New PA Maps In Effect

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Kennedy upheld redistricting commissions. It's hard to see what he might do. He indicated in 2004 that he might reconsider these cases, unlike Thomas.

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Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

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Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

A Democrat would not have been confirmed. Is this a threat to primary Tom Wolf?

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Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

A Democrat would not have been confirmed. Is this a threat to primary Tom Wolf?

How did you get that from his comment??

The other maroon avatars always call for primary challenges in swing states and red states.  A GOP governor of a solid blue state would almost certainly appoint a Democrat for the legislature to confirm.

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I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

The only way to stop it is to declare it unconstitutional for state constitutions to regulate congressional district maps.   That would be too extreme of a ruling even for the Republican Justices.

I think the majority in a Supreme Court decision for this specific case would be 7-2; the 4 Democrats, Kennedy, Roberts, and even Alito! What makes me think Alito would side with the 4 Democrats? Alito refused to hear a California gun control case because he believed the claim violated states' rights.

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Does it take 5 justices to grant a stay like with most cases, or does it only take 4?

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I really hope the Republicans think this through, because if the Supreme Court rules any kind of state intervention for redistricting unconstitutional, there's nothing stopping states like California, New Jersey, New York, Washington, and others from disbanding their committees and redrawing heavily gerrymandered seats.

In the end it's the Republicans that currently benefit quite heavily from Redistricting Reform.   The only states where they don't (that I can think of) are Florida and Arizona.

There's also Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan. Redistricting reform hurts Republicans in those states.

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I really hope the Republicans think this through, because if the Supreme Court rules any kind of state intervention for redistricting unconstitutional, there's nothing stopping states like California, New Jersey, New York, Washington, and others from disbanding their committees and redrawing heavily gerrymandered seats.

In the end it's the Republicans that currently benefit quite heavily from Redistricting Reform.   The only states where they don't (that I can think of) are Florida and Arizona.

There's also Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan. Redistricting reform hurts Republicans in those states.

If you're talking about the VRA I'm pretty sure that wouldn't apply.  

I would love to see the Republicans try to gerrymander any more seats out of Ohio and North Carolina.

No. A redistricting commission would dramatically help Democrats in OH, NC, TX, PA, VA, and MI.

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I had a feeling the PAGOP's request was far too crazy for even Alito to go along with.

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Does this help Matt Cartwright?

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What will PA-07 look like?

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PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Dwight Evans (D)
PA-03 (Bob Brady's district): TBD
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D)
PA-05 (Pat Meehan's district): TBD
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07 (Charlie Dent's district): TBD
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09 (Lou Barletta's district): TBD
PA-10 (unknown Harrisburg district): TBD
PA-11: Scott Perry (R) and Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino (R)
PA-13: Bill Shuster (R)
PA-14: TBD
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R)
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)

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Who will run in the new Harrisburg District?

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It looks like Scott Perry and Lloyd Smucker will run against each other in PA-11.

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Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

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Brendan Boyle is now a carpetbagger in PA-04.

Why would boyle stay in 4 when he is a Philly congressman, the 2nd is drawn to elect a White Democrat, and contains his house?

Where would Dwight Evans go, to the 1st?

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Who goes to PA-04, where much of that district is currently represented by Brendan Boyle?

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The new 10th district only went for Trump by 9 - could Perry be in trouble here? Is this Holden's former seazt?

The 10th is Holden's old seat. Does Perry run in the 10th? Holden might run in the 10th.

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Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

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Where candidates might run:
PA-01:Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-02: Brendan Boyle (D)?
PA-03: Dwight Evans (D)
PA-04: Brendan Boyle (D)?
PA-05: Joe Sestak (D)?
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-07: ???
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-09: ???
PA-10: Scott Perry (R), Tim Holden (D)?
PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R)
PA-12: Tom Marino
PA-13: ???
PA-14: Rick Saccone (R), Conor Lamb (D)?
PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R)
PA-16: Mike Kelly (R)
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R), Conor Lamb (D)?
PA-18: Michael Doyle (D)

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What I don't understand is why districts had to be renumbered. Everyone knew 8th meant Bucks, 14th meant Pittsburgh, 15th meant Allentown and so on...

They don't have to be. Sometimes they get renumbered, other times they don't. I don't know the reason for this. It's just the way it is.

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Brendan Boyle has a GOP opponent, Kris Hart.

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Aren't at Large State Congressional delegations unconstitutional?

Only if they violate the "one person one vote doctrine". Hawaii and New Mexico are the 2 states given special permission to have multi-member at-large districts.

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1967 Federal statute. Hawaii and New Mexico are exempt. HI and NM can use multi-member districts.

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Who wrote the majority opinion, Roberts?