OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

I still think Trump will most likely be the nominee. And even if it's not Trump, they're still going to carry Ohio. It's not winnable statewide for Democrats anymore at the presidential level.

Brown will probably run ahead of the Democratic nominee (which isn't guaranteed to be Biden either). He can survive a very narrow GOP win in Ohio but probably not another 8 point win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Matt Dolan is very likely in -

Matt Dolan, the Senate candidate who was the biggest surprise as he surged during the closing weeks of Ohio’s crowded and combustible Republican nomination race earlier this year, is taking concrete steps that could set him up for a second straight run for the Senate when Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s up for reelection in 2024.

Dolan, a state senator from the Cleveland area, was showered with support earlier this week during an event in Columbus where he was inducted into the Association of Ohio Commodores, an organization that assists the state in its advancement of economic growth and prosperity. The event attracts political leaders and activists from across Ohio. According to one attendee in the room, Dolan received sustained applause and was approached by numerous people pledging their support should he launch a 2024 Senate campaign.

Sources close to Dolan tell Fox News that while he’s not made a final decision on a bid, he’s taken steps in recent weeks to expand his pool of potential donor support and secure senior leadership for his campaign and leadership PAC, should he press ahead with a candidacy in the new year.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-republican-takes-steps-launch-senate-challenge-vulnerable-democrat-sherrod-brown-2024

If he gets the nomination, this would be basically Safe R imo.

Disagree. The Republican base hates Dolan, so he won't get the nomination, and if he did, base turnout would be depressed, meaning the race would be Tilt or Lean D.

Well Trump is also likely on the ballot.

No because he is no longer “likely” to win the primary given his polling collapse?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is the most that Joe Biden can lose Ohio by for Sherrod Brown to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is the most that Joe Biden can lose Ohio by for Sherrod Brown to win?

On a really good night with a good economy and a damaged GOP brand, Biden loses by 5 points as some WWC come home to his brand, and Brown wins by 1-2 points this time, but Brown loses by 7 points this time...

Brown should have been Obama's VP in 2008........he'd hold down IA/OH for Dems while picking a minority VP to attract GA/NC/TX in 2016...

Why did you have to add that last part? Are you saying that best-case scenario is impossible?

[Tekken_Guy]

BREAKING NEWS
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has officially filled Paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for Senate against Senator Sherrod Brown.

So, it looks like Senate Republicans have landed their first big Recruit for the 2024 Senate Elections.

https://twitter.com/POTUS41Bush/status/1636423718283952134

Very big Deal! LaRose is clearly the strongest Candidate Republicans can put forward.

That is a fake filing by a parody account.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump already is semi-endorsing Moreno lol. Vance is also close to him, and he's Max Miller's father-in-law. He's also a self-funder, I reckon he's gonna be the nominee.

What about LaRose?

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Moreno is a pretty weak candidate. But quite frankly, even a pretty weak candidate should be able to beat Brown this time. Trump is going to win Ohio by double digits, and Brown won't be able to get enough split tickets. A shame, too - he's a wonderful Senator, but if Ohio is going to throw him out for this clown, they don't deserve him.

I don’t think Trump will be able to clear double digits in OH outside a decisive win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Despite Obama winning Ohio by 3% in 2012 Brown only beat Josh Mandel by 6%. So assuming the GOP candidate in this race isn't like him (very likely) and Trump wins Ohio by 8+ again (probable), it's very tricky for Brown to win.

First of all, Trump isn't guaranteed to be the nominee. He's favored but there's still an opening for a candidate like DeSantis to pull off the upset.

Secondly, Trump (or any Republican) could theoretically win the race by more of a J.D. Vance margin than his 2016 and 2020 margins.

Finally, if Brown runs as much ahead of Biden as he did Cordray in 2018, he wins.

[Tekken_Guy]

Seems like it would be advisable for LaRose to run for Governor in 2026.

Not really. Husted’s clearly the heir apparent for that seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Frank LaRose is the most electable Candidate of all the Candidates running against Sherrod Brown. If he wins the Primary under whatever circumstances Sherrod Brown is DOA!

Well no, this would be Dolan, but I can definitely see LaRose or Dolan outrun Trump in places like Delaware County (where there were several Renacci/Biden voters).

Trump 2020 or Trump 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Brown and Tester have 50% or better Approvals

Heidi Heitkamp had 60% approvals at this point in 2018 and we all know how that ended. The question is if Brown and Tester will survive the negative barrage of attack ads, and all the available evidence suggests they won’t.

Umm…Trump won North Dakota by over 30 points. He only won Montana by 16 and Ohio by8. Not a fair comparison.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just a rumor for now, but could be something to watch: https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737

FWIW, I think Vivek would become the primary frontrunner if he ended his presidential bid and ran here instead.

What about Moreno?

[Tekken_Guy]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

Sherrod Brown was an incumbent and Tim Ryan was not, and 2022 was an R+3 year nationally. And Vance still ran 2 points behind Trump’s 2020 numbers. Ramaswany may be a worse candidate than even Vance.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

Honestly if that works then Rosendale and Mooney should rush to endorse Trump to stave off Sheehy and Justice endorsements.

[Tekken_Guy]

This race is giving me AZ-SEN 2022 vibes, with LaRose as Brnovich and Moreno as Masters.

[Tekken_Guy]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.

There are a large amount of voters who will vote for an issue, but it is not what makes their choice for a candidate. Nan Whaley ran for governor in Ohio with Abortion as her main issue and got smoked. Neither of these are gonna shift many votes.

Whaley was a challenger to a very popular incumbent. Brown is the incumbent meanwhile. So their circumstances are quite different.

[Tekken_Guy]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

[Tekken_Guy]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate

The consensus actually is that Tester is in big trouble.

[Tekken_Guy]

Really interesting how post-2024 good chance there are more gay R senators than gay D senators; may actually be the case right now.

What other gay senators are there?

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Moreno ultimately gets bailed out by Trump’s rally.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Moreno ultimately gets bailed out by Trump’s rally.

Could be too little to late though. Also, Moreno & the Trump folks are underestimating the Political Machinery former Senator Rob Portman & Governor DeWine have in the State and Dolan got both of them onboard. There is also no risk for DeWine going against Trump since he is termed out likely to be succeeded by his Lt. Governor Jon Husted.

Both, Portman & DeWine are massive institutions in the State.

Does Moreno still have a chance?

[Tekken_Guy]

Soooo…
https://twitter.com/dolan4ohio/status/1768813553664864304?s=46

Trump’s endorsement means more than the Mayor of East Palestine’s. Moreno is still the favorite.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dolan very clearly has momentum. I am seeing signs of Trump folks going they respect him and Moreno but voting Dolan because he can win.

The high profile Democratic intervention almost seems designed to backfire given how publicized it was

I still think Moreno will win though.

[Tekken_Guy]

On the one hand Moreno may have issues. On the other he ran for Senate last time, has been a major figure in the stage for a decade,  and more importantly these numbers reveal a very Trumpy Ohio. This isn't an Oz/McCormack nailbiter.

So while I think Dolan was a better candidate, I think there is evidence tonight that it won't matter, and Brown was likely doomed before this campaign began.

I don't just mean the GOP turnout. Biden is losing 13% to Philips, and that is 21% in a place like Trumbell.

In short, on these numbers I expect Ohio to trend red from 2020.

Trump is only getting 79% of the vote.