If Biden wins in 2020, how will 2022 midterms look like?

[Suburbia]

The ruling president's party loses Senate, House and governors elections during the first two years, the midterm.

1982, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014 and recently 2018 was not good for the past presidents.

1990, 1998, 2002 was mixed results.

1978 was the last time a Democratic president saw maintained control of the House and Senate, despite GOP gains (notable GOP members elected in '78 include Gingrich, Cohen, and Cochran).

If Biden wins in 2020, will 2022 be a 1978, so he can continue repairing Trump's damage, or will it be a 1994 or 2010 if the GOP retools and the Democratic base balks at slow work?

[ProgressiveModerate]

1998, house flips, but PV isn't a 10 point margin like 2018. It'll be an R wave year, but the Rs won't have too many targets, so it'll be anything from R+3 to D+1 in the senate, but it won't be like when Rs gain 5-10 senate seats in a midterm

[brucejoel99]

2018, which proved that being the party out of the White House doesn't guarantee you'll win big if you have an unfavorable map/the fundamentals of each state are too difficult to overcome. Luckily for the Democrats, the GOP will be in the same boat in 2022 as the Democrats were in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

[TML]

If Biden has a relatively high approval rating (like Bush did in 2002), Democrats will probably retain control of whichever chamber(s) they already have control in.

If he is relatively unpopular, then it is highly likely that Democrats will give up control in at least one chamber.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They will be bad.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not good for Dems. The GOP regains the house and Kelly and Hassan will lose their Senate seats to Ducey and Sununu.

[Mr. Smith]

Real bad.

Ultimately not worth the 2020 win, especially if the downballot lacks power.

[Suburbia]

Real bad.

Ultimately not worth the 2020 win, especially if the downballot lacks power.

1995-1996, Clinton triangulates, signs Welfare Reform. He wins centrist voters and keeps the left base, despite Nader being on the ballot.

2011-2012, Obama signs budget deals, etc, wins centrist voters and keeps the left base.

Carter failed to build relations with Congress despite being a governor.

[Rjjr77]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

Tim Ryan is not some beloved figure in Ohio, hes a pretty blah dude with little statewide recognition. Portman is one of the most impressive campaigners in recent Ohio history, short a scandal theres not a D in the state who can touch him.

[brucejoel99]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

Tim Ryan is not some beloved figure in Ohio, hes a pretty blah dude with little statewide recognition. Portman is one of the most impressive campaigners in recent Ohio history, short a scandal theres not a D in the state who can touch him.

Why are you arguing with olawakandi?

[Rjjr77]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

Tim Ryan is not some beloved figure in Ohio, hes a pretty blah dude with little statewide recognition. Portman is one of the most impressive campaigners in recent Ohio history, short a scandal theres not a D in the state who can touch him.

Why are you arguing with olawakandi?

Same reason why I signed in after a 2 year layoff. Boredom and Exhaustion.

[brucejoel99]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

Tim Ryan is not some beloved figure in Ohio, hes a pretty blah dude with little statewide recognition. Portman is one of the most impressive campaigners in recent Ohio history, short a scandal theres not a D in the state who can touch him.

Why are you arguing with olawakandi?

Same reason why I signed in after a 2 year layoff. Boredom and Exhaustion.

Lol fair enough

[😥]

2002

[Joseph Cao]

Going off the last few midterm cycles, the House would be pretty bad for Democrats. Republicans would gain the vast majority of Democratic-held House seats that voted for Trump, potentially even toppling longer-serving incumbents like Matt Cartwright. 2022 will be a redistricting cycle and, depending on how aggressive the GOP gets, you might also have to say goodbye to the Jim Coopers and Emmanuel Cleavers of the world.

The Senate is more of a wash since (again, based on the last few midterm cycles) Senate results tend to track closely with the results of the last presidential election, except in the cases of Jon Tester-tier senators who have particularly good relationships with their electorates. With that in mind, if Biden wins in 2020 there will be at least a couple of GOP senators sitting in states that Biden won. Toomey is almost certain to be in this category, as are (potentially) Johnson, Rubio, and the open seat in North Carolina. Not all of them will lose re-election, of course, but at least one or two of them, which should be enough to make up for potential losses by Kelly, Warnock and/or (potentially) Hassan or (unlikely but possible) CCM.

So, probably: Democrats lose the House but the Senate composition barely changes – which is not the same as saying it won't flip, of course, since control of the Senate after 2020 has the potential to be quite narrow in either direction.

[President Johnson]

1998. I don't think he would face that big of a backlash. The Democrats might even keep the senate even or have 1-2 net pickups. Senate and House could actually swing in different directions like 2018, what mainly can be explained by the senate map.

[ElectionsGuy]

2018, but reversed in parties. The Senate might be a break-even, or only slight gain or loss. The house will suffer lots of losses, but possibly less than normal because of redistricting. It's closest to a 1982 scenario only with a Dem president.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I love how everyone is making pronouncements about House control forgetting the fact that this will be a redistricting cycle.

[Frenchrepublican]

I love how everyone is making pronouncements about House control forgetting the fact that this will be a redistricting cycle.

Yeah, that will be a big factor especially with more D friendly maps in MI/PA/VA/NY

[Frenchrepublican]

In terms of PV like 2014, republicans win the Congressional vote by around 5 to 6 points, it's enough to retake the House even with D friendly maps in VA/MI/NY/PA and maybe MN but I would not predict at the moment any kind of numbers.

As for the Senate, it will mostly depends of who the republican challengers are, for example in AZ Ducey would be probably favoured over Kelly, but does he will run ? Hard to tell.
Same thing in NH, does Sununu runs ?
Toomey will be vulnerable no matter what but unless Wolf is his opponent he should prevail.

[SnowLabrador]

A bloodbath for Democrats.

[Woody]

Absolute slaughterfest. States like MD and VT could be competitive in the senatorial level with Hogan/Scott. It would be 2010/1994 again.

[Mr.Phips]

Absolute slaughterfest. States like MD and VT could be competitive in the senatorial level with Hogan/Scott. It would be 2010/1994 again.

MD and VT are not voting Republican for Senate even in a 1994/2010 style wave.

[windjammer]

AZ, NH, NV would be in play. It depends on the republican recruits obviously.

[ProgressiveModerate]

OH, WI looks winnable, any Dem can win in WI in an open seat and Tim Ryan will get full backing from Biden to challenge Portman.

Toomey, Burr, Hassan and Kelly will face competetive,  but will easily win

D+2

PLEASE STO TREATING TIM RYAN LIKE THIS BELOVED POLITICIAN IN OH! If he runs, I gurentee you he'll lose to Portman in 2022, it wont be close.