MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

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Are there many Republican districts that have competitive Dems running this year... that may help get more Dems than usual to the polls in Missouri?

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If Hawley is pulling ahead- I think its unfortunate... McCaskill strikes me as worlds ahead of Hawley regarding what the Senate needs and who would ultimately be the best for Missouri overall... (And I've just always liked McCaskill for her political savvy).

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In looking at the Ads from MO... McCaskill has a great overall ad campaign- But the Hawley Ad about pre-existing conditions (posted Below) (Granted its a completely dishonest Ad, given that his healthcare positions do not ensure pre-existing protection)... but dishonesty aside, it seems like a very effective ad for winning over some undecided voters who were unsure about Hawley (makes him "seem" likeable and more moderate).

Dishonest yet effective since... many probably will not know its false (since most voters, especially undecided, tend to follow politics much less closely than politicos)....

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1044323880389791745

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What do new voter registration number in Missouri indicate? (do they favor Dems. Repubs, about even , etc)?

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What do those who live in Missouri feel about the state of the race.  Is everything still up in the air... is one side pulling a little ahead, or do you have a feeling in general regarding who will pull out the win?

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Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.

What's the deal with this?  ... is there really a new poll- or is this what Hawley campaign is saying about their internals?

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Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.

What's the deal with this?  ... is there really a new poll- or is this what Hawley campaign is saying about their internals?

I assume it's this poll.

That read to me (at least potentially) like... maybe Hawley did get a jump during kavanaugh-but they see that lead receding... and now they are a bit worried so trying to make him have sort of an air of inevitability.  Otherwise- if he really was in such a strong (almost undefeatable sounding) position- there would be no reason to put this info out.

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Sounds like if McCaskill could find a way to effectively convey (& convince) voters that Hawley is absolutely not being honest about protecting Pre-existing condition- where as she has fought and will continue to fight to protect PE Conditions... this could potentially make up a couple of points

(not only b/c Voters rank this as such an important issue-  but always b/c it would make Hawley seem sort of fake or like he will say anything)... that is if she could find a way to really drive the point home (that he is playing roulette with this issue by sueing etc)

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Pretty decent story regarding the MO campaign...
"Does McCaskill Have 1 More Trick Up Her Sleeve"
https://www.stripes.com/opinion/mccaskill-might-have-1-last-magic-trick-1.553299

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McCaskill is goin' down, obviously.

When she starts running ads that refer to her as

Not one of those crazy Democrats

you know she's in trouble, big trouble

Yeah that's not the type of ad you play when you're ahead, her internals also probably show her down if she's pulling stunts like that

I hope Dems in MO a smart enough to give McCaskill leeway to during a tight campaign.  The alternative is to make is easier for Hawley to win... and Hawley certainly wouldn't have voted against Kavanaugh ... and would have certainly voted to end Obamacare (which, without McCaskill's vote, would have gone through). 

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For whatever reason (not a Hawley fan, I respect McCaskill for being a tough politico, want to see her pull out an upset again, Know she is much better for the state, etc)... this is the one Senate race I most want to see go Dem.  (Texas and TN are close 2nd).

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Looking at the latest poll for FOX- the numbers aren't that bad for McCaskill.  She obviously really needs high turnout in St. Louis.

It was interesting when looking at likelihood to vote:
(49%) Extremely likely............McCaskill +2
(28%) Very Likely..............Hawley +4
(20%) Somewhat Likely.........McCaskill +1

***In September, the leader in each of the categories was reversed

In addition to St. Louis turnout, McCaskill really needs the "Somewhat Likely" to turn out.

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Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

Ebsy- what's the general reputation or impression of Hawley among the average everyday voter in Missouri?

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Is Obama not hugely popular in St Louis since its practically a part of Ill?  Why is he not doing a GOTV event in St Louis?

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Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

This wasn't via McCaskill... it was an outside group.  When McCaskill wants to pull a political move- she does it legally and puts her name on it (ie her TV ads saying her last opponent was too conservative during the Republican Primary).

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Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

This wasn't via McCaskill... it was an outside group.  When McCaskill wants to pull a political move- she does it legally and puts her name on it (ie her TV ads saying her last opponent was too conservative during the Republican Primary).

