Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

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Here's an update since my last one.

Total of 246,531 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.227M ballots requested so far (1.195M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way they did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 147,002
GOP - 99,529

Early In Person voting starts tomorrow!

Have more ballots been requested in the runoff- or is 1.195 supposed to be 1.95M?

(assuming it has to be 1.95M if 1.32M were accepted... if so, I didn't realize close to 1/3rd of requested ballots were not returned- thats much larger than I would have thought)?

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I get that in general this forum doesn't like Crenshaw, but regardless of whether you like him or not, the add is good in the sense it is engaging to those voters who need to be engaged and turn out for the GOP.

Let's hope not- the people who would be engaged by it are the type that wouldn't get that it's a parody! ...but in so much as they are the target- you're probably correct (although I thought the British voice was a bit odd- Are his orders coming from MI5?)

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Most of these Counties (Ossoff's Planned stops) have a high % of minorities.  I actually think Ossoff & Warnock can have more impact visiting the South Georgia counties & especially the rural counties.  Most of these rural counties have a significant amount of Dems who are probably less motivated to turn out for the runoff- But if the Dem Senate candidates came to their rural counties a time or two, it could likely make a big difference in ginning up enough excitement to have a real impact on turning out low-propensity-runoff Dems. (and Trump has shown that when you add all of the rural counties together- their small populations can have a big impact).

I hope Warnock will also be doing some south Georgia Swings.

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Here's todays update. Not sure what's going on with the VBM requests. # went down from 1.6m to 1.2m, not sure if that was a mistake now or a mistake fixed on McDonald's part


VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/15: 1.42M (52.2% white, 32.6% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/16: 1.61M (52.3% white, 32.7% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white

I wonder if they accidentally reported the ballots actually requested (vs the total ballots send out... which is ballots actually request (plus) the 325,000 that were automatically sent out for the runoff).
If you add 325,000 to 1.28M, the total comes to 1.7M (which would seem to likely be a correct number- just a slight increase from 12/16, now that Early In Person has started & we are approaching the number requested in the general election).

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We're definitely seeing a very close race, but I wouldn't say the data is there (publicly or privately) to classify anybody as having an advantage.

Do you (personally) predict that the same party will win both seats (ie the unknown turnout factors will  break to one party... enough to outweight any split ticket voting)?

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If a couple of the recent polls are correct (which show a slight uptick for Republicans... leading by 2-3pts), based on cross tabs- Dems really need strong turnout among the under-35 voters (a group in which Dems have a bigger lead than they did in the General).

The specific poll I'm referring to is the Emerson Poll, I think.  Although I'm not sure the breakdowns for support levels with each age group are correct- they just seem a bit off. Basically, Dems have a Huge lead with under 35 (something like 75%), & Repubs lead each remaining age group by varying margins.

I think Youth vote will definitely turn out at higher levels than past runoffs- but I worry about students at Schools like UGA (38,000 students), which had on campus voting during the General...but most students will not return after Thanksgiving- so all of those students will need to find their polling place for the runoff, etc (which means there will likely be a dropoff of UGA students voting.

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Are they doing Souls to the Polls in any areas?  The Sundays (& maybe Wednesdays) around Christmas are probably among the highest church attendance days.

Something like this could make a huge difference- because I think Dems will need black voters & young voters to make up a higher % of total voters to win the runoff (I think the Dem senate candidates will see a drop in suburban republican-Biden voters).  Soul to the Polls could help with black voters- not sure what the best GOTV event would be for young voters?

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Its worth noting that poll is older than the Emerson poll.

I don't trust any polls too much in the runoff b/c the big unknown is the turnout model.

But the RMG Poll was 8th-14th & Emerson was 14th-16th.  RMG has Ossoff & Warnock leading by 1&2 pts ... Emerson has Ossoff & Warnock losing by 3 pts.  I'm guessing there wasn't that big of a shift between those 2 back to back polling periods. The difference is prob found in the variation of turnout models used.

