Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

Honestly I don’t see much correlation. Beshear and Trump can both win because KY-GOV is less nationalized than the presidential race will be. Cameron and Biden can both win because Kentucky is a red state but we are not a red country.

I do however think that the results of this year’s race will give us an idea who is favored in NC-GOV next year.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would still maintain that the “so goes KY-GOV so goes the presidency” will be true until it isn’t, and it’s more of a coincidence than a pattern. Beshear’s main obstacle (the partisan lean of his state) is quite different in nature from Biden’s (his popularity.) All four combinations of results (Beshear/Biden, Beshear/Trump, Cameron/Biden, Cameron/Trump) have at least a chance of happening.

And Cameron’s main obstacle is outside factors (Beshear’s popularity, the localized nature of gubernatorial elections) while Trump’s issues are largely self-inflicted.

And there are more than four combinations given the possibility that one of Trump or Biden lose the primary, drop out, or even die.

[Tekken_Guy]

I have seen more Cameron signs pop up in recent days/weeks and do expect this to be a close race, but I still give Beshear the edge.

How would you rate Cameron’s chances of pulling the upset?

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

[Tekken_Guy]

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

That’s the question, but I wonder just how soft a lot of the support for Beshear is.

A lot of it could be undecideds just coming home, rather than actual Beshear support shifting to Cameron.

[Tekken_Guy]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

It hasn’t really. Most people still expect Beshear to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

It hasn’t really. Most people still expect Beshear to win.

It seems to me that both here and on other websites, we are now discussing Cameron having momentum.

I think most expect the race will be close. Few expect it to actually go Cameron’s way.

[Tekken_Guy]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

I remember how around September or so the 2024 presidential race seemed to have strongly shifted in Trump’s direction according to the site.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

Then why would they suddenly be more accurate in 2023 than in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Beshear would like the election to be a referendum on him, but voters have a funny way of changing that narrative.

How exactly do voters change that narrative?

[Tekken_Guy]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

You’re saying that if Emerson never did that poll the race would look different?

[Tekken_Guy]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

That makes sense. I just personally don’t see anything pointing to Cameron winning next week, and I don’t think he’ll be able to just ride his state’s partisanship to victory so easily.

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

[Tekken_Guy]

I unironically think Beshear giving off alpha/daddy vibes while Cameron gives off opposite vibes has a lot more to do with the closeness of this race than any "Dobbs effect." It’s the only reason why I think Beshear can still pull it off, even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

There’s going to be a massive gender gap here..

Why would you bet on Cameron winning? The only thing he has going for him is Kentucky’s partisan lean and that alone probably isn’t going to be enough.

[Tekken_Guy]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting indicator. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

What would happen if Cameron wins by 5 or more?

[Tekken_Guy]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

[Tekken_Guy]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

Are we just gonna choose to ignore the Trump +9 now

Trump’s favorability rating is typically 15-20 points worse than how he’d perform in an election with Biden. Sounds about right.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone have the county benchmarks that Beshear needs to be hitting to win again? I was thinking of using 2019 since he barely one, but I feel like his coalition has shifted enough since then.

Maybe use the 2022 abortion referendum (shifted a few points to the right), or the median between the two.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will be interesting to see what moves Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman makes in the next few years since she is the most apparent successor to Beshear. KY Dems starting off a little better than LA Dems did when JBE was termed out and had no apparent successor.

Unlike Kentucky, where Beshear at least has Coleman by his side, JBE was the only Democrat in statewide office during his entire term there, as Lt. Govs are elected separately.

But if she doesn’t a 2027 gubernatorial bid, possibly a run for KY-06 one day?