Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[BG-NY]

Polling done this weekend will generally not get published until the middle of this week. America has been under much political stress, and in general people dislike political stress.

President Biden bet big and won. Americans like political winners.

I look forward to your state polling updates a week from now, then.

[BG-NY]

New CNN/SSRS poll (Nov 1-4)

Biden approval-
Adults: 48/52 (50/49 in early October)
RV: 45/54

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/11/08/rel7a.-.politics.pdf

Sign of a shift, closer to late-summer (September) reality? I'm saying nothing so far. Completion of a map is a valid exercise.

Nope. Biden got all-time low. The trend is still awful. -5 shift among Adults, and -9 points shift among RV since October.

Adults:
48 (-2 since OCT 7-11, 2021)
52 (+3)


RV:
45 (-5)
54 (+4)


   
(C)-rated CNN/SSRS
NOV 1-4, 2021
1,004   A
859   RV

And as the poll states, the demographic most dragging down Biden's performance in this poll is actually young voters, which we've seen in many polls now. Funny enough, if young voters 'approved' the same way that they vote (obviously big D advantage), Biden's approvals would be fine right now, but young voters are clearly disillusioned at what they see as not enough progress on the things they care about

Just because young people won’t vote R doesn’t mean they *will* vote D. They can vote third party, write someone in, leave president blank, or just stay home. Like in 2000 or 2016.

[BG-NY]

Poor Brandon.

[BG-NY]

If it’s PBrower or Wbrocks posting it’s a relatively good poll. If it’s Sergi it’s a bad one. I don’t even need to see the numbers.

GeorgiaModerate and Vaccinated Bear are trickier. Both post a mixture of good and bad.

[BG-NY]

Biden doesn’t deserve to drop to W Bush territory. Hopefully Congressional Dems stop screwing him over.

[BG-NY]

Pbower2A has been very quiet as of late

Why?

[BG-NY]

[BG-NY]

Somehow a 304 map is both the ceiling and the floor, and is immutable to change.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1459762763043991552
Post BIF too. Looks like it wasn’t a game-changer.
Might be BBB or bust.

[BG-NY]

It’s possible that group of people wants more government intervention in economic issues, less government intervention in social issues?

[BG-NY]

Something people need to be more careful about when reading polls - look at averages of trends, not at raw averages. Polls have inherent biases that no degree of Longroom or 538 unskewing can mend. You can however see how they’ve changed to monitor current climate and trajectory.

[BG-NY]

With Biden’s continued decline, is it still “Morning Again In America”?

[BG-NY]

It's been 5 yrs since RS cracked the 304 blue wall since 2016 with Gary Johnson and Hillary Clinton, RS haven't cracked it since

2016 Gary Johnson voters were more likely to have Trump as their second choice than Clinton, by a 2:1 margin.

In 2020 however, 2016 Gary Johnson voters who voted for the D or R voted Biden at a 60:40 clip over Trump.

In general you shouldn’t try and predict how third party voters would vote otherwise. Most would probably leave the ballot blank, or stay home. Or those who would vote D/R wouldn’t make a huge difference. 1968 and 1992 (not even 1980 or 1996) are the only two where it conceivably could have made a difference in outcome, but even then it almost assuredly would benefit the EC winner more.

[BG-NY]

It's been 5 yrs since RS cracked the 304 blue wall since 2016 with Gary Johnson and Hillary Clinton, RS haven't cracked it since

2016 Gary Johnson voters were more likely to have Trump as their second choice than Clinton, by a 2:1 margin.

In 2020 however, 2016 Gary Johnson voters who voted for the D or R voted Biden at a 60:40 clip over Trump.

In general you shouldn’t try and predict how third party voters would vote otherwise. Most would probably leave the ballot blank, or stay home. Or those who would vote D/R wouldn’t make a huge difference. 1968 and 1992 (not even 1980 or 1996) are the only two where it conceivably could have made a difference in outcome, but even then it almost assuredly would benefit the EC winner more.

Blah, Blah, Blah, Benghazi Hurt Hillary and immigration hurt her too but media blamed Blk voters for not supporting Hillary and WC voters voted for, it's in the p

Sestak would have helped Hillary won WI and Ron Johnson ran on Brghaxinand in MI she lost narrowly

Wisconsin wasn’t the tipping point. Pennsylvania was. She campaigned there extensively and spent a ton. Even if she wins WI and MI she still loses (and keep in mind NH nearly went R, by a closer margin than any of those three).

Hillary probably wins in 2020 with Covid as a major issue, and Biden loses in 2016 without it.