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Polling Question- Based on GA Dec Poll results:

Do polls taken on weekends tend to favor Dems more than polls during the week? (or on the flip side, do polls during the week tend to favor Republicans more than weekend polls?)

I've noticed that the 2 December polls that have both Ossoff & Warnock leading (Survey USA & RMG) both include weekend days ... where as the 3 that have both Ossof & Warnock losing (Insider Adv, Emerson, Trafalgar) were all taken exclusively during the week (Mon-Thur).

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Survey USA Poll (Dec 16-20)

Ossoff: +5  (gain +3 from their previous poll)
Warnock: +7 (same as their previous poll)

**NOTE of Caution: The polls like Trafalgar show the opposite (Loeffler & Perdue strengthen their lead in the several weeks between the company's 2 polls).  


Obviously, the Survey USA poll probably skews left in the same way several others skew right, but some interesting data points they found:

Republican Headwinds: "Very Conservative Voters"
Of those who identify as "very conservative," 55% say they are not voting in the runoff elections because "the voting process is rigged."  Another 7% of "very conservative" voters say they are "intentionally boycotting" the runoffs.

Democrat Headwind:
newly announced Runoff Eve 01/04/2021 campaign rally by President Donald J. Trump


Early Voters who've already voted
among those voters who have already returned a runoff ballot (Poll was Dec 16-20)...  Ossoff leads Perdue by 27 points, Warnock leads Loeffler by 25 points.


Ossoff/Perdue: Shifts since last poll
3 weeks ago, Perdue led by 43 points among white voters. But today, Ossoff closes to within 36.

Warnock/Loeffler: Shifts since last poll
Loeffler's red-hot rhetoric has succeeded in alienating both independents and moderates (but attracts "very conservatives").
3 weeks ago, Warnock led Loeffler by 3 points among GA independents; today Warnock leads by 18.
3 weeks ago, Warnock led Loeffler by 29 points among GA moderates; today, he leads her by 51 points.
3 weeks ago, Loeffler led by 64 points among GA "very conservative" voters; today, she leads by 76 points.
3 weeks ago, "very conservative" voters were 17% of the runoff electorate; today, they are 21% of the electorate.

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AJC/UGA and Atlas Intel both have polls forthcoming in this race (when exactly I dunno).

I get the impression that most people don’t care about polls any longer in these races because they don’t think they can tell us anything we don’t already know (that it’s gonna be very close).

Although I agree that polls are problematic due to the turnout model being the big unknown- I do think there is potentially valuable info that can be gleaned from polls that provide in-depth crosstabs. 

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https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376

Surely nobody would really believe this and boycott the election as a result?  But even if it's a small number, it might make the difference.

The latest survey USA poll found that 7% of those who identified as "very conservative"... were boycotting the runoff.  Granted this probably only comes out to 1-2% of the total voting pool- but in a close election, could make the difference.

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VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white

.....

12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white

I think that Ossoff & Warnock have a greater than 50% chance of winning  (and Warnock will receive more votes than Ossoff)- But there are a few things in EV numbers that do worry me:

Age of early voters so far
Runoff EV over 56-years-old: 57% (General election EV: 46%)
Runoff EV under 34-years-old: 15% (General election EV: 21%)

I think Dems really need strong turnout from those under 34... which isn't happening yet.  Hopefully a lot of young ppl are going to vote & mail in ballots in the next 2 days (last minute)... but these stats are the most troubling for Dems imo.

Potential overestimating the Dem advantage based on white/black %
Although the Black % of EV has increased, and the "White-Black %" has decreased compared to the general election- I think this is potentially not as much of an advantage for Dems as it may seem.  Mainly b/c the Percentage of White voters has stayed about the same.  So if you look at all non-white voters... the number is basically the same as the General Election EV.  

Also- I assume a large % of "other race" voters tend to be young voters who are biracial/mixed-race... so if the under 34 voting % in down, that could partially explain why the Black vote is up, "other" voter is down, and white voter is the same.  But considering most non-white voters support Dems and majority of white voters support Republicans... the fact that white EV has remained the same as the general election, would seem to indicate that Dems may not have gained much of a real advantage regarding white/non-white EV%.

