NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Tekken_Guy]

Unlikely any of them and it will be the wrong time to try to take the seat. A presidential year won't be the time. The senate candidate will likely have to beat out the Democrats' presidential nominee by at least 5-7 points to win.

You don't think they can do it even against a toxic Bob Menendez?

Do you think Democrats can primary him? He's toxic.

Maybe Malinowski goes for it now that he’s out of congress?

[Tekken_Guy]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Chiesa is not a politician and is strongly associated with the poisonously unpopular Chris Christie in any case. Menendez seems like his hold on the Democrats is weaker than it was in 2018, with the emergence of an obvious successor in Mikie Sherrill and a Democratic party base that is higher-education and less likely to tolerate him.

In 2018, Bob Hugin ran 10 points ahead of House Republicans (Democrats won the generic ballot in NJ by 21 points, but Menendez won by just 11). If the Republican presidential candidate can hold the Democrat to single-digits in New Jersey and Menendez is renominated and the GOP practices good candidate discipline then the seat is winnable, but that's a big ask. In 2022, both parties contested every House seat in New Jersey and Democrats won 54-44, which seems good but sort of isn't -- in 2020, both parties also contested every seat and Democrats won 57-42, so New Jersey actually swung a little less than America as a whole.

NJ does feel like the sort of place where the 2020s GOP could make appreciable gains if educational polarization were to weaken; it's relatively high-density, which correlates with voters being afraid of crime, has a relatively machine-y Democratic party (this is qualitative) whose methods are to some degree stuck in the past, and has a white population relatively enriched for Italian- and Jewish-Americans, who are vaguely trending right relative to other white Americans. But 2024 seems early for that even if Trump is not nominated, and if he is eyeballing it based on 2022 we might even expect educational polarization to strengthen further.

No one and Kean is set to lose

As currently drawn Kean's seat voted Republican in 2018, and it isn't seeing huge demographic shifts. Absent horrible Republican screw-ups in the campaign, we can probably expect it to hold; I think 2018 is vaguely the high-water mark of the Trump-era Democratic coalition, which is where we still are.

Kean only won by a little over 2 points, and it's not hard to see Democrats get that final two points in a better year for them. And he actually did worse than he would have in 2020 under the new lines. He would have beaten Malinowski by 5 had the 2020s lines been in place then.

[Tekken_Guy]

At least two serious Republicans are now taking a look at the race: Former appointed State Treasurer Andrew Eristoff (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/former-n-j-state-treasurer-mulls-u-s-senate-run-against-menendez/) and Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-mendham-mayor-with-national-gop-ties-may-take-on-menendez-for-u-s-senate/).

Safe D, with or without Menendez.

[Tekken_Guy]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

I wonder if Menendez will agree to step down on the condition that his son gets the seat as opposed to someone like Sherrill or Gottheimer or Kim. Chuck Grassley has been adamant about keeping that seat warm for his grandson.

Also if he resigns early, does Murphy appoint one of the sitting congresspeople, opening up their seat for a special, or does he pick someone not currently in office, like Malinowski?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Serrano-Glassner seems like potentially a very good candidate; her husband was a former Trump campaign official in 2016 and 2020, so she shouldn't struggle with national backing, and she's been elected in a very D-trending area (Mendham Township is Biden+7 in 2020, Trump+5 in 2016), although elections that local often aren't very similar to higher-office elections, which require a different skill set. Also Hispanic.

This might be the thing where I thought Nikki Snyder would be good since she also checked lots of boxes, but I think Serrano-Glassner is a perfectly reasonable choice to try to be a wave beneficiary if 2024 is a very strong Republican year. Obviously the race is hopeless if it is not (I'd honestly put it at Safe D rather than Likely), but having someone credible here would be reasonable.

She’s aligned very closely with Trump which will not play well in the suburbs. If she’s the nominee I don’t see her doing much better than Trump himself will.

Andrew Eristoff is the much more formidable candidate, IMO.

