What is more likely to happen in Florida?

[2016]

Trump wins the state by double digits. In fact, I think this will happen.

It will not be double digits BUT it's almost guaranteed it will be by more than 2020.

The User EastwoodS, who I am trusting the most, pegged it at 7.5 Percentage Points during his GE Prediction. That seems reasonable to me.

All things considered Republicans will have a 500,000+ Turnout Advantage in FL, maybe even more come E-Day 2024.

[2016]

Biden’s path to victory here:

College whites: D +14
Non-college whites: R +35
Hispanics/Other: D +0
Black: D +70
Overall: D +0.15

Biden absolutely has ZERO Path to Victory. There are more Republicans living in the State compared to 2020 and assuming if Trump is the Nominee and they show up to vote REPUBLICANS win the State.

Democrats relying on Republicans to stay home in 2024 in FL so they can win the State and that won't happen.

[2016]

Riverwalk, are you sure you aren’t at least a little biased with your FL predictions because the FL Democrats are the only non-GOP candidates you’ve endorsed in your signature?

he just wants to be edgy and trendy.

The funny thing is that your own predictions imply Florida trending left relative to the popular vote from 7.8 to the right of the nation to 6.5 to the right of the nation (though I doubt Trump wins the PV by 1 with the state margins you suggest unless California is D +15).

oh, so, now you acknowledge Fl is 8 points right of the nation.

Florida is 8 Points right to the Nation. I love you Eastwood & Devils as well putting riverwalk back his basement with his obscure & preposterous Predictions.
Matthew Isbell & Steve Schale, both Democrats btw, say FL is gone for D's in 2024 and 2026 as well and these guys would not say that lightly as they have decades of experience in the Sunshine State. They know their State very well!

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

[2016]

And Sabato has Florida as Likely R in 2024

It's not an R+3 State anymore Olowakandi, it's a R+8 State now.

[2016]

@seskoog,
You think he can carry Hillsborough? That will be tough but then D's losing Voters even in blueish Counties in FL like H'Borough, Orange and Dade.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

Yeah, Trump lost 1-2 Percentage Points on average in Counties like Sarasota, Lee, Collier, etc. from 2016 to 2024 because of COVID19 I think. If he can improve those margins again then he does get the 6-9 Point range like you said.

Also, it depends how much DeSantis holding a grudge against Trump after the Primaries. DeSantis campaigned like a workhorse in 2020 for Trump.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I agree with the county map except for Duval and I'm 50/50 on Miami Dade. It could really do it's own thing.

The notion by riverwalk that Trump got so close in Dade County because of Cuban COVID backslash is just blatantly false.

Let's be honest: The reason Trump cut the almost 300,000 margin in Dade to 86,000+ by 2020 wasn't a Cuban COVID Backslash, it was because Trump, the RNC and the Florida Republican Party "Relentlessly" hammered Biden and D's to be Socialists and guess what: It worked.

Biden now has a Record and what he did between 2021 and 2023 when he had all 3 branches of Govtm with the New Green Deal/Climate Change Crap/Inflation Reduction Act was pure disaster particularly for the South Florida Hispanics. Thank God that they had DeSantis instead of Gillum otherwise Florida would have rolled off the deep end.

The Green New Deal never passed, what did pass was a watered down and very moderate bill. The squad and Democratic socialists did untold damage to Florida Dems and will do even bigger damage to Dems nationwide if the party does not extinguish this pro-Hamas garbage.

Duval is culturally more like the rest of the south than Miami or Tampa. I would compare its trends more to Greensboro, Macon, Savannah, Charlotte and is clearly trending D. Dems won the mayor election earlier this year by same as Biden's +4 margin.

Even that watered down Bill hurt Hispanics in South Florida.
riverwalk just makes blatantly stupid accusations. While COVID may have hurt D's somewhat Trump, the RNC and the FL GOP relentless attacks labelling Biden as a socialist did the trick and damage in Miami-Dade.

