Most likely white male Democratic nominee

[President Johnson]

If the 2020 Democratic nominee is a white male, who is most likely to end up as the party's standard bearer? In an interview with the first German television, scholar Cathryn Clüver (head of the Future of Diplomacy Projects at Havard University) says, she thinks the nominee will be a white man (Link (in German))

I actually think Steve Bullock is the most likely, but I may be a little biased.

[McGovernForPrez]

The three B's: Bernie, Biden, and Bullock!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Probably Biden, but I'd love a President McAuliffe.

[Lord Admirale]

I want to say Biden, but I highly doubt he'll run in 2020, so Bullock. But I also highly doubt that the 2020 nominee will be a white male.

[Coraxion]

John Delaney will win the nomination. You'll see.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Joseph Robinette Biden.

Bullock if there is a crowded field that allows him to win with a plurality of pledged delegates and he convinces Super delegates to vote for him.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Other: Gavin Newsom

Newsom will become the next Governor of California. After being governor for roughly a year he will announce his run for the presidency. He will win over progressive voters that backed Sanders so strongly in 2016, largely due to his strong progressive support on key issues such as the environment, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. He will win over enough of the remaining Dems to capture the party's nomination (aged 52), and will go on to win the presidency (aged 53) only two years after being elected Governor of California. Don't underestimate Newsom. He's the one to watch. Pay attention.

[PoliticalShelter]

Yeah I'm suprised Newsom hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread, i would say that he has a better than bullock TBH.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Kander or Bullock

[Mr. Smith]

I wouldn't rule out Stephen Colbert.

[AN63093]

I think Sanders and Biden are unlikely to run, so I guess that means Bullock.. almost by default.

The Dem nominee is very unlikely to be a white male though.  Certainly less than 50%, maybe less than 20%, or even less than 10%.

VP's another story.

[Mr. Morden]

The Dem nominee is very unlikely to be a white male though.  Certainly less than 50%, maybe less than 20%, or even less than 10%.

Strongly disagree here.  Less than 10%?  That's crazy talk.  I'd say it's around 50%.  If I knew for a fact that the nominee would be one of the people in the "top 10" or so most likely, then yes, more likely than not to be a woman or minority (or both), since that list skews minority and female, including, e.g., Warren, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and probably Klobuchar.  Those folks are all more likely to win the nomination than, say, Andrew Cuomo.  However, the chances of it being someone outside the top 10 have got to be greater than 20%, and most of the potential "surprise" nominees are white males.

And yes, the most likely white male nominees are Biden and Sanders.  I agree that they're not the most likely to run, but in the scenarios where they do run, they have very strong chances of winning the nomination.  Probably something like 25% or more chance that the nominee is one of those two.

[Liberalrocks]

Uncle Joe if he runs

[Beet]

Based on social media comments, I'd put the odds as follows-

Tulsi Gabbard 55%
Kamala Harris 35%

So yeah, AN3093 is right.
As for which one male? I'm going to say age is going to finally be a discouraging factor for Biden and Sanders, so Cuomo is probably in the best position, but it's very early. Personally, I would love to see Bullock, but according to our resident MT commenter MT Treasurer, he is not that moderate and he is not that popular and he would not be such a good candidate. On paper he's very good, and he looks good to me, but I honestly must defer to the person who actually lives in MT and can see him up close.

[Mr. Morden]

Personally, I would love to see Bullock, but according to our resident MT commenter MT Treasurer, he is not that moderate and he is not that popular and he would not be such a good candidate.

I'm not really on the Bullock train myself, but one note of potential disagreement here...

IMHO, not being that moderate actually makes him *more* likely to be the nominee than if he were a bona fide moderate.  John Edwards 2008 had the right idea, I think (I mean in terms of campaign strategy, not in terms of personal life ): The default assumption from voters in a Democratic presidential primary is that a white male with a Southern accent is going to be the "moderate" option in the field, and there just aren't enough Dem. primary voters that that appeals to to make that base the sum total of your voting constituency.  So you've got to branch out and move left on policy.