[Tekken_Guy]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

Sherrill is not going to primary Menendez unless the full weight of the party apparatus is behind her, in which case he’d probably just retire. Kim on the other hand, he might actually do so, he doesn’t seem as beholden to the party machines as Sherrill or Gottheimer are, kind of like Malinowski wasn’t.

[Tekken_Guy]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

The bosses aren't all aligned. Kim could receive support from the South Jersey and Middlesex bosses. I think support is unnecessary in any case. A rando got 38% against Menendez. A sitting Representative would probably win, but no one wants to leave a safe seat for a good chance to become senator.
Sherrill is not going to primary Menendez unless the full weight of the party apparatus is behind her, in which case he’d probably just retire. Kim on the other hand, he might actually do so, he doesn’t seem as beholden to the party machines as Sherrill or Gottheimer are, kind of like Malinowski wasn’t.

I wonder if Tom Malinowski would be interested. Now that he’s out of congress there’s nothing for him to lose by running and it’s easy to see him rack up support from the SJ/Middlesex bosses who aren’t in Menendez’ pocket combined with support from his old constituents.

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim (who probably is salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

If he's smart he'd jump into the race as soon as possible and potentially box out Sherrill and Gottheimer.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1705317218991391116

Malinowski calling on Menendez to resign. Maybe the dam really is breaking. Maybe he jumps in before Sherrill makes any moves.

[Tekken_Guy]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

[Tekken_Guy]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

I agree, but I don't think there is a consensus. Menendez's supporters will push for his son in a primary (he won't ever be appointed), then there's Kim, Sherrill, Malinowski, and whoever else the machines decide to push forwards.

I also doubt he could get away with appointing himself since the Lt. Gov is both the Secretary of state (since the Lt. Gov is ceremonial not empowered) and only held the office for 2 weeks.

Don't forget about Gottheimer.

[Tekken_Guy]

Senator Sherrill now!

Senator Kim.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose. 

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

Yeah, maybe Sherrill bowed out, but Gottheimer might come in instead. Sherrill is the strongest potential North Jersey candidate IMO, but lesser candidates could run from any of the larger North Jersey counties and win just since their base would be so much bigger. It reminds me of California where even though Porter got the head start the opportunity to jump at a promotion in a state with so many Democratic officeholders and so few promotions was too good to give up.

Yeah; I think anyone assuming Kim will be the last candidate in doesn't know Jersey. The state is very party-coordinated, but at the county, not the state level. This is very far from over (as much as I like Kim). And your point about so few promotions (since this is one state with only three elected offices and very low turnover to boot) rings very true.

I think that a lot of the big guns are waiting for the gubernatorial race in ‘25.

[Tekken_Guy]

Van Drew running would be less about him actually running to win and more a bombastic retirement from Congress which could lead into a cabinet role. (Trump loves him.) I bet Testa, a real rising star, encourages him.

Agree. But one has to wonder if current House maneuvers are pushing him to do such a retirement.  He was never the most ideologically loyal Democrat, but he still flipped parties after 20 years in the South Jersey machine. Seemingly cause Dems broke with what he saw as rational behavior when they impeached Trump. Now the GOP wishes to do the same to Biden, among other things that the Northeastern 2022 intake opposes and could sink. Leaving that chamber on his own platform could be a way of internally of making peace with all the things that could but seemingly aren't pulling him in opposite directions.

He’s pretty much aligned with the hardcore-MAGA element of his party at this point, so no.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

Why do you believe Sherrill is going to run? With Kim already in the race she has no incentive to run and split the anti-Menendez vote, and could easily focus on governor in 2025.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

Why do you believe Sherrill is going to run? With Kim already in the race she has no incentive to run and split the anti-Menendez vote, and could easily focus on governor in 2025.

I don't think she'll run at this point, but in a world where Menendez resigns there is a chance that Sherill could be appointed. But anyway I just threw her name out as an example of the fact that Menendez's successor may be a rising Dem star, and that's part of a calculus for the GOP as to why they'd prefer Menendez to stay

I doubt Murphy will appoint Sherrill unless she actually was planning on running for that seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

1 v 1 vs Kim, who would have every Line and party support but maybe 2? Probably 0%. Reminder that Menendez had every Line and full support in 2018 vs a F-tier opponent, and only won by 62-38, losing areas where the machine is weakest. Without the party he's toast. Especially since it seems Kim cut some sort of deal for South Jersey machine support, so he'll be getting absurd margins from the region.

