California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[brucejoel99]

👀

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

[brucejoel99]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936

At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

No? If anything this works again Lee. Weber, for instance, had said she doesn’t want a seat with a time limit on it. This could entice some of Lee’s supporters to break ranks and accept an appointment. Before there was no reason for someone to leave their current position and burn their political bridges. Now, you could have, say Bass or Cohen, be appointed and Lee’s supporters would be put in a bind of how to approach this new wrench in the system.

As I said before, a limited appointment, not appointing a candidate, and appointing a black woman was a paradox of Newsom’s own making. He had to break one of his promises, and he chose the smartest one.

Weber's one of the potential picks who fielded concerns to Newsom that he should pick Lee per WaPo, & Bass is fully behind Lee, as is Cohen. I honestly think - as DT speculates - that no Black woman public official he offered the appointment to was willing to go against Lee & take it. Now, with the CBC very explicitly behind her too, incl. one Jim Clyburn, & Gavin clearly having his eyes set on '28...

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1708616421696004102https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1708622406472888568

[brucejoel99]

lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1708625448798683611

[brucejoel99]

on-the-record confirmation from Newsomworld:

https://twitter.com/boreskes/status/1708656564192846022

[brucejoel99]

no one is entitled to a seat. Again, this whole thing would push me to Porter. I won't be disappointed if Lee ends up winning a full term, but this whole episode puts a bad taste in my mouth.

Conversely:

https://twitter.com/AidanKohnMurphy/status/1708664958894919787

I’ll expand on the point I made earlier about Newsom’s future after this

Two important parts of being president is only making promises you can keep, and being able to balance the various interests groups when it comes time to fill your cabinet and the federal government. The latter point is especially important in garnering support for a presidential run. Newsom has shown incompetence in both regards by fencing himself into numerous conflicting promises, which put him in a position to piss off just about every demographic in the state. He appoints Lee, the Schiff and the Pelosi establishment crowd are fuming. Don’t appoint Lee and he pisses off every black politician in the state. And as far as either group is concerned he’s promised to do what they want, but it’s impossible to do both. It makes him untrustworthy and hypocritical.

If he can’t handle this I can’t imagine many groups will feel comfortable supporting him in a run for president. His presidential ambitions are on life support.

And, importantly for his presidential ambitions, Jim Clyburn too.

[brucejoel99]

This, by the way, should be a reminder of how quickly Twitter can spiral its reactions to something minor. The statements were never a clear indication of anything until posters (both for and against Lee) decided it meant Lee was being appointed and started to form takes around this supposition.

Newsom's comms director did approvingly quote tweet a Cori Bush thread calling for a Lee appointment, that was pretty bait-&-switchy

[brucejoel99]

This, by the way, should be a reminder of how quickly Twitter can spiral its reactions to something minor. The statements were never a clear indication of anything until posters (both for and against Lee) decided it meant Lee was being appointed and started to form takes around this supposition.

Newsom's comms director did approvingly retweet a Cori Bush thread calling for a Lee appointment, that was pretty bait-&-switchy

He retweeted a later post in a thread that didn’t include a mention of Lee herself.

But in any case, this should reinforce for everyone: tweets aren’t news. Trying to read the tea leaves on the Site Formerly Known as Twitter and jumping to conclusions will get you burned sooner or later.

Still, retweeting Cori Bush - who'd also posted a viral graphic that said appoint Barbara Lee - is sort-of a bait-&-switch

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/snazzeo/status/1708686471421464962

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ReshadHudson/status/1708881648786329734https://twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/1708954826259009746

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ReshadHudson/status/1708881648786329734
https://twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/1708954826259009746

https://twitter.com/coribush/status/1709213995817681204https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1709291604215767130

[brucejoel99]

https://rollcall.com/2023/10/08/lee-porter-schiff-face-off-in-california-senate-forum/

All of the candidates support legislation that would raise the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 hourly rate to $17 by 2028.

But is that high enough, especially in a high-cost state such as California? All three candidates said no.

Schiff said his father earned $18,000 a year as a traveling salesman and that was enough for the family to afford a home. “I want people to be able to afford good, safe housing, and we’re not going to get it at a minimum wage,” he said. “What we need is really a livable wage that will vary from place to place. So states should have flexibility but there ought to be a minimum and for health care workers, I support more than $25.”

Lee said $20 per hour should be the floor. Anything less is “unacceptable anywhere in the United States, especially in California.” Later, when pressed to provide a specific number, Lee said the minimum wage should be $50 per hour.

Porter noted that corporate profits have ballooned in recent years. “We have a Washington that is consistently putting the interests of big corporations ahead of the interests of workers and families,” she said. Porter said she backs a $20 per hour federal minimum wage, and $25 in California, and would tie future rate increases to inflation.

[brucejoel99]

Another interview with Laphonza Butler where she's hinting at a run

https://archive.ph/UizlG

Emma Hinchliffe: So, is this a temporary job for you?
Laphonza Butler: It is our early job for me. It is day six. I literally went through orientation, which is usually three days in like four hours. And so, I will say it’s an early job for me. But my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.

Commitment to a life dedicated to service doesn't sound like she's just going to stand down from the Senate.

The CADEM Endorsing Convention is in 5 weeks. There's just no chance Senator Butler gets the infrastructure for a successful campaign built up. She has (appointed) incumbency, but Porter has a war chest, Lee has loads of endorsements, & Schiff has both.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1713704954941120690

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1714567833969893465

Pascucci outlined a run as a moderate consensus builder in a field of bomb-throwing partisans. The 38-year-old Democrat described herself as a "truth-seeker" who would focus on legislating, adding she would apply the same approach she did to newsgathering.