Same logic applies to Bullock, being the white male governor of Montana.  Default assumption from voters will be that he's "moderate", but if he's pigeonholed as the moderate in the field, then he has no chance of being nominated.  So he'd have to expand his base beyond that.

Now, it probably won't work, as it didn't work for Edwards either, and he's a longshot to be the nominee, but in both the Bullock and Edwards cases, it makes a heck of a lot more sense than running as the next Joe Manchin.

[AN63093]

The Dem nominee is very unlikely to be a white male though.  Certainly less than 50%, maybe less than 20%, or even less than 10%.

Strongly disagree here.  Less than 10%?  That's crazy talk.  I'd say it's around 50%.  If I knew for a fact that the nominee would be one of the people in the "top 10" or so most likely, then yes, more likely than not to be a woman or minority (or both), since that list skews minority and female, including, e.g., Warren, Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, and probably Klobuchar.  Those folks are all more likely to win the nomination than, say, Andrew Cuomo.  However, the chances of it being someone outside the top 10 have got to be greater than 20%, and most of the potential "surprise" nominees are white males.

And yes, the most likely white male nominees are Biden and Sanders.  I agree that they're not the most likely to run, but in the scenarios where they do run, they have very strong chances of winning the nomination.  Probably something like 25% or more chance that the nominee is one of those two.

Morden, I didn't say with certainty that the probability is less than 10%.  I said with certainty that it's less than 50%.  I merely suggested that it could be as low as 20 or 10%. 

The reason for my suggestion is due to the following: a) I disagree with you that the chances of it being someone outside the "top 10" are > 20%; b) I do not think Biden or Sanders will run.

[McGovernForPrez]

Personally, I would love to see Bullock, but according to our resident MT commenter MT Treasurer, he is not that moderate and he is not that popular and he would not be such a good candidate. On paper he's very good, and he looks good to me, but I honestly must defer to the person who actually lives in MT and can see him up close.

MT Treasurer says that because he thinks Bullock is more likely to run for Senate than the presidency simply because Bullock has a better chance of winning the Senate race than the POTUS nomination.

I actually agree with him when he says Bullock isn't that moderate. That's what I actually like about him. The fact that so many posters here are convinced that he's super moderate, means that he's able to project himself as more moderate than he actually is. That'll help him win the presidency without compromising most of his progressive values. If you look back historically FDR did a similar thing. Projecting himself as a moderate in order to unite the country and then tacking left after entering office.

[Meatball Ron]

I think Sherrod Brown is likelier than any of these, but realistically I don't think the nominee will be a white male.

[GGover]

If either Sanders or Biden runs, one of them will probably win the nomination.

McAuliffe seems pretty underrated on here.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden or McAuliffe, but I went with Biden.

[Lechasseur]

The only white males I can see winning the Democratic nomination are Biden, Sanders, McAuliffe, Cuomo and then maybe Newsom; in order of most to least likely to win the nomination. I'd say Biden is the most likely but if neither he or Sanders run I'd say McAuliffe.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Biden or Sanders.

[BlueSwan]

Other: Gavin Newsom

Newsom will become the next Governor of California. After being governor for roughly a year he will announce his run for the presidency. He will win over progressive voters that backed Sanders so strongly in 2016, largely due to his strong progressive support on key issues such as the environment, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. He will win over enough of the remaining Dems to capture the party's nomination (aged 52), and will go on to win the presidency (aged 53) only two years after being elected Governor of California. Don't underestimate Newsom. He's the one to watch. Pay attention.

I more or less agree, BUT he might very well decide to wait. He's young enough and would have only just been elected Governor.

[Cynthia]

Sherrod Brown.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Why not Tim Kaine? I get that he was a losing VP nominee, but why doesn't he get consideration? He's not the reason Hillary lost, and nobody really seems to think he is.