Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

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In Hannity's big push to scare his GA viewers into voting in the runoff (rant of wild claims about Warnock & Ossoff and what will happen if they win)...

he ends by claiming that in the Trafalgar Poll, Trafalgar factors in a 3.1% cheating factor. (this was his intro to interviewing Newt, with the Newt quote that GA Republicans need to turn out more votes than Stacey Abrams can steal).

Is this Trafalagar's way to not anger Hardcore R's who get mad at pollsters when polls don't go their way... or is this just a wild lie Hannity decides to spew? ...both of which seem odd and crazy.

(BTW- hopefully it won't matter, but Fox is making a much bigger effort to turnout R's ... compared to the attention CNN/ MSNBC are giving to the runoff).  Republicans basically are now getting round the clock (literally) GOTV assistance from FOX.

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I am trying to create a post with all of the closing ads from the 4 candidates...

Can someone tell me how to insert youtube videos... or is the only option- to insert Tweets that contain the video?

(I will delete this when someone responds- as I'm not sure if how-to questions are supposed to be in this thread)

Click on the youtube button next to facebook and copy in the link.

Thanks for the reply... but where are the youtube & facebook buttons.  I only see a twitter button, image button, etc

You don't have to bother with that. Just use [facebo0k], [y0utube], [/facebo0k], and [/y0utube]

(Zeros used to make the actual text show up, they're actually "o"s.)

Thanks

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Was a breakdown provided regarding what % of each voting method Ossoff won in the General (Mail-in, Early In-Person, Election Day)?

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Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

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On the one hand, ForsythVoter is almost a caricature of everything wrong with American politics-the obsession with the Deficit (tm), the sweating fear at night that someone somewhere might get direct benefits from the State, the politics of aesthetic respectability that excused Bush and rejected Trump because of "decorum". On a purely visceral level, I suppose it disgusts me that that the Democratic Party is not an automatically hostile area for such voters. However, I suppose that voting for the right candidate for imbecilic reasons is superior to voting for the wrong candidate for imbecilic reasons.

Good thing everyone is entitled to their opinions... I am a Dem who is perfectly fine with ForsythVoter's approach, any day of the week- regardless of political views. But I am also one of those crazies who thinks "decorum" is an essential requirement to some degree (higher than Trump afforded)- in order to have a (lasting) democracy.

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Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

Thanks, this is exactly what I was looking for! (numbers from the General election)

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VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
...
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white


IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
...
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

I'm using super wide General Assumptions here.... but, if you suppose that the mail-in net votes is a wash (same Net votes as the General) for Dems ... and just look at the gain in net votes for Dems via In-Person EV (strictly using the gain in Black/White margin.... since race is the most consistent determination of votes in Georgia), you get:

536K Votes for Dems (Nov race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)
626K Votes for Dems (Runoff race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)

which is a +90K (Net) Gain for Dems.  So if the Election Day numbers were exactly the same as November:

Ossoff would win by 2,000 votes (since he lost by 88K votes in Nov).
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To me, this is in the ballpark of the best case scenario for Republicans- one reason of which, is it allows for the same number of people turning out on Election Day (as that total goes down, R's net less votes on Election Day, assuming similar R/D turnout model).

Based on the Nov breakdown (contained in the post ^2 above^ --- this hypo scenario does seem plausible as Republican's best case scenario, in which they would have an even shot of pulling out a narrow victory.  

Granted you would have to read many of the unknowns into R's favor. But this also requires the same level of turnout on Election Day as the General (this is where I think they will fall short, even in this scenario.  I do think the margin split will be similar to ED in Nov, And that the Trump rally/attention will cause turnout to be higher than expected next Tues, but- just not as high as Election Day).

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Saw an interesting theory:

Parties only do well out of power AFTER a year or so into a president’s term.

In elections immediately following a loss, the losing party sees dampened turnout due to depressed voters who are dismayed

Remember: gop did poorly in December 2008 and early 2009 elections

I definitely think this is true in general- as well as currently true for Republicans in GA. (and although it is not likely to get much better in the next 3 day... I never underestimate the power of Trump to turn out his base on a moments notice.  But I don't think it will happen this time- B/c I think the principle you mentioned above, will trump Trump's turnout power).

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Will Perdue's quarantine all the way until election day, coupled with not showing up for debate- make him come across as someone constantly "hiding out" or avoiding answering questions (in the case of the quarantine... maybe questions about his view of Josh Hawley's stunt, or specific questions on his stimulus stance, etc)?

Maybe he really is just being responsible- but it just seems like he's probably been exposed to someone with covid before without deciding to quarantine... and if he thought it would help him win, to not quarantine- I imagine he would choose not to (or only for a day or two).  So I'm wondering if this is a miscalculation on his part, in thinking this will help him in some way? (It just seems like the "running out the clock" strategy never plays well in close elections).

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Interesting political calculation today by Perdue to criticize GA Secr of State, and defend Trump.

