French presidential election, 2022

[brucejoel99]

I recall that in the aftermath of the 2nd round in 2017, it was leaked out that then-PM Cazeneuve would literally have not stepped down in favor of Le Pen's preferred PM, NDA, had Le Pen won, & the make-up of Parliament at that time would've enabled him to remain in office through the legislative elections in June, so if it actually happens this time around but Le Pen doesn't win a parliamentary majority, then doesn't her entire term end up being one of her in office, but not in power?

[brucejoel99]

  As President, wouldn't Le Pen have the power to have referenda held on various issues, regardless of what an unfriendly national assembly would like?

No, a referendum needs President + PM or President + both chambers.

Without a friendly PM/Cabinet/Parliament by her side, wouldn't the powers that lie wholly within her prerogative (i.e., at her whim & hers alone) basically be limited to just dissolving/calling snap Assembly elections, referring laws & treaties to the Constitutional Council, appointing 3 of its 9 members if any presidential vacancies arise during her term, & selecting its President, with everything else - even treaties & military policy - dependent upon the PM's countersignature? I mean, hell, even her legislative "vetoes," such as they are (recommending "reconsideration" of a bill), would be very easily overridden.

On the other hand, Article 16's existence looks more & more problematic the closer & closer that Le Pen gets to the Élysée.

[brucejoel99]

My 1st round prediction:
Emmanuel Macron (LREM): 26.3%
Marine Le Pen (RN): 22.2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI): 17.7%
Eric Zemmour (R!): 9.3% (slight overperformance, as alluded to by Al)
Valérie Pécresse (LR): 7.3% (slight underperformance, as alluded to by Al)
Yannick Jadot (EELV): 5.3% (may Antonio's vote help EELV remain viable for a long, long time to come)

My wayyy-too-early 2nd round prediction:
Macron (LREM): 55.6% (like in 2017, I presume that Panzergirl panic following the 1st round will lead to voters who would've otherwise abstained from the 2nd round voting for Macron, albeit at not nearly as high a rate as 5 years ago)
Le Pen (RN): 44.4%

[brucejoel99]

Man, I can't wait 'til the exit polls hit & we realize that it was a Jeb! landslide all along!

[brucejoel99]

What are some good websites for the election?

I've just been following the NYT live feed, but I'm sure others can recommend others.

[brucejoel99]

EXIT POLL: Macron & Le Pen tied at 24%, according to the Belgian press, with Mélenchon at 19%.

https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513180132055392256

[brucejoel99]

At least the nightmare scenario - Le Pen vs. Mélenchon - is looking much unlikelier now. Hopefully the 2017 rematch can also see a not-insignificant repeat of the anti-fascist consolidation behind Macron in the 2nd round. Still, though, it's really rather concerning for the future of French politics that, with the exception of Macron, its center has just entirely collapsed. Should he win a 2nd term, he should take some time to further consider his domestic policy's impacts upon French politics.

[brucejoel99]

Thank god.

[brucejoel99]

Left - 30,7%
Far right - 32,8% (w/ Dupont-aignan)
Centre-right - 33,1%

The left vote is actually slightly better than 2017. Lots of tactical voting. Gutted for cuddly Philippe 😢

So the 2nd round will essentially be decided by the "Left," such as it is. The obvious question for all of us now: will they - presumably, disproportionately Mélenchon, as opposed to Jadot & Hidalgo voters - bite their tongue & vote for Macron despite their hatred for him?

[brucejoel99]

Mélenchon speaking now.

[brucejoel99]

Mélenchon speaking now.

Mélenchon is insane. He starts off by saying that "the system causes you to pick from the lesser of two evils. Each of you has to consult your conscience as you make this choice," but then warns his supporters against "giving in to their anger," which can at least start to be construed as "don't vote for Le Pen in a fit of populist rage," & tops it all off by explicitly shouting "Madame Le Pen should not get a single vote!" not once, not twice, not thrice, but 4 times. For a man so clearly willing (if this one crazy speech means anything) to say literally anything, he'd really rather die than say "vote for Macron."

In any event, denouncing her so forcefully seals it for Macron, IMO. Short of that explicit endorsement that'll never happen, this is the best breathing room that Macron could've possibly asked for right now, given the understanding that it'll still be close.

[brucejoel99]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commanding their voters.

*commending?

[brucejoel99]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Lmao what? If it weren't for Mélenchon's ego, then he'd be able to see clear as day that their combined >6% of the vote alone - >8% when factoring in the Communists, who were literally a part of Mélenchon's bloc last time - outweighing the <1% that could ultimately separate him from the 2nd round means that they'd actually have a sh*tton of leverage if it weren't for the fact that he can't even see/care about that leverage because he's, again, too busy focusing on his own ego to look out for his own political self-interest.

[brucejoel99]

Is there anything about Le Penn or the FN that's explicitly anti-Paris ?, why were her results so poor in the city proper ?

Her poor results there were expected: she does better in rural areas & with the working-class, while Zemmour appeals to a "bourgeois bigot," if you will, that's more common in urban areas.

[brucejoel99]

Will Melenchon make an endorsement?

Mélenchon begging his voters not to vote for Le Pen is as close to an endorsement of Macron as he'll ever willingly give.

[brucejoel99]

I am saying it right now: If Le Pen wins, I'll never eat snails for 1 solid lifetime. (I will also do this if Macron wins because it's weird as f**k & REALLY makes me question the judgement of the French people in general.)