UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1581641970203906048

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581768645239529472

I don't think this is what that guy at the SNP conference wanted to mean when saying "Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair."

[brucejoel99]

When Truss goes there will surely have to be a general election called won't there?

Depends on whether or not it's a general election or a general strike.

[brucejoel99]

Well, this is intriguing:

https://twitter.com/jamesgooderson/status/1581877024653684736
Hunt will be delivering the statement in the Commons.

[brucejoel99]

To feel a need to do this on such short notice must mean that they're scared sh*tless of the opening of the markets:

https://twitter.com/georgewparker/status/1581885158365753344

[brucejoel99]

Save that for an hour-&-a-1/2 from now:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1581934240085995520

[brucejoel99]

40+% Labour lead incoming?

How would that look in a seat projection??

[brucejoel99]

Hoyle just called Mordaunt Prime Minister 💀

[brucejoel99]

Hearing from the PM within the next 24 hours is rather interesting since neither today nor tomorrow is Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1582028737536610308

Ok - there's something weird happening. Truss left Downing Street 30 minutes ago, and it's been confirmed that she's been in the Palace of Westminster, but hasn't been seen since. Mordaunt has suggested that something regrettable has happened, and that she asked to disclose the reason, but was denied.

Mordaunt has also said Truss may not come to the Commons at all today, pitching up tomorrow instead. Several times, Mordaunt has said that she "hopes" Truss will be in the Commons later, but can't guarantee it.

When asked if Truss had gone to the Palace, she deflected, rather than denying it. I doubt that's the reason (Charles is in Aberdeen today), but Mordaunt is being cagey in the way that only drives speculation.

Weirder still is that the "genuine reason" excuse didn't even pop up 'til halfway through the statement…

[brucejoel99]

Liz Truss blinks less than once a second challenge [IMPOSSIBLE]

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1582038729694191616

https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1582041020984102913

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1582073092494741505

[brucejoel99]

Truss interviewed as part of BBC News at 10. We have a public apology for the mistakes of the mini-budget, and a commitment to lead the Conservatives into the next election.

A commitment worth about as much as Kwasi Kwarteng's commitment to absolutely not going anywhere, one imagines.

[brucejoel99]

Let's see: she met with Brady, she deputized somebody reported to actively be on leadership maneuvers to answer her Urgent Question from the LotO that she was dodging in order to meet with Brady, she returned from her meeting with Brady unable to move or stop anxiously blinking during "her" Chancellor's fiscal statement announcing a U-turn on pretty much her entire program for government, she's now lost the support of Murdoch & the Mail…

Does she make it to PMQs?

[brucejoel99]

Mad this thread has 56 pages already. British politics needs a break.

Yeah I'd appreciate it if Liz hangs around as a zombie PM for a while, the idea of having another leadership election sounds exhausting. Or I guess the best option would be if the Tories somehow pull off a coronation of someone boring and uncontroversial.

"No sneaky parliamentary maneuvers here; just the democratic membership's buyer's remorse"?

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1582114531089608704

[brucejoel99]

YouGov polling of Tory members for the Times finds 55% want Truss to resign. Other headline results from the poll:

• Sunak would beat Truss 55%-25% in a rerun of the ballot.
• Johnson (somehow) leads the list of preferred replacement PMs with 32%, ahead of Rishi Sunak with 22%, Wallace on 10%, Mordaunt on 9% and Badenoch on 8%.
• 60% of members want a unity candidate to emerge.
• 50% of members think the membership should be excluded from the next leadership election.

Yeah, they look like a useful collection of people

The line I used to hear people band around was - "Labour fall in love, Tories fall in line."

That's been flipped in the leadership races conducted during this parliamentary term (Starmer is the most rational candidate Labour have chosen since Blair, and Truss is the most heart-over-head candidate the Tories have picked since IDS).

But it now looks like the Tory faithful might be falling in line, scared by the existential threat implied by this month's polling. The same cannot, however, be said for the party's MPs who seem to be unable to find a consensus candidate.

Whether it's Labour electing Keith to succeed Corbyn, or half of the Tories immediately realizing that they f**ked up by picking Truss over Rish!, both sides' memberships have been forced to engage in some very unorthodox humbling.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1582346744008159232

[brucejoel99]

Incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582324631129665538
Very unbased:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582334327085355010

[brucejoel99]

Incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582324631129665538

Very unbased:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1582334327085355010

It seems to me that Mordaunt is the obvious choice. She's the candidate with the highest MP support who didn't lose a membership vote to Truss, and while she has her detractors in the party, she's not as strongly associated with a specific faction of the party as any other big name. It would also neutralize the (admittedly hard to take seriously) "you're only knifing her because she's a woman!" line by Truss dead-enders.

Right, but Ruislip's hopeful Churchill being forced to watch the reinstallation of the very PM he knifed to seize power would just be the chef's kiss of modern British politics' meme outcomes, hence the aforementioned basedness

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1582430237911969793

[brucejoel99]

FWIW:

https://twitter.com/stevenjnorris/status/1582422519809998849

[brucejoel99]

Opposition Day in the Commons tomorrow - so Labour have some control over the order paper.

Ed Miliband is fronting a motion to ban fracking in the UK. Opposition motions aren't binding, so this wouldn't automatically kill government policy, but if enough Tories defy the whip (which will either be to abstain or reject the motion), it will reinforce the repeated threats of Tory backbenchers that they'll vote with Labour to prevent new fracking projects.

Nothing earth shattering (*witty fracking earthquake joke*), just the opportunity for a little chaos with Ed.

[brucejoel99]

Some Scotland-specific polling tonight:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1582514224995045377
If this is close to accurate, Labour is on track for their best result here since 2010, with at least 16 seats, based on universal swing, and not taking tactical voting (which will likely inflate that total) into account:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfY5GVoXEAImr87?format=jpg&name=4096x4096[

[brucejoel99]

Only the Member for Maidenhead can save the party now.

Bringing up her constituency has reminded me that May's so personally popular there that she's the likely Elsie Wayne to Rishi Sunak's Jean Charest.

[brucejoel99]

Surely by now Charles would reach out and suggest she resigns?