Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[Tekken_Guy]

I still expect Santos to stay the entire term but this is a likely flip in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Madison Cawthorn could stay his whole term in his Trump+12 seat there’s no reason to think the GOP will be willing to hand a house seat back to Democrats.

[Tekken_Guy]

If only freakin Tom Suozzi didn’t abandon this seat for a suicide for governor.  Did any Dems even try and talk him out of it?

Suozzi would have lost too.

[Tekken_Guy]

He's not going to resign. He doesn't have the integrity that would be necessary to do so.

And the GOP will do everything in their power to not have to defend a Biden+8 seat in a special election.

[Tekken_Guy]

I can think of at least one Republican who would run in a special and make it at least a competitive race, Michael Montesano.

Democrats have a deeper bench in the district, I suppose, but a Suozzi comeback campaign (at least for a special) would probably be their best option.

Assuming Suozzi doesn't run, I could see Lafazan making another run

Outside of a Suozzi comeback Anna Kaplan’s probably the best option Dems have here.

Though she just lost re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Santos isn’t going to resign and is going to stick around like Chris Collins did. Republicans are too afraid of losing the seat in the special to call on him to resign.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, it's clear that he seems either likely to resign or he knows the walls are closing in and he'll be ousted.

He’s too shameless to resign.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He's never going to resign voluntarily and I am skeptical enough Republicans will be on board for expulsion.

[Tekken_Guy]

Shameful.  About a year ago I predicted that he wouldn’t survive a primary challenger but it’s looking increasingly likely that he may win a second term. He has active warrants and on a party-line vote they kept him in. Between him & Gosar threatening AOC last session, they really protect their own.
https://www.npr.org/2023/05/16/1176489151/house-democrat-introduces-resolution-to-expel-rep-george-santos-from-congress

Even if he somehow made it out of the primary he’s DOA in a general.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted. 

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted. 

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

I really doubt that Santos will put the party's interests ahead of his own.

That is true. They’ll be rid of him after 2024 so at most they have another year and a half left to deal with him. Republicans’ main interest is to prevent a special election so that Democrats don’t get an incumbency advantage going into 2024 rather than just being a competitive open seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted. 

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/skrichev13/status/1711857987705315451?t=miV6IWDNDX8NSfgiic1I...

One wonders if the seat will be vacant or if we will have a late special.

Santos is not resigning.

[Tekken_Guy]

From a political standpoint, you'd think Republican's would rather risk a low turnout special and potentially get a half decent incumbent as opposed to a high turnout presidential year where democrats have a good chance of taking the seat back against a no name. Unless they think it's a one term rental and would rather maximize what little time they have left here.

Or maybe Republicans like their odds in the general more than in a special election, and don’t want to narrow the majority halfway through the term.

[Tekken_Guy]

From a political standpoint, you'd think Republican's would rather risk a low turnout special and potentially get a half decent incumbent as opposed to a high turnout presidential year where democrats have a good chance of taking the seat back against a no name. Unless they think it's a one term rental and would rather maximize what little time they have left here.

Or maybe Republicans like their odds in the general more than in a special election, and don’t want to narrow the majority halfway through the term.

From a political standpoint, you'd think Republican's would rather risk a low turnout special and potentially get a half decent incumbent as opposed to a high turnout presidential year where democrats have a good chance of taking the seat back against a no name. Unless they think it's a one term rental and would rather maximize what little time they have left here.

Republicans don't have a chance in any special election, they are all D+10 shifts.

It's only 12 months till the normal election anyway.

I'd agree that Republican's might prefer the odds in the general vs a special, but that NY-AD-27 special gives me pause as a democrat. If there were a special here, I'd honestly consider republicans favored with the current backlash City Democrats are currently receiving.

Nassau likely shifts to the left in the special though.

[Tekken_Guy]

He is innocent until proven guilty, we shouldn't be expelling people without due process.

They aren't even trying to expel him for his legal crimes. Like fruad, writing bad checks, stealing campaign money, etc.

They want to expel him because he is a clown who lied about...

-His mom dying on 9/11
-His grandmother being a holocaust victim
-Being Jewish
-Going to a prestigious high school he NEVER went to. In reality he barely got his GED
-He was a star vollyball player Baruch college. He never went to ANY college
-Starting an animal charity
-About being the first gay republican married to a man. He NEVER married a man. Only a woman
-Claimed he was an extra on the children's show "Hanna Montana"
-Had friends who died at Pulse
-Not being a drag queen

Like, how are folks on this forum defending this guy? There is no doubt in my mind that if Republicans had a larger minority he would have been expelled months ago. 78% of people in his district want him gone

Lying is not a crime.

[Tekken_Guy]

Anyways, special starts out at Lean D.

He didn’t say he’s leaving early so there’s no special as of now.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s unclear how this affect the redraw process. In theory Democrats could turn NY-04 into an R sink and turn NY-03 into a Safe D seat, but that will be difficult to do as the Democratic vote in NY-04 is densely packed into Hempstead whereas it’s much more spread out in NY-03. It’s possible they make NY-04 a D sink and NY-03 a swing seat that Suozzi would be favored in if he’s the incumbent, but then D’Esposito would probably just run in the 3rd as well setting up at best an incumbent-on-incumbent matchup or at worst a race with D’Esposito as the sole incumbent.