2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[LabourJersey]

Say, what happens to a rep when he or she loses his or her district to redistricting?

AOC could carpetbag any primary race in NYC and win easily IMO. She's adored here.

There's no need to carpetbag, even. She could run against whichever incumbent gets merged into her district. She has plenty of money and name recognition; she could win a primary in an altered NYC district.

[LabourJersey]

I'm genuinely surprised we haven't seen anybody predicting that Trump will win the popular vote. 

Because he won't?

[LabourJersey]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but there is seriously something not right about the "precincts reporting" %s that are being listed. Fairfax City is reportedly almost all in, but also barely shows 3,000 votes after casting 7,367 in 2016. If that number is wrong across multiple counties in multiple states, there is something big we are missing.

Which states is this true for?

[LabourJersey]

I think it's very very clear that the procedure for declaring how mail vote-by-mail ballots is unclear and varies wildly state to state.

I still think Biden is definitely going to win (Sabato's map might prevail???) but it'll be a long night.

I have work at 7AM tm--this may not be fun

[LabourJersey]

Again though: is this not the point in 2018 when people said no blue wave and then...?

FL appears to still be an isolated incident?

Like in OH, was Hillary still up double digits with 50% of the vote in?

Yeah, I do remember it wasn't clear how good 2018 was until after 11.

Let's hope it becomes a better picture for Dems before 11 at the least.

I still think Biden will win in the midwest but I still feel nervy. But I did feel nervy early on in 2018 too

[LabourJersey]

Lehigh County has to be a mistake right? NYT is saying 98% in with Biden ahead 81-19

CNN is saying the same thing but with only 95% instead of 98%. Still, it has to be a bug.

Possible that Lehigh has only counted mail-in ballots and are 95% done with those?

But even then that seems wild

[LabourJersey]

The socialist messaging has had an outsized impact on SOME Latinos. That seems evident.

But...who thinks Biden is a socialist?

Did people just convince themselves that AOC would be some kind of shadow leader of the country?

[LabourJersey]

Even if Biden comes up short by, say, 2 points in Texas, it's clear he's going to win a majority of the popular vote.

Couple that with how well he'll do in California, Colorado, etc. It's not hard to imagine him getting 52% of the vote while still losing FL, GA.

[LabourJersey]

Almost none of NOVA is in per CNN.

Calm down about Virginia, people!

[LabourJersey]

Remember usually the leader at 10PM wins

We've never seen an election like this before!

100 million votes cast their ballots before election day! states have *wildly* different means and timelines for counting them!

Adages like that don't matter! It's still relatively early!

[LabourJersey]

On a more philosophical note, I think one of the sadder things about this election and 2016 is how pessimistic Americans have become.

I guess it's for very good reasons, but it's sad to see

[LabourJersey]

I think GA is likely Trump, but the votes are still there for a Biden win. If you look at the metro ATL swings in Cherokee and Fayette, they are enough to give him the state if replicated in the partially reporting counties.

georgia is more disappointing than fl for dems

Again, a lot of Fulton County ballot haven't been counted!

[LabourJersey]

Douglas County in North WI is 100% counted.

Trump +8.5

2016: Hillary +7.5

Does...this include mail-in ballots?

[LabourJersey]

Douglas County in North WI is 100% counted.

Trump +8.5

2016: Hillary +7.5

Does...this include mail-in ballots?

NY times says it's only 61% reported... so...

Boggles my mind how some sites/results pages have such wildly different ideas of how to classify votes.

I hope going forward there's some standardizing in how to county and tally VBM. But of course the GOP won't do that easily.

[LabourJersey]

If that's the case then Biden should win Georgia

What are the chances that Ossoff is carried across the finish line?

If Biden wins Georgia then Perdue's seat is going to a runoff

I think this may actually work in favor for the Democrats. Having Ossoff & Warnock running together to win control of the Senate for the Democrats and having almost two months to campaign is a big deal. Also new voters can register by December 7th to vote in the Runoff Elections. It seems like Sleepy Joe has awakened. LOL

Also trying to figure out who would be excited about going to the polls to vote Perdue/Loeffler

Loeffler especially. She's totally alienated moderates.

[LabourJersey]

Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

La Follette was far and away the best candidate that year.

[LabourJersey]

John Fetterman is an icon.

John Fetterman is Pennsylvania's next senator.

I hope Tom Wolf gets a post in Biden's Cabinet (Commerce, maybe?) so we can have Governor Fetterman

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1324345726613229568?s=19

What? Is he gonna open another casino?

He has to pay off those debts by 2022 somehow!

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324440873816514561?s=20

how much would this effect the remaining ballots?

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1322944866377150465

Epic fail.

Can't decided what's the funniest element of this.

Minnesota Tilt R?

Virginia only Lean D?

But Georgia as Likely R is just too good to ignore

[LabourJersey]

The BBC's liveblog has just posted a - probably incomplete - list of world leaders who haven't congratulated Biden so far:


Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

North Korea: Kim Jong-un

Russia: Vladimir Putin

Saudi Arabia: Salman

China: Xi Jinping

Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Hungary: Viktor Orban


So, did all congratulations Biden has received so far come from non-dictators?

AMLO's not a dictator.

[LabourJersey]

One amazing take away from this election is that many Americans don't know how any of this process works from registering to voting to counting. Or they do and prefer to martial conspiracy ahead of basic civics.

The fragmentation of election systems in this country does a tremendous amount of harm to people's confidence in government.

I'm increasingly convinced we absolutely need a uniform set of standards for registration, for counting and for recounts across all states. And also probably consolidate the number of elections at the state/local levels too.