It may have no effect & I guess could be the correct calculation- although I think it is not the right move, at least for Perdue (maybe some word salad that actually said very little would have been smarter since he's already decided to pursue the hideout until the election strategy).

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I'm sorry, but does Loeffler's campaign outfits irritate anyone else?

They are extremely tacky and they make her clearly come off as a rich person trying to be rural or working class.

I'm sure it was unintentional, but harping on a female candidate's clothes is just a touch too close to thinly veiled sexism than we should be comfortable with.

Also, damn both of you for making me defend that demented quarterwit.

I disagree here.  I think she would have been subject to more criticism had she been a man dressing up in the farmer getup.  She is essentially wearing a costume- so I in no way think this is criticizing how a woman is dressing in a sexist way. Even the word "tacky" I take to mean the idea of the outfit (almost Billionaire trying to pull off a look she thinks evokes the image of more common person in the rural south- or whatever) is in bad taste, rather than they look tacky.  But either way, I actually don't even see this as a close call.

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On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

Any other hints you can throw us?

What is the implied meaning behind "this has been among the most stable races" ... Who does this statement favor?  Most all other polling would indicate this race has had a lead change or two along the way (or at least a few changes in momentum).

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https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1344846289427599362

This is great.  The irony of truly fake news (which Republicans politicians have been complicit in promoting) possibly causing R's to end up losing control of the Senate- would be a perfect ending to the 2020 election rollercoaster.

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Rain in Atlanta

Weather.com said that there is only a 5% chance of rain in Atlanta tomorrow.

Accuweather.com said 2%.

It's supposed to be sunny to partly cloudy, cool and windy (high 54F / low 30F / winds 10-15 mph).

GeorgiaModerate- Ancedotally based on ppl you know, do you (and others on here from GA), think Dems will have stronger than expected turnout numbers tomorrow for the Election Day vote?

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On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

I think the level of support Perdue receives is one of the biggest unknowns.  So, imo, if Perdue support is weaker than many have expected- it seems very plausible that Ossoff outperforms Warnock.

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This is about the outcome I’m expecting as well, though I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong. It’s really all up to how many of those rurals show up tomorrow.

I agree regarding rural GA deciding.  I've said for a while now that I hope Warnock & Ossoff are really working to turnout Dems in Rural counties- and not placing all their eggs in big Atlanta area turnout- b/c I think the big turnout in Atlanta may get things to even... then Dems need to keep the rural Margins down enough to win both races.  I guess we will see tomorrow if they successfully targeted enough voters in Rural GA.

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Loeffler joining Perdue in going full Trump. Guess they believe that's their only way to win now. Guess her own election should not be voided though but Bidens should?

I wonder if the Die Hard Trump crowd would even reward a last-minute endorsement (of their strategy) .. or if they will see it as weak and not committed enough (for waiting so late for a full-throated endorsement of it).

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My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

I wonder if Sonny Perdue (David Perdue''s uncle I think) who was Governor and currently, Trumps Secr of Agriculture has anything to do with such support.   My Granddad and many family members on my mom's side are farmers- and despite Trump's policies not being good for them... they all still voted for and support Trump? (My dad's side has a little more sense!)

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I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Nice! What convinced them now?

Just asking them to vote. Full transparency, they are young adults who are very transient when it comes to housing. There's no way that they have ever been canvassed or been in a position to think about an election that intently.

ETA: I told them a few reasons why I'm supporting, but they were mostly sold on the $2k checks and that Ossoff/Warnock are anti-Trump lol.

Good Work! I hope many other GA Dems are doing the same as well.

I probably should know this- but what part of GA are you from? (Atl Metro or outside of Atl)

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At Trump Rally- he keeps saying that "more ballots were cast in (inserts different states), than registered voters."

Any modicum of logic should tell ppl, that never in the history of elections has a state achieved (or even come close to) 100% turnout... much less 100%+ turnout.

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If Republicans jump to a big lead early tomorrow & then Warnock & Ossoff end up winning after all of Atl & Early votes are reported- the conspiracy theorists (who have no logical understanding of elections, much less how votes are reported) are going to go nuts again.

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Pander much? In case anyone missed Perdue (looking pretty weak & pathetic) saying Senators should object to certification:

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1346230166050267143

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I hope we see a lot of voters under 65 at the polls today- and hopefully many under 30.  If I'm not mistaken, the over 65 % of the Early Vote is a decent amount higher than November.  This is the one stat that is my biggest worry regarding the EV, which otherwise appears to be good for Dems.

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https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1344846289427599362

Does anyone know if there has been any commentary or counter-messaging to this ad?

Also- is the ad running anywhere other than Newsmax?

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In some ways- Loeffler & Perdue were smart to wait until the very last minute to call for Senators to vote against certification of the Presidential election (even though the position itself is idiotic), because it gives Dems less time to expose their position to Republican Biden voters who would likely have a problem with it.

But have Ossoff & Warnock done anything overnight to potentially exploit their position (to moderate Election Day voters)?  ... or is this something they are probably naturally aware of via local media, social media, etc?