She wasn't down in the polls a week before election day in 2012. Sleazy people do desperate things in politics.

If she was going to risk pull a questionable move... she's savvy enough that she would do something more effective.  A mailer like the one you mentioned is not going to sway the election... and McCaskill is smart enough to know this.

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Here are the closing ads so far (past week) in MO...

b]McCaskill Ads released in the past week [/b]
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057694648372731904
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055651043021733888
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057279102795898880
https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1057660506004226049
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055641072720736256

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Hawley Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/MissouriGOP/status/1050379740639449089
I assume Hawley either has additional ads out this week that he just hasn't posted on social media yet.. or either he will put out closing ads this weekend.  This was the only ad I could find released in the past week.

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She's been talking about the "crazy Democrats."

She called crazy Dems... the Dems who are harassing people in restaurants, etc ... she was not referring to any policy positions.

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Just watching the race from outside of the state (not knowing whats going on in MO itself) ...I've been surprised at how well McCaskill is holding up in the MO polls (keeping it basically tied).  In fact the trendline graph on RCP actually looks better for McCaskill than Hawley.

From an outsiders look- it would seem that McCaskill may have weaker minority support on election day than in past years... and that she is really going to have to rely on crossover vote.  (But this thinking is mainly due to hearing National media stories regarding calling Dems who protest Republican officials in restaurants etc... crazy Dems, etc)....which I guess in reality may not be as big of a deal in the state?

Also- I get the sense that the national media may be, possibly, portraying Hawley as a stronger candidate than he actually is in the state.

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Here are the closing ads so far (past week) in MO...

McCaskill Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057694648372731904
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055651043021733888
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057279102795898880
https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1057660506004226049
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055641072720736256

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Hawley Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/MissouriGOP/status/1050379740639449089
I assume Hawley either has additional ads out this week that he just hasn't posted on social media yet.. or either he will put out closing ads this weekend.  This was the only ad I could find released in the past week.

McCaskill's Ads are by far the best ads I've seen in the country (I think the 2nd Ad above "Youngest Woman in Jeff City", is especially strong) (and a pretty effective attack in the 1st ad as I think that was even an issue that Hawley was worried about).  If it really is a tied race, such a good ad campaign could actually make the difference.  (Hawley's ad, although misleading, is actually a decent attack ad as well.... however usually attack ads that ring a bit of truth tend to be most effective... and I tend to think the fact that she has got some flack from the left may make this ad less effective)... but I guess you never know which attack ads will work.

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Gun to my head, Hawley.

I keep going back to 2016.  Trump underpolled by 6 points verus the RCP average.  If it is a third of that this cycle, Hawley wins.

I keep wondering if the polling models in states that were outside the margin of error in 2016 (MO, IN, etc)... will experience an overcorrection in the polling models for 2018 as the pendulum of Trump support swing back a bit.

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Mrs McCaskill is quite skilled with going negative. She deposed the sitting governor of her own party in 2004 with the term "One-Term-Bob". Now she defines Mr Hawley quite negatively as well. As my pre-poster said, other Democrats(especially the one in TX) are not remotely as skillful and/or have the suiting opponent. Going negative is quite important and easiest-for-common to understand skill to show leadership. Honestly, who does not appreciate a brawl?

I really admire her ruthless aggression compared to the lot of the other bland waffle-y red state Dems.

I like that she can come across as both ruthless, but yet still very sincere and a hard worker for her state.  That's a hard combo to pull off- and I think even harder for a female politician to pull off.

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Hawley is a liar:

https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1058771871318114305

This self-inflicted wound shoud secure Mrs McCaskill's senate seat.
Maybe Mr Hawley should apply for an internship at Sen. Akin's or Sen. Angle's Office before running again  for an appropiate office like dog catcher.

What is being claimed about Hawley & Consultants, etc?  And is it something that would be an ethical violation or something a little more serious?

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McCaskill winning is the single Senate result I want most.

For some reason- I have found myself in the same boat.

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Did not notice this before, but McCaskill has received endorsements from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Columbia Daily Tribune in addition to the Kansas City Star.

Do newspaper endorsements still have any impact in MO?