But... Potential fools gold in numbers for Repubs also (I hope)
So, while I worry the EV stats that look good for Dems may be misleading- I still think Dems eek out a win, because I hope there is a bit of fools gold for Republicans also....
In that I hope (and think) there is a higher % of Dem white voters in the overall 55% of white voters- compared to the General Election (due to some white Republicans boycotting or sitting out the runoff).

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Yeah, I do think that the age gap if something to be concerned about as a Democrat, especially in a place like GA where younger people are significantly more likely to vote D than older people.

As for your point about the strong black numbers being a mirage, while that could be true and I get what you're saying, It does seem like black voters as an isolated group have strong turnout, even if other minority groups do not. There is a larger gap between majority black counties in the "black belt" and surrounding majority white counties in terms of % that have voted than there was in the GE. This could mean either that black voters really are having disproportionate turnout in these runoffs relative to white voters, or that the election day vote will be more white than it was in November (or something in between ofc). We saw that in the GE a few of these counties e-day vote was to the left of how the county overall, so I suspect that may flip.

However, even if you take the racial lens out of it, and calculate things based upon how they broke in the GE, it's really hard to find a way to get Democrats current vote lead under 8%. The real concern for me is that the e-day vote has potential to be even more lopsided towards the GOP as it was in the GE because more Democratic voters are voting early.

I'll second your point about the white vote, at least thus far, the white vote has skews from counties where the white vote likely voted to the left of the white vote statewide

(as you stated above) I do agree that black turnout is higher, but other minority groups have lower turnout in the runoff currently, which just means the white/black net advantage for Dems may be a little less than it seems.  But, there are also a few seemingly strong points for Republicans, that may be less of an advantage than they seem also.  So, I think your analysis that Dems are currently sitting on at least an 8% lead going into Election Day seems accurate.

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Regarding the under 34-year-old vote: Do you think the drop from 21% (general election) to 15% (runoff) is due largely to Trump-under-34-year-olds not participating... or do you think the under 34 dropoff is across the board?

...because I can't imagine that with $100 Million+ & access to all of these voters via social media... Ossoff hasn't been able to create enough of a buzz to get those who voted in the General for Biden... to turn out to vote in the runoff (unless under-34's tend to vote on election day).  Are there any stats that indicate when under 34 year old tend to vote (early vs election day)?

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Isn't it quite possible that the 55+ over is up compared to GE b/c there's also more older black voters voting right now? Could be attributed to the higher black %?

I see what people are saying about the White % being about the same and blacks being up, but wouldn't Dems want the black % to be up anyway, since they voted 9/10 for Biden? I feel like they'd be okay if Whites stayed the same % but Blacks went up quite a bit, since it's more likely assured votes for Biden.

Not to mention, we're at 2.1M compared to 4M, and we don't know what slice of the white vote this is, but it does appear it's coming from more leftward areas than rightward (i.e. more college+ whites)

both are good point- and its true that black voters support dems by a higher % than other minorities like Latino voters, which tended to be more split in November.

Any thoughts regarding why under 34 is so much lower? (do they vote more on election day, is the drop off mainly Repubs under 34, are they just hard to get to turn out, etc)

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At this point I'm conviced that Trump is now actively trying hurt Mitch McConnell
there is simply no other way to explain why he is doing things that he knows could clearly hurt his party chances in the upcoming election



He just tweeted this at the same time Bernie Sanders said he will filibuster an override of a veto on the defense bill unless the Senate holds a vote on providing $2,000 direct payments to Americans.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343916418316824583

Trump is now going out of his way to tell his voters that the 600 dollars check is simply not enough and If Sanders can sideline Perdue and Loeffler even for a couple of days and especially if he can tie them to Republican's opposition to more relief aid  he could conceivably tip the election enough to give Chuck Schumer control of the Senate next week.

