I would say either Texas or Florida cause the results in those races shape policy in other states and shape a national discussion far more than any other state the republicans would be likely to win in . Out of those id go Florida given DeSantis is a tier 1 presidential candidate while Abbott would be tier 3.
I would agree with you especially about Florida. I just can't see in my mind how DeSantis could lose his own Re-Election given what Crist did yesterday by voting for this sort of New Green Deal Part 2 which on top of it hired 87,000 IRS Agents.
Florida is surrounded by water. It thrives on its Small Business & Tourism Industry in the Summer and Winter Months. Those IRS Agents would be devastating for FL Small Business Community. Crists wants to enforce a Mask Mandate and wants to shut down the State again. FL has among the lowest Inflation Rates in the Country, it's Economy is booming, etc.
Those are all things DeSantis can run on.