LabourJersey
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,239
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« on: May 26, 2020, 01:53:24 PM » |
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Redistricting means that Democrats can probably consolidate most of their 2018 pickups in NJ, NY, IL, PA, and maybe MI and a few other states.
I think also polarization is going to be so strong that we won't see a 2010 or 1994-style wave. both those waves occurred because there were huge swathes of Democratic congresspeople who represented districts that had trended sharply away from their party. That's not going to be the case (at least not probably?) so I don't see a 60 seat net gain.
Republicans could certainly win the House if Biden is unpopular, no question. But they won't get to anything like 240 seats.
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