Though like I said, I would love to see a poll confirming the complete collapse. As some have speculated, if the collapse it total, then there is certainly room for North Jersey to put up their own candidate and not have any fear of Menendez winning.

I would expect Kim to have the Bergen machine locked up. I know that there is more to politics than identity, but Korean Americans are an incredibly powerful voting bloc in the county with a decent amount of influence and I'm sure there will be some excitement behind Kim being the first Korean-American Senator.

Between that and 100% having the South Jersey counties behind him, Kim is in a very good position, even this early.

The guy is impressive without machines behind him though. One of the most positive astonishments of the 2020 elections was him basically winning in a landslide when he was supposedly in one of the country's most competitive districts.

It was a very impressive win, especially given that Malinowski who was expected to cruise to a second term barely made it out alive, emboldening Kean to run again in 2022 and giving the commission the green light to make his district redder in order to shore up Gottheimer and Sherrill.

Anyway, Kim’s in a very good position if he sweeps the Norcross counties and all four counties he’s ever represented in congress.

Privately Kim hopes that Menendez runs again in hopes that it will scare away potential North Jersey candidates, and that if one of the two suburban house Democrats from the North runs it’s Gottheimer, as he’d get progressive protest votes in northern counties he wouldn’t vs. Sherrill.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1706378056741347530?s=61&t=J4ObZwLKKSzX8...

VoteVets looks to have endorsed Andy Kim. This seems to be a strong indicator that Sherrill isn’t running, given she is the only big name in NJ with a military background, and is fully on-board with a gubernatorial bid; and that Kim may be clearing the field.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1706378056741347530?s=61&t=J4ObZwLKKSzX8...

VoteVets looks to have endorsed Andy Kim. This seems to be a strong indicator that Sherrill isn’t running, given she is the only big name in NJ with a military background, and is fully on-board with a gubernatorial bid; and that Kim may be clearing the field.

Kim clearing the field is important if we want the best chance of not having to nominate Menendez again.

I really like Kim’s chances even if Menendez ends up not running, as it’s looking increasingly likely the main North Jersey candidate in that case will be Gottheimer rather than Sherrill. Kim will have a much easier time beating the former than the latter, because of protest votes by progressives in North Jersey that he’d struggle to get against Sherrill.

[Tekken_Guy]

Murphy wouldn’t be terrible, but I still prefer Kim by a mile.

How would you rate Murphy’s chances in a primary with Kim?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1707477765878870161

Others were talking about how Murphy should/would probably appoint a Latino if Menendez resigns. That's what this seems to be, a group recognizing the same situation and pushing a name who seemingly would (at least initially) be a good placeholder.

I don’t think Murphy would appoint Salas if his wife is planning on running, because that’d mean Tammy Murphy won’t be the first female senator in NJ anymore.

[Tekken_Guy]

Joe DiVincenzo has some warm words about a Tammy Murphy candidacy: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/divincenzo-signals-readiness-to-support-tammy-murphy-for-u-s-senate/

Seems increasingly likely she would be the preferred North Jersey candidate and thus the favorite.

Kim will win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Joe DiVincenzo has some warm words about a Tammy Murphy candidacy: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/divincenzo-signals-readiness-to-support-tammy-murphy-for-u-s-senate/

Seems increasingly likely she would be the preferred North Jersey candidate and thus the favorite.

Kim will win.

I hope so, but it would be unlikely if another candidate secured both Bergen and Essex, especially since he is guaranteed not to carry Hudson. Nobody has won a Democratic primary without either one since 1981. (And I believe the last person to win without carrying BOTH was Lautenberg, narrowly, the very next year.)

Kim has a good chance in Bergen thanks to the Korean population, and if Gottheimer gets in he’ll be favored to get Bergen and split the North Jersey vote pretty substantially.