AR-SEN: Does Cotton win every county if the independent Democrat doesn’t make the ballot?

[Greedo punched first]

Does Tom Cotton win every county if the independent Democrat fails to qualify for the ballot? If not, which counties does Ricky Harrington win?

[Greedo punched first]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

I don't see why anyone in those counties would turn out if there isn't even a de facto Democrat like Dan Whitfield on the ballot.

[Greedo punched first]

For reference, the AR-Gov race in 2018 was 65-32 for Hutchinson. Phillips County was the most Dem county in the state, going 54-44 for the Dem. Next up was Lee, going 53-45 for the Dem. Those are the most likely, and with Lee’s small population of only 10,000 or so, if Harrington Jr. actively campaigned there he might squeak by with a majority.

I don't see why anyone in those counties would turn out if there isn't even a de facto Democrat like Dan Whitfield on the ballot.

The number of people who don’t turn out to vote in a presidential year because there’s no Democrat candidate in one single down-ballot race which would have been non-competitive even if a Democrat had been on the ballot is closer than zero than Harrington's chance of winning a county or two.

I didn't mean that they wouldn't turn out at all. I meant that they wouldn't turn out for Senate.

[Greedo punched first]

Democrats voted for the Libertarian. Harrington opposed Amy Coney Barrett, which helped him with Democrats.