OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[BuckeyeNut]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

[Rjjr77]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

He's running in a republican primary, and as such must appeal to primary voters before he can face the general. Your messaging needs to be directed at things republican primary voters care about, repealing obamacare and cutting taxes. Voters aren't voting for anyone who's ad is "Well my opponent and I believe the same thing and both think Sherrod Brown should go"

[BuckeyeNut]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

He's running in a republican primary, and as such must appeal to primary voters before he can face the general. Your messaging needs to be directed at things republican primary voters care about, repealing obamacare and cutting taxes. Voters aren't voting for anyone who's ad is "Well my opponent and I believe the same thing and both think Sherrod Brown should go"

Sure, but he hasn't really contrasted himself with Mandel, either.

I'm, rather obviously, not a Republican operative, and for good reason, but I'd either go after Mandel hard, establish credibility -- which admittedly, I think Gibbons did okay -- or position the candidate as the guy to win the general.

[mcmikk]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

[BuckeyeNut]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

Junk.

There has been no credible poll of this race yet.

[_]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

[windjammer]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

But there is a poll showing Kid Rock leading by 9!!!!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

But there is a poll showing Kid Rock leading by 9!!!!

Not a credible one

[BuckeyeNut]

Some obvious bias in this piece, but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state.

[Rjjr77]

Some obvious bias in this piece, but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state.

I don't think posting Larkin columns should be allowed on here, the guys a polemic.

[publicunofficial]

When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend.  I imagine he'll be a lot like that.

[PragmaticPopulist]

When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend.  I imagine he'll be a lot like that.

This.

Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once.

From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend.  I imagine he'll be a lot like that.

This.

Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once.

From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton.

He's sooooooooooo much worse than that, take it from an Ohioan

[TJ in Oregon]

*shrug*

The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse.

Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

*shrug*

The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse.

Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials.

Even in 2012, I knew more than a few folks who voted straight-ticket Republican...except in the Senate race where they voted for Brown instead of Mandel (obviously this is anecdotal, but still).  Even folks who disagree with him generally consider him a decent guy (aside from your fire-breathing partisans and whacktivists).

[BuckeyeNut]

The immediate past chair of the Richland County GOP voted for Brown.

ION: Gibbons is hiring staff tied to Kasich.

[Heisenberg]

I'm feeling really terrible about this race now. I wish Mandel would drop out and Renacci (whose Governor bid isn't going anywhere) switches to this one.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.

[Rjjr77]

Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.

Nah mandel would beat Renacci, he's too unknown in the state. Taylor could give him a run, don't know if it would knock him out.

[Heisenberg]

Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.

Gibbons's advantage seems to be simply that he is not Mandel. He's very closely tied to Kasich, which, after the primary season, seems to be a major DISadvantage (especially in the primaries, but still in the general as well, the GOP base won't be fired up, and it won't do anything with regards to crossover appeal).

[Badger]

When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend.  I imagine he'll be a lot like that.

This.

Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once.

From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton.

He's sooooooooooo much worse than that, take it from an Ohioan

[Gustaf]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

"This video is unlisted. Be considerate and think twice before sharing."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mandel is so awful that the Columbus Dispatch endorsed Sherrod Brown in 2012 (and not one of those reluctant half-endorsements either IIRC). 

[BuckeyeNut]

Take the source with a grain of salt.