OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Rjjr77]

After I had been hearing early rumors about another congressman possibly challenging Mandel, Rob Portman surprisingly endorsed Mandel very early, essentially clearing the field.

[Rjjr77]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture

[Rjjr77]

Can someone other than Mandel  for this seat? I'd prefer not to see another 6 years of Sherrod Brown.

short of someone like Bill Johnson getting in at this point, i think the Portman endorsement set this in stone.

[Rjjr77]

Self-funder Michael Gibbons is in.

Not gonna go anywhere. Especially as, per Cleveland.com, Gibbons won't run as a self-funder.

Yawn. not a serious challenger

[Rjjr77]

The OH GOP is a joke. They need to get behind Mandel or put up a real challenger. I am a strong backer of Mandel, but if they really don't want him then put up a challenger.

Yeah it's the gop's fault some no name banker decides to jump in.

Mandel will win, the party won't play favorites and Sherrod will still be tilt leader

[Rjjr77]

Financial disclosure of Mandel's travel in 2016 shows all of it as political.

Mandel claims he consolidated official business under political so there was no chance tax dollars went to political travel, but ... now it's really hard to find what, if any, out-of-state work he did. This perpetuates his careerist image, and wouldn't be surprised if it winds up in an ad.

He paid for his own travel though, what's the ad? Politician pays for political travel with political dollars?

Sherrod can't really smack him for traveling, it's also not really a move that benefits brown. If mandel had a real primary it could be an ad, seems more like slow news day to md

[Rjjr77]

Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?

The answer should be clear.

Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains.

You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat.

Kasich's approval rating come election time 2012 wasn't awful, he began rallying in early 2012. Considering the slide they've started to slowly take now they probably aren't much different than they are at the moment

[Rjjr77]

Would Brown be favored if Mandel isn't the GOP nominee?

The people that could make it a toss up won't get in, I think brown wins, Not by a big margin, but still a solid win

[Rjjr77]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

[Rjjr77]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

He's running in a republican primary, and as such must appeal to primary voters before he can face the general. Your messaging needs to be directed at things republican primary voters care about, repealing obamacare and cutting taxes. Voters aren't voting for anyone who's ad is "Well my opponent and I believe the same thing and both think Sherrod Brown should go"

[Rjjr77]

Some obvious bias in this piece, but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state.

I don't think posting Larkin columns should be allowed on here, the guys a polemic.

[Rjjr77]

Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.

Nah mandel would beat Renacci, he's too unknown in the state. Taylor could give him a run, don't know if it would knock him out.

[Rjjr77]

Take the source with a grain of salt.

I dont think hes running at all

[Rjjr77]

Take the source with a grain of salt.

I dont think hes running at all

I hope not, but I assume he'll run for something eventually. And it would likely have to be something statewide since he moved back to Columbus and not Middletown. It would also have to be sooner rather than later because the sheen of Hilbilly Eligy will wear off.

I have been straight up told he isnt running this cycle, i'll put it that way. now if someone LGS him maybe

[Rjjr77]

Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates

I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have.

[Rjjr77]

Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates

I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have.

I definitely disagree, the most political a church should get is the sermon. But honestly, the 501(c)3 bit is much worse. Mandel just wants to cloak himself in as much dark money as possible.

you could make that argument that tons of non-profits shouldn't be able to get political, its kind of silly that a church cant but a union can, neither of which pay taxes. And in every state church membership is voluntary.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod.

Kasich couldnt win the primary.
Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

I mean its not that nonsense and it wasn't made up by Mandel. She specifically made those allegations during their divorce. While it may have been she made false allegations or they've made up, they were made.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them.

[Rjjr77]

Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic.

Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain.

None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again.

In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race.

Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that.

It's not in anyway slanderous, nor is it outrageous for me to mention in such a casual way. It has been used routinely in campaigns against Brown with varying levels of success, it is a pretty open and public topic, and it is a legitimate allegation made against him by his ex-wife. For me to think that it could sink the presidential aspirations of a  64 year old white male senator from the midwest, in what I expect to be a crowded (but top heavy) field is not in anyway unreasonable.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them.

The. Allegations. Are. False. As. Claimed. By. The. Accuser. Herself. So. Stop. Trolling. And. Shut. Up.

Its not trolling, its a legitimate point, and I'll absolutely stand by that statement and its asinine to get attacked personally over a legit point

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them.

Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence.  If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence.  That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it.  Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth.  And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel).

Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything.

Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are.

Lets look at the facts.
This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies)
I, nor mandel, didn't make it up.

You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president.