostly tied Collins to Trump. For all the talk after 2020 about the left only appealing to their section of Twitter activists, the Democrats are awfully unwilling to practice what they preach.

(I do think you can make an argument for Gideon, FWIW. But I think with what he's done and the political calculations he's made this cycle, Lamb has fallen the farthest from expectations.)

Also, Don't forget Lisa Savage was in the race and got 4.95% and almost all of her voters second prefed Gideon so Collins won by about 3-4% actually, Savage's vote share kind of distorts how well Collins did.

[Canis]

Yeah, I can see Fetterman winning here while Dems lose all the other competitive races, Oz is just not a good candidate and Fetterman is running a great campaign. In fact I hope that happens. Honestly Fetterman is the only Dem I can see winning the electoral college in 2024.

[Canis]

Yeah, I can see Fetterman winning here while Dems lose all the other competitive races, Oz is just not a good candidate and Fetterman is running a great campaign. In fact I hope that happens. Honestly Fetterman is the only Dem I can see winning the electoral college in 2024.

Here’s the thing, the candidates in other competitive races are a clearly brain damaged celebrity athlete, zombie eyed granny starter redux, and an incumbent knee deep in sedition and too stupid to walk and chew gum.

I could definitely see this cycle getting better.

Oh yeah definitely this isn't set in stone and Walker is a weak candidate as well in GA as well as Masters in AZ if he gets the nomination but rn things aren't looking great so well see but Fetterman is in a strong position relative to the national environment.