Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1505260968829403136?s=21

If they'd just given Hamilton county a seat and left everything else the same, they probably would've gotten away with it. Now D's are likely getting that plus a second Columbus seat.

 

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

They can't use the old map anyway due to population changes, but least change is a metric even when the number of districts change, it is just less least change. A federal court would presumably use a special master or masters to draw the map.

[Torie]

For those who know and remember, unlike me, does the Ohio Supreme Court have the power to draw a CD map itself, or does it just have the power to hold everyone in contempt who does not do its bidding?

If it does not have the power to draw its own map, then it seems to me that if someone won't draw the map for them, then it goes to the federal court to draw a map because of the equal population requirement and then subject to what it thinks is state law, it draws a least change map based on the existing Pub gerrymandered map, that is good until the legislature draws a map that the state supreme court upholds.

What am I missing here?

I'm not sure. If the could have drawn their own map, I would have expected them to when they struck the first map down. I don't see why they'd suddenly have that power now.

They technically can't just use the old map because OH lost a district, but in theory I could see federal courts ordering them to use a commission map just for one cycle. Especially if courts order the recently tossed out legislative maps to be used because "there's not enough time" before the primary.

No the court can't draw the map after the 1st try.

What do you mean?

The court can only take over once they strike the maps down twice not just once.

Thanks for the answer. It makes sense now.

[Torie]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

[Torie]

Ohio is getting more and more absurd. They are now splitting precincts to fix partisan balance. Everyone should know why this is absurd.

If this isn't laser eye gerrymandering I don't know what is.

Michigan already did this as it sliced and diced Ann Arbor to spread out the Dem mother load.

No this is even further, this is going by precicnt splitting . Michigan merely split cities to get Joe biden to win 60% of senate seats.

Must be big precincts. Not sure why the commission is going there. Just say we can't do it, you do it, throw us in jail, whatever. If you can't do it, that is why God invented federal courts to step in when state courts prove a fail. Have a nice day.

[Torie]

TBH, it's fine if this map is used for 2022. The House is probably gone anyway. As long as they get a fair map in place for 2024 before O'Connor is replaced by a fascist I'll be happy

A court drawn map has no half life at all. If a map is enacted into law later that is upheld, it replaces what the court did. So O'Connor causes a map to be drawn sometime in 2022 that would be used in 2024 elections. She retires at the end of 2022, and a more partisan Pub Justice replaces her. The legislature passes a new map for the 2024 elections in 2023. In such event, the O'Connor map is never used at all.

The above is what I think is right. But maybe I am missing something.

[Torie]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

[Torie]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

You want to post a link to you map? I can make the case that that ridiculous CD is foolish, even if the Ohio supremes go hack city on steroids. The silver bullet is to give the Dems the Cinci cd. At this point they should just leave the current mess alone, and snatch back OH-09 and OH-13. Pity that both districts might then nominate bat sh**t crazies like OH-09 did this time.

[Torie]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

[Torie]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

At the end of the day Cinci HAS to be kept whole so in order to drag it north, it has to take in some other swingy Hamilton Suburbs which would make it a left-shifting suburban Biden district sort of like the current config

To keep Cinci in a narrow stagnant Trump district you have to pair it with eastern rurals

Yeah, the go north plan is in fact a fail so praise the Lord on that. But the go east plan is also a fail, as the link to the depopulating rurals vis higher SES suburbs will also have a short half life, and all of this is a poster child as to just why it is all just so wrong, when the law says no.

[Torie]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

At the end of the day Cinci HAS to be kept whole so in order to drag it north, it has to take in some other swingy Hamilton Suburbs which would make it a left-shifting suburban Biden district sort of like the current config

To keep Cinci in a narrow stagnant Trump district you have to pair it with eastern rurals

Yeah, the go north plan is in fact a fail so praise the Lord on that. But the go east plan is also a fail, as the link to the depopulating rurals vis higher SES suburbs will also have a short half life, and all of this is a poster child as to just why it is all just so wrong, when the law says no.

