GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1600097733271990273

Just to clarify, the earlier discussion about Warnock potentially being north of 15 points ahead in the early vote, that was what we expect his lead in votes to be, whereas this tweet is referring to the partisan breakdown (and thus Warnock would still presumably be well north of 15 points when factoring in independents), right?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Everyone comfortably seated? Got their beverages?

Got myself some Johnnie Walker black label.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Not sure if my Warnock+4 prediction will hold, may be more like Warnock+2, but obviously we don't know yet.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Walker is toast

Hopefully.  If so, spread some cream cheese on him (cream cheese on toast is my new thing, it's delicious).

[South Dakota Democrat]

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock is re-elected.

What's the celebratory drink tonight?

I will have one glass of bourbon once it's officially called for Warnock, my first in a while. I've been trying to cut it back and save it for special occasions.

What brand, my friend?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock is re-elected.

What's the celebratory drink tonight?

I will have one glass of bourbon once it's officially called for Warnock, my first in a while. I've been trying to cut it back and save it for special occasions.

What brand, my friend?

Just some good old Buffalo Trace.

Very solid choice!

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1600291195250298885

They were saying on CNN, that the Cobb County numbers were initially wrong.
Is this the corrected numbers, or the old (wrong) numbers?

The former.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Reminder that even as Warnock holds this 4%+ lead, DeKalb is only 5% in.

Yep, we haven't even had the charge of the Rohirrim yet, and the needle is giving Warnock an 80% chance anyway!

It all comes down to the Battle of Helms Deep.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

Dems gloating about this would be like Republicans gloating over DeSantis winning in Florida lmao

No.

[South Dakota Democrat]

PredictIt isn't freaking out to Walker taking the lead, that's something. Anyway, looks like a narrow win for Warnock. I think some of us (myself included) overestimated the trend in Georgia, though I'd still call it a swing state rather than a Republican-leaning state. And stay away from needles, kids.

PredictIt freaking out over nothing? Say it ain't so!

No, they were saying the literal opposite.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I notice that Millennial Moderate is absent tonight.

Mods banned him from posting on this thread is why

Good call.

[South Dakota Democrat]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

The top of the hour should be enough for me to break out the bourbon.

Already sipping my Canadian Whiskey and my wife her Tito's Vodka....

Sounds awful tbh.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm. 

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress. 

Warnock just seems like an awesome guy.  Like, I actually donated a little bit of money to his campaign, which I almost never do, because I'm so impressed by him as a candidate/person.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm.  

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress.  

Why Laxalt with the other 3 as he seemed like a pretty normie R.

Didn't care for his character, just struck me as a very vindictive and unpleasant person.  Maybe it was just me, tho. 

It wasn't just you.

[South Dakota Democrat]

'NeverTrump GOP' commentators are really embarrassing themselves as pundits/analysts. Geoff Duncan said on CNN that a stronger Republican would have easily won this race by eight points, as much as Kemp.

And to top it off, Michael Steele just remarked on MSNBC that "Georgia is still a red state: look at the map!"

Yeah I was struck by the stupidity of that argument as well.  Most states, even if blue, look red when you look at the map.  I mean, New York looks pretty red when just looking at the map.

[South Dakota Democrat]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist

They sound unhinged.

[South Dakota Democrat]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist

Was gonna say, Warnock’s metro margins in 2022 will probably be a worse case scenario for Ossoff come 2026 based on migration change alone LOL

LOL, are you kidding me! Ossoff ain't going to squeeze off anymore Votes out of Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, DeKalb, etc. Tonight was pretty much worse case scenario in GA for R's unless Trump is the Nominee. If Kemp, Chris Carr, Burt Jones or Geoff Duncan run for Senate in 2026 they will post better Numbers.

You seem ignorant about a great many things.

[South Dakota Democrat]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist

Was gonna say, Warnock’s metro margins in 2022 will probably be a worse case scenario for Ossoff come 2026 based on migration change alone LOL

LOL, are you kidding me! Ossoff ain't going to squeeze off anymore Votes out of Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, DeKalb, etc. Tonight was pretty much worse case scenario in GA for R's unless Trump is the Nominee. If Kemp, Chris Carr, Burt Jones or Geoff Duncan run for Senate in 2026 they will post better Numbers.

The desperation on these posts is something to behold

2016=cray cray

[South Dakota Democrat]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

The Needle is crap with that Estimation.
How does Warnock get a 2.9 margin if only 46,000 Votes are left Statewide per NBC!

Cause they are in DeKalb lol. And there's likely more than that. Are you this ignorant?

Even if 50,000+ Votes are in DeKalb alone it doesn't get Warnock to a 2.9 Percentage Point Margin like the NEEDLE says. Do some Map!!!

Go suck a lemon.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I can see how Warnock is such a charismatic leader of a church, and not just any church, but the church of MLK and John Lewis. I can see this guy as a presidential candidate in the future!

Raphael Warnock is no BARACK OBAMA. The Country won't elect an African-American anytime soon especially not someone with "Woke Progressive Stances" like Warnock.

Who is this BARACK OBAMA of whom you speak?  I know of Barack Obama, but not BARACK OBAMA.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Can we all take a minute to appreciate just how absolutely unhinged 2016 sounds in every post they make?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Warnock is a good speaker.

If he wants a third term in 2028, he probably gets one.

I see him retiring in 2028. Politics and religion don't mix, and he should author criminal justice legislation......

Police reform/voting rights

Voting Rights Legislation and federalizing our Elections will never happen. Thank God Senator Joe Manchin stood up for that and the Filibuster remained.

Go fly a kite.

[South Dakota Democrat]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

I don't trust the Needle much.  But I trust it A LOT more than I trust you.

[South Dakota Democrat]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

Will you stop already.
You are totally embarrassing yourself.

When has that ever stopped them?

2016 is a joke.

[South Dakota Democrat]

@ProudModerate2,
Warnock will not get 2.9!

Deal?

You do realize it's the exclamation points, in particular, that make you sound unhinged, right?