North Carolina Or Georgia

[South Dakota Democrat]

NC will vote to the left of GA by 4-6 points

[South Dakota Democrat]

Might be the easiest question ever asked on this board....

North Carolina.

GEORGIA IS A LIKELY STATE. It’s not flipping anytime soon. It has close calls but never flips.

Texas will flip long before Georgia does

[South Dakota Democrat]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

Yes, which took away from the Republican vote total. Johnson votes more than likely would have voted for a different Republican candidate than Trump. The Democrat vote totally in GA hasn't changed, it was the Republican vote totally that did. That leads me to believe that around 45ish is currently the top end of what the Dems can get in GA.

Stacey Abrams would like a word.

We are talking about at the Presidental level.

But if you apply your logic then Republicans can win in MD and MA at the Presidental level.   

Except GA 2018 had an incredibly polarized electorate and presidential level turnout. The point is, with every passing election, GA becomes 2% more Dem as Atlanta grows. Split-ticket voting isn't really a thing in GA.

I'm sorry but you can't look at a Governor's race the same as a Presidental race.

You can absolutely use it as a strong indicator under certain conditions.

I disagree because in Governor races you have more local issues at play that can affect the outcome that wouldn't affect a Presidental race. That is why you get results like MD, MA, and KS in 2018. KS voted for a Democrat while MD and MA voted for a Republican.

That absolutely can be the case, but in GA 2018, it wasn't. GA 2018 was just GA 2016 with 2 years of population change and a killer ground game, nothing else.

No, you are wrong. Stacy Abrams represented the Atlanta area. She had close ties to that area and that is why she did super well in Atlanta.