If the Dems ends up winning in GA Trumps actions of the past few days will be a big reason for why it happened

Yeah he’s totally just trying to screw McConnell over on his way out the door imo.

I've been wondering if Trump (maybe even sort of subconsciously) doesn't want to be the only Republican to not win Georgia... If both Senators lose, his loss doesn't look quite as bad.

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What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

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What incentive is there for Trump to hurt Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party? Like seriously what incentive or advantage? He’s actively campaigning for Perdue and Loeffler yet wants to hurt Mitch and the senate GOP?
I’m trying to put the puzzle together but I don’t get it

My attempt at a guess:
1) He doesn't want to be the only one to lose Georgia & look like the only failure on the GA campaign trail (misery loves company).
2) But he will never pass up an opportunity to get in front of a rally of Trump fans.

Not sure why else he's supporting the $2000, unless he forgetting that Biden supporters will also get the money (since usually he is intent on punishing those who did not vote for him).  Although, this could indicate a calculation to look better to the public... either b/c he intends to run in 2024, or b/c it will benefit his plans for a media network or show after the election.

Or maybe he just has no clue what he's doing.

I also wonder if Trump's $2000 push is a reaction to seeing Bernie & Hawley getting so much attention for supporting $1200 stimulus (Not wanting Bernie to take some of his supporters... or not wanting Hawley gaining too much popularity and be seen as a front-runner for 2024, in case Trump plans on running again.

And on the flip side- I've wondered if Hawley is positioning himself to be at the top of Trump's running mate list, if Trump indeed decides to run in 2024.  Because I doubt Trump would choose Pence as running mate (and in fact I don't think he wanted him on the ticket this election, and I'm sure says in private that he would have won if he had picked a different running mate... not that this is true).  This would be Hawley's best chance to get to higher office in 2024- because he has to think that he & Nikki Haley would likely split the Republican Primary vote enough, to likely launch someone more on the far right into the nomination.  And even if Trump lost in 2024, it would set Hawley up to be the nominee in 2028 without much competition.

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Trump's not gonna run in 2024.  He's more likely to be in prison than running for election.  He's simply grifting at this point.

Look at Trump's doppelganger in Italy... former Prime Minister Berlusconi was elected to office again last year (at 82 years old) after being convicted of financial crimes.

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This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

My guess is Schumer thinks Warnock & Ossoff do not need any more money- Considering Ossoff has raised more money than any other Senate race in the history of the US.  Not sure about being "pessimistic" about their chances?  He could have been downplaying expectations and this one source took it the wrong way. 

I would be careful to read too much into one opinion or one person's characterization in this regard.
Also- surely Ossoff & Warnock have plenty of money to finish out this election without having to spare any expenses.  If not- I would suggest they hire new consultants.

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It's almost laughable how hard FoxNews is trying to completely smear Warnock- even saying that the reason Warnock does not have any events scheduled today is because he's hiding due to the "allegations that he ran over his wife's foot ...that came to light recently." (reality these have been out for a long time- and when examined, his wife's foot was perfectly fine).

In some ways it's not even a smart strategy for Fox.  If they are trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands, you would think they would target Ossoff... who polls indicate is likely to get fewer votes than Warnock.  I also think these over the top attacks on Warnock have only served to increase AA turnout.

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It's almost laughable how hard FoxNews is trying to completely smear Warnock- even saying that the reason Warnock does not have any events scheduled today is because he's hiding due to the "allegations that he ran over his wife's foot ...that came to light recently." (reality these have been out for a long time- and when examined, his wife's foot was perfectly fine).

In some ways it's not even a smart strategy for Fox.  If they are trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands, you would think they would target Ossoff... who polls indicate is likely to get fewer votes than Warnock.  I also think these over the top attacks on Warnock have only served to increase AA turnout.

Fox is even running this on their 6:00 News Hour.

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Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

Based on the Counties, is this a small advantage for Dems or Republicans? (I'm guessing any time EV is open its good for Dems, regardless of the County?)

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And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

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Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

When Fox has played this clip- they cut it off after about 10-15 seconds.