Keep in mind while Dade County is 69 % Hispanic as a whole according to the 2020 Census only 40 % are Cubans. You don't get these Numbers Trump did in 2020 by just winning Cubans. Trump & GOP clearly made inroads in Dade County with other Hispanics like Nicaraguans, Colombians, Venezuelans, etc. and that continued into 2022.

[2016]

@EastwoodS & @Devils30,
What do you think?




Unsure about Duval County. However I am certain Trump will take back Pinellas (he only lost to Biden by a mere 1,000 Votes there in 2020) and Seminole County and if current trendlines hold Trump wins Miami-Dade by about 15,000 Votes or so.

I actually think Duval and Seminole stay blue. Both are trending Democratic and have more in common with suburban counties in other states than South Florida. Pinellas might stay blue because it is more like a WI PA MI big urban wwc heavy county than most Florida ones and growth is lower than rest of state, meaning fewer red transplants moving in. Biden for all the Ds faults with the WWC doesn’t seem terribly likely to slip much further with this group.

But it’s easy to get Trump the 6-9% win by flipping Miami-Dade red and running up numbers better in red transplant areas like Sarasota, Volusia, Brevard. Might also lose Broward and Palm Beach by less, Biden’s probably going to stop the bleeding a bit with Jewish Dems but these places are (slowly) trending R.

The counties you mentioned are full of college educated old whites. Why would you assume they swing further R? Flipping Miami-Dade only adds 0.7 to Trump’s margins and is more than cancelled out with the in the other urban counties you mentioned, and the Cuban thaw backlash/COVID are done now.

What do you think the demographic breakdown is for Trump to win FL by 9? Trump wins Hispanics by 20 and improves with college educated whites?

Trump lost Hispanics in FL 52-47 in 2020. He lost Puerto Ricans by over 50 Points in 2020. That's just not going to happen in 2024. I'll think he'll win the Hispanic Vote in FL this time.

Dade's Hispanic vote is so different from NV, AZ, TX Hispanic vote that is mostly of Mexican decent and much more Dem friendly. Of course TX Hispanics include a lot of 4th+ generation who are more conservative so Dems benefit less than in NV/AZ. Dade does its own thing, Trump could win it by 10 in a huge electoral vote loss or lose it by 10 and be competitive nationally. I would bet Dade is only 0-3% either way in 2024 though.

But I think Biden will win again with NV/AZ/GA/WI/MI/PA staying blue in an exact 2020 repeat. Republicans might be better losing 2024, they can face a weakened Kamala or get lucky if Dems pick an anti-Israel whacko. Of course the Dems could pick a Whitmer, Shapiro and really get it right if they want.

I am curious what happens in Counties like Yuma County (AZ) or the Rio Grande Valley in TX. If the Southern Border Crisis worsens that could be at least the ballgame for Biden in TX.
Trump actually increased his margin in Yuma County from 2016 to 2020. We'll see if that happens again.

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

[2016]

@Devils30 & @EastwoodS

The Cook Report similarly to Sabato has FLORIDA as Likely R in its new Electoral College Ratings published today.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings

Electoral College 2024 based on the Cook Report Ratings

Trump is going to win FL, it really looks like it is moving so far to the right it is simply uncompetitive. Biden has a better shot to win TX but I would only put that at around 20% or so. I would probably have NC at tossup/tilt R but demographics could give Biden a small win (will not be tipping point state).

Do you think Florida could be called at the closing of the Polls in 2024. The last time the Networks called FL at Poll Closing Time during a Presidential Race was in 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.

They can't call Florida by 7 pm since polls are open in the panhandle until 8 pm eastern but yes, at 8 I think they might be able to call FL this year. It counts fast and all of us who know numbers called it for Trump in 2020 by 7:45 pm or so.

I know but the Networks waited until shortly after 11pm (FOX NEWS) to call Florida for Trump. That was the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen having watched FL Returns over Decades.
I knew Trump would win FL when Miami came in and Trump was within 100K of Biden.