2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jesus Scott

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Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

These margins are insane

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Any Georgia updates?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169
Lol this is awesome

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Penn is still looking good for Biden so why are some getting pessimistic here about it?

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Fwi both Fox and AP don’t use the Edison people who botched Arizona so they called Arizona with accurate data

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https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

Lol

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Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

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Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

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CNN saying that Trump's team is anxious about GA right now, and that "they did not see this coming".

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.

New sig!

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

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So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

Based on how the math is shaping out I’d say the odds are tipping in his favor

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So is Biden favored to win Georgia at this point?

If you ask everyone yes. But ... well you’ll see

Well, I kinda was asking everyone except you since I’ve heard your answer 400 times today

Oh snap
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-y8ViGvCrL8

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Arizona update: Biden leads 887K -802K

Maricopa stays in favor of Biden 52-47%

What a world were I’m happy Fox News got something right 0.0

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AP has called AZ for Biden.

Didn’t they do that several hours ago?

That’s the joke

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Also fwi Pina County has like 90k ballots left to count too

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Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

[/b]

As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

If that's the case, why did Democrats get clobbered on Long Island?

You now there’s like hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots to be counted on LI right? Like you were saying Suozzi lost but he’s down by 3k with 90k in mail in ballots in his district not yet counted

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From these trends I'm seeing in Arizona, Trump ends up winning by 11,500 votes. If he holds Pennsylvania, NC and GA then Biden is gone.

This race has been like a rollercoaster. Truly.

Who here wants to break it to him?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1324176695516143616

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Wait, it went back up?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324214930816540673

That account never cites its data and as a result has made botches before so I wouldn’t read into it

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Wait, it went back up?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324214930816540673

It... shouldn’t have.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.

Oh wait so you’re saying that account first cited the nbc guy on the ground first and then cited the SOS numbers? So either the the nbc guy jumped the gun and we are still at 31k with no new ballots or the SOS page is behind the nbc and this Twitter account just scared everyone by citing old data?

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Wait, it went back up?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324214930816540673

It... shouldn’t have.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.

Oh wait so you’re saying that account first cited the nbc guy on the ground first and then cited the SOS numbers? So either the the nbc guy jumped the gun and we are still at 31k with no new ballots or the SOS page is behind the nbc and this Twitter account just scared everyone by citing old data?

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324216648501497856

Oh so the latter it is. Sweet 👍

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GA margin: 29,000 votes.

For who?

Trump. I think he’s citing the SOS page which has been slower then the nbc guy we’ve been citing that has the race down to 15k

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GA margin: 29,000 votes.

For who?

Trump. I think he’s citing the SOS page which has been slower then the nbc guy we’ve been citing that has the race down to 15k

Nope. I'm citing the NYT page.

NYT is also lagging behind with the SOS page too so same difference tbh

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CNN just announced that the Georgia SOS said there is 90k ballots left to count!