The Dem nominee is very unlikely to be a white male though. Certainly less than 50%, maybe less than 20%, or even less than 10%.
Strongly disagree here. Less than 10%? That's crazy talk. I'd say it's around 50%. If I knew for a fact that the nominee would be one of the people in the "top 10" or so most likely, then yes, more likely than not to be a woman or minority (or both), since that list skews minority and female, including, e.g., Warren, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and probably Klobuchar. Those folks are all more likely to win the nomination than, say, Andrew Cuomo. However, the chances of it being someone outside the top 10 have got to be greater than 20%, and most of the potential "surprise" nominees are white males.
And yes, the most likely white male nominees are Biden and Sanders. I agree that they're not the most likely to run, but in the scenarios where they do run, they have very strong chances of winning the nomination. Probably something like 25% or more chance that the nominee is one of those two.
Morden, I didn't say with
certainty that the probability is less than 10%. I said with certainty that it's less than 50%. I merely
suggested that it could be as low as 20 or 10%.
The reason for my suggestion is due to the following: a) I disagree with you that the chances of it being someone outside the "top 10" are > 20%; b) I do not think Biden or Sanders will run.
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