Sexism is real but Hillary wasn’t a bad candidate. Biden and Hillary are both similar on immigration. He might be to her left.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Yup. Dems are just hilariously inept in selling their accomplishments and policies.

FDR did extremely well.  People were concerned about the growth of the role of government, but not if it made life better for them or saved the system. Full-blown Gilded-era plutocracy was no longer available, so people who believed in plutocracy had to choose between the New Deal that staved off revolution, Hitlerism, or Stalinism. The choices are not so stark now. 

The electorate was 95% white then. There was no social media, cable television, or talk radio. Remove those changes and Biden does a lot better, too.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Yup. Dems are just hilariously inept in selling their accomplishments and policies.

FDR did extremely well.  People were concerned about the growth of the role of government, but not if it made life better for them or saved the system. Full-blown Gilded-era plutocracy was no longer available, so people who believed in plutocracy had to choose between the New Deal that staved off revolution, Hitlerism, or Stalinism. The choices are not so stark now. 

The electorate was 95% white then. There was no social media, cable television, or talk radio. Remove those changes and Biden does a lot better, too.

This is so tue

Unfortunately, in the era of social media facts don't matter, which is why 63% in the new WaPo-ABC poll said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency despite the fact the he is on currently track to beat both trump and bill Clinton when it comes to Major bills that he has successfully passed

Public perception and reality are vastly different. The same is true with congress, that has like -70% approval rating and most imcumbents still win reelection.

I also remember reports from Kentucky Trump voters why they voted for him although they depended on Obamacare. All of them said they never expected him to undo the bill, just fix fit. Clearly not what Republicans talked about ever since 2010.

Something hurting Biden right now is his approvals *should* be around ten points higher. Now if there is an actual inflation crisis or mini-recession in the next three years, he’ll be punished twice over (even though the economy is doing fine now). I have a lot of issues with Biden, but he shouldn’t be approaching W Bush second term approvals.

Maybe it’s the media. Maybe it’s Sinemanchin. Maybe it’s the Squad. Maybe it’s McConnell. But I don’t think the country is giving Biden a fair shot.

[BG-NY]

What was the lowest Trump got on RCP/538?

[BG-NY]

Much of the other deep-blue will likely soon be shown as obsolete.

I really hope so. Biden doesn't deserve to descend into W Bush territory.

Unrelated - do you have tomorrow's lottery numbers too?

[BG-NY]

Is this oc's map?

[BG-NY]

GA isn't tilt D it's overrated as a D lean State Warnock only won because he promised 2K checks and there arent any and Abrams might not even run and Warnock is headed for a Runoff


Warnock win by the same margin Biden won WI by

Then how do you get to 278?

[BG-NY]

So we went from 304 to 278 to 303 in a matter of 72 hours? Maybe we should all admit there is a lot of uncertainty.

Also OC I don’t think GA is voting right of PA in 2024.

[BG-NY]

So we went from 304 to 278 to 303 in a matter of 72 hours? Maybe we should all admit there is a lot of uncertainty.

Also OC I don’t think GA is voting right of PA in 2024.

Warnock win on 2K checks he won 85K voted PA is a D state, Abrams isn't running for Gov Cook has Kemp Fav, and Warnock can easily lose a runoff

Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in OA GA has no Senate race if DeSantis is the nominee he will win GA not apA with Bob Casey Jr up in 24 yes it will vote right of PA, GA isn't VA it only voted once since 1992 D

I think you probably are attached to the 2012 map. This is an issue I have too re:2016. Look at this thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=470983.msg8348423#msg8348423

I think trends are real.

[BG-NY]

Blah Blah Blah I am my attached to the 2012 how is Warnock winning by 85 K  on the back of 2K checks a D state

Traggy had Walker leading Warnock in a poll recently

I believe Warnock is gonna win but he isn't safe like Bob Casey Jr and he promised 2K checks there aren't anymore of those, he was losing before McConnell blocked 2K checks

If GA is so safe D, Abrams would have announced and she hasn't yet, if she doesn't run, we have no D and Kemp will win and Cook has Kemp winning anyways regardless if Abrams runs

Walker winning doesn’t make GA less safe D (well I would call it likely D). GOP won VA which is safe D in 2024.

Abrams hasn’t announced because she wants to replace Jaime Harrison as DNC chair after dems lose in midterms. She wants a national profile, and governors generally are not strong candidates for president in this era of polarization.

[BG-NY]

Well, it looks as if the catastrophic polling that followed the Afghanistan departure is abating.

The same poll in September had Biden’s disapproval at 52, it’s now up to 53:

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/dmn-uttylersept2021rv.pdf

[BG-NY]

I miss the optimistic oc. This thread has become a downer lately.