2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Tekken_Guy]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Virginia using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

89/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
53/100 on the Compactness Index
55/100 on County Splitting
63/100 on the Minority Representation index
20/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election (the closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election out of the choices given).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Virginia: 6R to 5D

2017 Virginia Attorney General Election: 6R to 5D

2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election: 6D to 5R

2017 Virginia Lieutenant Governor Election: 6R to 5D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Virginia: 6D to 5R


While this map has five solidly Democratic seats, all of them are packs with the Democratic Party consistently being able to win each seat with over 60% of the vote. On top of this, there's a competitive seat in Southeastern Virginia that contains Virginia Beach.

All the other seats vote quite solidly Republican, but much closer than do the Democratic seats, and Tim Kaine got close (within 10%) in four of the Republican seats. It is plausible that one of these current Republican seats flips Democratic at some point during the decade.

There are two Black-opportunity districts in the Southeastern portion of the state, with the Norfolk seat being 45% African-American (and having a plurality) in terms of VAP and the Richmond seat being 36% African-American.

The Northwestern NoVA district is a failed attempt at making an Asian seat for Virginia, with 28% of the Voting-Age population of that seat being Asian Alone or in combination.


Opinions?

I assume Jill Vogel would run in that new Northern VA GOP seat. I think Winsome Sears is now in Winchester too, so she might run if she loses her LG bid.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c0ec3dc-d539-4dd9-91df-1fb614e4b396

With that map, Morgan Griffith and Bob Good would essentially swap dristricts. And Griffith will be in the same district as Cline. That teal seat around Winchester would be an open race here.

[Tekken_Guy]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.

Perhaps her best bet would be to carpetbag to new VA-10?  She would be the ideal Dem candidate to hold a seat like that in this environment.

Also, A lot of its rural areas make up the northern parts of VA-7. Otherwise she probably has to primary Don McEachin.

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem for Abigail Spanberger is that VA-02 and VA-03 were underpopulated and had to take in parts of VA-04. Thus forcing VA-04, which was fairly even, to pull out of Hampton Roads and grab more Dem precincts in the Richmond area.

[Tekken_Guy]

Amanda Chase was drawn into a biden district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1468701797913174018?t=THDKEfrVqEIn_XLt8_U1aQ&s=19

Didn't Biden win her current district narrowly?

[Tekken_Guy]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Interesting.  Dems should be happy that this VA-10 was not an absolute Youngkin blowout like current VA-07.

Also, new VA-04 is now out of the GA-02/NC-01 late-in-the-decade danger zone. 

It was never in that danger zone as long as it had Richmond in it.