North Carolina Or Georgia

[Joe Boden]

Which one flips first?

[MT Treasurer]

I’d say GA narrowly, but this question has been asked countless times already, and I still think the difference is fairly negligible either way.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

North Carolina seems more likely.

[Vern]

NC will vote to the left of GA by 4-6 points

[S019]

NC, but my bold prediction is that both flip

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely Georgia.

[😥]

North Carolina

[ON Progressive]

Georgia, because:
a) Democrats have a lot more room to fall with rural whites in NC than they do in GA.
b) Democrats have a lot less room to gain in suburbia in NC than they do in GA still.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Georgia

[MillennialModerate]

Might be the easiest question ever asked on this board....

North Carolina.

GEORGIA IS A LIKELY STATE. It’s not flipping anytime soon. It has close calls but never flips.

Texas will flip long before Georgia does

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC. NC and GA are powered by many of the same trendss, making it hard for me to see GA vote to the left of NC. If NC has flipped, GA has probably flipped as well. NC trended to the left of the nation in 2016, despite Clinton's dissapointing performance, so the state is clearly trending left in the long term.

[JRP1994]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

[Lechasseur]

North Carolina obviously

[Progressive Pessimist]

North Carolina obviously

[Lechasseur]

Out of these Southern non-Florida states, I think the order of flipping is pretty clear: NC>GA>TX

North Carolina obviously flips first for the reasons JRP1994 mentioned, then Georgia flips later of Biden is doing well enough, and then if Texas flips it means both NC and GA already flipped. That being said, the only one of these 3 I realistically see flipping in 2020 is North Carolina.

And on top of that, I could very well see Cooper carrying Biden and Cunningham in North Carolina this year. I think it may well be a reverse of WI/PA/FL 2016.
I can't see such an effect happening in GA or TX, and even if Biden somehow won those, the GOP would hold the Senate seats there regardless.

[SnowLabrador]

North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC due to Pandemic affecting this African American state

[Skill and Chance]

Out of these Southern non-Florida states, I think the order of flipping is pretty clear: NC>GA>TX

North Carolina obviously flips first for the reasons JRP1994 mentioned, then Georgia flips later of Biden is doing well enough, and then if Texas flips it means both NC and GA already flipped. That being said, the only one of these 3 I realistically see flipping in 2020 is North Carolina.

And on top of that, I could very well see Cooper carrying Biden and Cunningham in North Carolina this year. I think it may well be a reverse of WI/PA/FL 2016.
I can't see such an effect happening in GA or TX, and even if Biden somehow won those, the GOP would hold the Senate seats there regardless.

Texas seems to be a different situation entirely.  I could just barely see something like this in a polls were wrong scenario (think 2000 where everyone was focused on the wrong states):

[Mr. Smith]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

[Vern]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

[Skill and Chance]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

[Lechasseur]

Out of these Southern non-Florida states, I think the order of flipping is pretty clear: NC>GA>TX

North Carolina obviously flips first for the reasons JRP1994 mentioned, then Georgia flips later of Biden is doing well enough, and then if Texas flips it means both NC and GA already flipped. That being said, the only one of these 3 I realistically see flipping in 2020 is North Carolina.

And on top of that, I could very well see Cooper carrying Biden and Cunningham in North Carolina this year. I think it may well be a reverse of WI/PA/FL 2016.
I can't see such an effect happening in GA or TX, and even if Biden somehow won those, the GOP would hold the Senate seats there regardless.

Texas seems to be a different situation entirely.  I could just barely see something like this in a polls were wrong scenario (think 2000 where everyone was focused on the wrong states):

What do you mean by Texas is a completely different situation entirely? How so?

[Vern]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

Yes, which took away from the Republican vote total. Johnson votes more than likely would have voted for a different Republican candidate than Trump. The Democrat vote totally in GA hasn't changed, it was the Republican vote totally that did. That leads me to believe that around 45ish is currently the top end of what the Dems can get in GA.

[Skill and Chance]

Out of these Southern non-Florida states, I think the order of flipping is pretty clear: NC>GA>TX

North Carolina obviously flips first for the reasons JRP1994 mentioned, then Georgia flips later of Biden is doing well enough, and then if Texas flips it means both NC and GA already flipped. That being said, the only one of these 3 I realistically see flipping in 2020 is North Carolina.

And on top of that, I could very well see Cooper carrying Biden and Cunningham in North Carolina this year. I think it may well be a reverse of WI/PA/FL 2016.
I can't see such an effect happening in GA or TX, and even if Biden somehow won those, the GOP would hold the Senate seats there regardless.

Texas seems to be a different situation entirely.  I could just barely see something like this in a polls were wrong scenario (think 2000 where everyone was focused on the wrong states):

What do you mean by Texas is a completely different situation entirely? How so?

Texas is a question of whether a massive currently Lean R demographic (suburban white voters) will realign.  This is also true of Arizona, and for that matter, Kansas.  NC and GA are almost purely about demographic change and whether R margins with incoming retirees (NC) and D margins with incoming black voters (GA) hold into the medium/long run.  Texas has been majority-minority for decades and still votes Republican.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

Yes, which took away from the Republican vote total. Johnson votes more than likely would have voted for a different Republican candidate than Trump. The Democrat vote totally in GA hasn't changed, it was the Republican vote totally that did. That leads me to believe that around 45ish is currently the top end of what the Dems can get in GA.

Stacey Abrams would like a word.