PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[LabourJersey]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He was the popular mayor of Braddock, a small declining town near Pittsburgh. He was involved in trying to develop the town and created various program like urban farming, small art galleries, etc. So it's not like he's a complete political novice, though he is pretty untested on the federal level

[LabourJersey]

Can Kenyatta upset Fetterman somehow by running up margins in Eastern PA?

Most likely not, since Val Arkoosh will do reasonably well in the Philadelphia suburban counties and probably elsewhere in Eastern PA.

At this point I'd say that Arkoosh is the candidate more likely to beat Fetterman, though for now I think Fetterman is the favorite.

[LabourJersey]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

I don't think Fetterman is an electoral titan, but aesthetics are a pretty big part of politics these days, and not something you can completely dismiss in a crowded primary

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1463288539584647168?s=20

What are the odds that he polls at 10% or higher?

[LabourJersey]

People say his being Muslim and a Turk will harm him but will it?  I admit I don’t follow his show but I thought he was of some vague Eastern European ancestry.  I’m sure there will be a few people that vote against him based on his religion but I honestly don’t see that being the deciding factor in this election.

He does have to run in a Republican primary. His faith and ethnicity will absolutely, 100% be used against him.

Coupled with the fact that he's running a very moderate campaign, I really do not see him winning a GOP primary in this day and age.

[LabourJersey]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

[LabourJersey]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

[LabourJersey]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

But the reason why conservative base voters took to Trump, Larry Elder, Tim Scott, John James etc. was because they had one of 2 qualities: 1) they were actual supporters of staunch conservatives values, or 2) promised to appoint GOP judges/policies (in the case of Trump).

I watched the video and Oz doesn't seem to be portraying himself as a true-blue conservative Trump guy: his video seems far more suited for a general election message than a primary. And he's a wild card: it's unclear exactly what he believes in (which goes both ways). There are going to be people running against him in the primary, all to his right.

[LabourJersey]

I just don't get Oz.  Why did he want to do this?  Doesn't he have millions and all that fame and fortune from his work in television?  He just doesn't seem like the kind of person that would thrive in this very partisan, bitter environment, and he's aligning himself with the opposite kinds of people (rage-filled, culture war types) that made him famous.

I think he too is an awful fit for PA.  He should have just run in NJ.

I'm behind Fetterman 100%.  He actually feels like PA to me and should be representing it in the Senate.  Whether or not he can beat the terrible odds against being a D in a very anti-D year, I don't know.

He is basically still a resident of NJ, but the key point is that he would never win a Senate race in New Jersey as a Republican. I suppose he could be competitive in, say NJ-05 against Gottheimer but Oz obviously feels he deserves the status of a Senator.

[LabourJersey]

It's kind of interesting to compare this to the OH-11 special. They're obviously very different, but they have a number of similarities (Fetterman/Turner enter with significant progressive cred, huge name rec advantage, huge lead in polls, massive cash advantage, deranged KHive haters). However, Turner actually secured a number of important local endorsements, while Fetterman seems very hated by the PA Dem establishment. Nevertheless, Turner wasted her enormous lead while Fetterman remains far out ahead. Campaigns still matter, folks!

I don't think that's a good comparison. Fetterman won multiple elections as mayor and then Lt. Governor. He was progressive but made the right party connections the whole way. Turner just...didn't do that.

[LabourJersey]

It's kind of interesting to compare this to the OH-11 special. They're obviously very different, but they have a number of similarities (Fetterman/Turner enter with significant progressive cred, huge name rec advantage, huge lead in polls, massive cash advantage, deranged KHive haters). However, Turner actually secured a number of important local endorsements, while Fetterman seems very hated by the PA Dem establishment. Nevertheless, Turner wasted her enormous lead while Fetterman remains far out ahead. Campaigns still matter, folks!

I don't think that's a good comparison. Fetterman won multiple elections as mayor and then Lt. Governor. He was progressive but made the right party connections the whole way. Turner just...didn't do that.

Is it really fair to say he won LT Gov when he just rode the ticket with Wolf? I don't think Fetterman running for LT Gov impacted the margin of the ticket. Idk it kind of feels like saying Kamala Harris or Mike Pence have demonstrated a success at winning when they were carried by Biden and Trump respectively and had little impact on the outcome of the election.

In Pennsylvania Lt. Governors are nominated in a primary. Fetterman won in 2018 against multiple candidates (albeit a field where the Eastern PA candidates split their votes, but still)

[LabourJersey]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

Disagree. It won't change many votes, but there's a nice chunk of voters especially in the suburban areas that may be open to voting for someone like McCormick but who Barnette is way too far for them. PA has a large MAGA base, but they also have a large Republican base who isn't *very* far right and is closer to the center. Barnette may be a step too far for some of them.

I honestly think those voters would prefer Barnette to Oz, who is probably the Republican most likely to just throw away the seat. Besides, McCormick might underperform in some of the areas with residual Democratic strength (esp. in the West/Northeast), which would more than cancel out any 'suburban' strength he supposedly still has even after going hard right. His past just makes it incredibly easy for a candidate in the mold of Fetterman to run against him.

I think Barnette has 'surged' for a reason (despite being outspent 350-to-1 on TV), and it certainly speaks to Oz's and McCormick's weaknesses as candidates.

I don't disagree with your point here, but I do think people underestimate how different primary voters are from general election voters and the public at large. Primary voters are informed and intense. And this is especially apparent in the Republican party right now

[LabourJersey]

Let's go Barnette! Watching the incoming conservative race-baiting ("Will liberals call her potential election to the Senate historic?") is going to be entertaining. LOL.

Barnette would still have a 50/50 chance of winning so be careful what you wish for

Yeah, I would have hoped that by now Democrats realize that polarization is strong enough for even truly awful candidates to win competitive swing state races

[LabourJersey]

Is Dr. Oz changing his campaign attitude?

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1539590501975965697

Pivoting to the center (however unconvincingly) is a pretty common tactic, to be fair.

[LabourJersey]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

I don't think Fetterman's actual campaigned is as one-dimensional as you claim (his online campaign may seem that, but that's just one part of the whole campaign). But aside from that, why do you think carpetbagging won't hurt Oz that much? Do you just think partisanship is so strong that people don't care as much about actual home state ties?

Cause I would agree that it's not campaign-ending, but Oz's carpetbagging is shameless to a degree that it warrants all of the mockery coming his way.