That district would be illegal because it either has to be nested entirely within a county or take in an entire county. No way to avoid Oxford, but it's pretty small at the end of the day

OK, so it becomes a bit more of a fail to fix that, from it's already fail status.

[Torie]

Any whole county will do, not one that is next to Cincy I guess as long as it does not increase county chops in total for the state due to the "traveling" chop, in this case through Butler. They call that in the legal trade a circumvention of the law. I assume that there is a requirement to minimize the total county splits in the state right?

[Torie]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

[Torie]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yes, there will be something put on the ballot. The former chief justice will lead the charge. But it has to pass. Not taking a semi-reasonable offer won't help. The Pubs getting more greedy will help.

[Torie]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Albeit illegal. You quin-chopped Franklin County, when only a tri-chop is allowed. Aside from the stricture of not unduly favoring one party, it is possible to hold the Dems to but 2 seats by putting Cincy with a sliver of Hamilton and a slice of Butler, and then run the CD along the western state line as long as it takes to fill out the population. Your map actually drew a swing CD going Dem. Any of the members of any court which would vote to uphold such map would destroy their professional reputations, but as long as it is only with the opposite party, that seems more and more common. Chaps in robes screwing the other party has far more potential to make them into folk hero icons.

[Torie]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do. Tri-chopping Franklin is mandatory, so that required work to make it pretty and generate talking points/excuses/fig leafs for the OSC about non partisan justifications, while hewing to the all the technical constraints, of which there are several.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

[Torie]

All valid points no doubt, and I have no idea where these critters live. Bowling Green is a suburban place with Lucas. They belong together. You accommodate all these incumbents, and how many talking points will be left, assuming you still want to hew to the keep it to three metric?

Btw, how well do you think this yellow camel thing depicted below that has Troy as the roof of its mouth hews to the "compact" constraint? Inquiring minds want to know. And if Troy and bits of Columbus are in one CD, how come different Congressmen live in each? I guess you meant the Troy southern burbs that are the mouth itself of the camel.

Remember what I said about how hackish state supreme courts have become? They really are a mess.

[Torie]

The damn document has the lame word “attempt” (that is really suck drafting), but point taken.

https://codes.ohio.gov/ohio-constitution/section-19.2

[Torie]

Researching where the rat bastard Pub incumbents live to tweak the  Pubmander just does not self actualize me. I note that Pub incumbents need only live in the state, not the district, per the US Constitution. In NYS, a bunch of incumbents were bounced from where their home is per the Cervas redraw, who cared about where incumbents live just as much as I did - the null set. Nobody cared in the ensuing election where the politicians lived. Those reelected now live outside the district and love it. It actually turned out that some lived outside their district before the redraw, as the NY Post tabloid pointed out with glee. Nobody cared about that either.

[Torie]

Here is the map to make Mr. X happy, bless him.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b250bbec-7ac8-4583-9128-cb117464b24d

[Torie]

So what would the map look like if it was independently-drawn and didn’t take incumbent demands into account?

I did this one long ago, which fixates on hewing to MSA area lines, and putting as much of Columbus in one CD as possible. It was done before the census figures were available, so I adjusted the lines for that data today it caused some adjustment.

The Pubs won’t be drawing this puppy. Independent bodies tend not to be as focused on MSA's.  It is a good way through to try to drain more subjectivity out of the process.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

[Torie]

The metric ignores partisan effects (proportionality) except as a tie breaker. Let the chips fall where they may.

But hey, you though my NYS map was too Pub when it really was proportional (slight bias to the Dems in fact where the vote share percentages were realistic), all the way up and down the line. After the fact, I proved that to Cervas, using his own metric as stated in his academic articles and to me personally.

[Torie]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

[Torie]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I think any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

I'd agree.  Any computer that draws an arm going from Lake County down to Medina County is definitely not some "divinely neutral" system.

You just don't like the MSA suburban wrap around concept as much as the computer algorithm does. The beauty of a thing can sometimes be subtle.