"I've been covering the most pressing issues of California for the past 15 years and watching this race closely, as well as covering it and interviewing some of the candidates," Pascucci said in the interview Tuesday. "And the more I watched it, the more closely I studied it, I honestly felt dismayed by how it was shaping up. I spoke to a lot of others who felt the same way. Like, this is our future — more of the same."

Pascucci and her team also said she would work to appeal to Latinos and other voters who haven't been swayed by a trio of far better-known Democrats in the race, Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Schiff and Porter have been atop the field in fundraising and polling for months, trading leads that have hovered in the high teens, but not breaking away.

[brucejoel99]

BREAKING: Laphonza Butler NOT Running

As expected. Too far behind and too short a time to catch up. Gov in 2026 on the other hand.....

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https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1715107490256576797

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1730637737101873623

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1734349154309333316

[brucejoel99]

joever

https://twitter.com/UFWupdates/status/1742610934135406688

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/SydneyKashiwagi/status/1746581972028211443

[brucejoel99]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

He was running for CA-47 on an explicit pledge to serve only 1 term so that Porter can re-run for her House seat in 2026 in the event that she doesn't win this year's Senate seat, but don't worry, he dropped out earlier this month... to run for a separate state altogether's Senate seat:

Surprised nobody mentioned Mike Schaefer. He was a San Diego City Councilor and then he ran for 33 offices and won the California State Board of Equalization in a upset in 2018.

With Schaefer, his residence where he ran went as follows: San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Diego, CA -> Baltimore, MD -> San Diego, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Francisco, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Arizona -> Las Vegas, NV -> Baltimore, MD -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> Palm Springs, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA.

Holy s**t.

And his residence may be changing again?? Looks like Schaefer has filed to run for U.S. Senate in Nevada… this is especially odd, because he’s a current officeholder in CA. Can he hold office in CA if he lives/is running for office in Nevada?

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1755246598374740351

Also ran for Mayor of Palm Springs in 2015 on a platform of kicking out homeless camps & building a White Castle there before immediately pivoting to an attempt to be the D to take Cresent Hardy on in NV-04 2016. What a guy:

During the 1960 presidential election, he supported U.S. Senator John F. Kennedy and later served as a staff assistant for state Senator Thomas Kuche. He also worked as an analyst for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

In 1965, Schaefer was elected to the San Diego City Council and served until 1971. In 1968, he received the Republican nomination in California's 37th House district, but was defeated by incumbent Representative Lionel Van Deerlin. In 1970, he was arrested for bribery and conspiracies charges in the 1970 Yellow Cab bribery scandal, but was later acquitted after an eleven-hour deliberation by a jury on January 21, 1971. Later that year, he ran for mayor in the open primary, but received less than one percent of the vote. In 1974, he ran for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State in Nevada, but was defeated by Stanley W. Paher.

Schaefer has owned properties in multiple states. In the 1980s, he was successfully sued by his tenants in Los Angeles for the low quality of his housing; in 1986, jurors awarded them a judgment of $1.83 million, which he preemptively sought to flee by moving to Maryland the year prior, where he purchased the Schaefer Hotel in downtown Baltimore for $450,000 and befriended William Donald Schaefer, of no relation, then serving as the mayor of Baltimore and later as Governor of Maryland. Mike Schaefer believed that sharing a last name with William would help him politically: in 1986, he ran for the Republican nomination for Maryland's Senate election, but was defeated by Linda Chavez; following William Schaefer's death in 2011, Mike filed a $28,000 claim to William's estate.

From the 1990s to the 2010s, he ran for local offices in Los Angeles and San Francisco, Secretary of State of California, state legislative seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Maryland, and mayor in Baltimore and Palm Springs. In 1993, he was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse and was later disbarred by the Nevada Supreme Court in 2001. In 2013, comedian Brad Garrett filed a restraining order against Schaefer, stating in his application: "As a celebrity, I am very concerned about stalkers who seek notoriety by associating themselves with me." Under the order, Schaefer is also banned from the MGM Grand Las Vegas. In 2014, he was removed from the Nevada state controller primary in a decision ultimately upheld by the Nevada Supreme Court, as he had failed to meet the residency requirements. In 2015, he was ordered to pay $328 to his live-in landlord.

In 2018, he initially sought to run for California's 54th State Assembly district, but later dropped out as he would rather remain in San Diego and ran in the Board of Equalization's 4th district. He ran as a member of the Democratic Party and placed second in the top-two primary behind state senator Joel Anderson. On November 6, 2018, Schaefer unexpectedly narrowly defeated Anderson, who had spent over $300,000 to Schaefer's $25,000. This was attributed to the Democratic wave and Anderson being reprimanded for his comments to a female lobbyist.

In 2023, Schaefer was briefly a Democratic candidate for California's 47th congressional district in the following year's election, after initially misfiling for office in the 45th district, but in February 2024, he filed to switch to the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada.

[brucejoel99]

Did Porter and Lee concede already or congretulate Schiff? I couldn't find anything.

Not sure if they did publicly (which is weird) but Schiff confirmed in one of his interviews last week that they did reach out to him privately

Lee did publicly on Election Night (but only to Schiff, not to Garvey), Porter hasn't afaik.