The Presidency of America's Maverick

[2016]

This is going to be one hell of a Close Election I think. 2008 ain't like 1988 when George H. W. Bush made it three times in a row a Republican got elected to the White House.

I think Hillary Clinton will make life down in Florida very difficult for Senator Bush because of the AA & Hispanic Vote.

From 2000 to 2008 the Hispanic Vote in the Sunshine State, particularly in the I4-Corridor increased dramatically. Orange County, Hillsborough and Pinellas comes through my mind.

Looking at the Map Senator Hillary Clinton can actually win the Election without Ohio:

She has 179 right now. You add Florida (27), Virginia (13), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Oregon (7), Washington State (11), Pennsylvania (21) and New Jersey (15) she would be at 283.

And if she doesn't win Virginia she would drop down to 268 but could get there with either Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4) or Iowa (7).

Ohio & Virginia are MUST-WIN States for Bush and so are Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisiana.

[2016]

No matter how big of a bounce Senator George W. Bush gets I am pretty confident Democrats will win the Popular Vote this time. The first Female Presidential Nominee will likely create an even bigger Gender Gap then this TL had for 2000 & 2004 enabling Hillary to get the most Votes.

That being said it's far less certain she gets an Electoral Vote Victory. I feel this could be a split just like in the OTL in 2000.

Of Course we will have to see how President McCain handles the Lehman Brothers Collapse and how Senator Bush responds to it. Democrats definitly have the winds on their backs this time I feel.

Nightmare Scenario is we have an 269-269 Tie the Day after E-Day.

[2016]

@OSR,
I would have moved Minnesota into the Clinton Column as well. There is no way Hillary ain't going to win that State. It's a State that even Walter Mondale & Michael Dukakis managed to win in the OTL!

[2016]

@OSR,
I would have moved Minnesota into the Clinton Column as well. There is no way Hillary ain't going to win that State. It's a State that even Walter Mondale & Michael Dukakis managed to win in the OTL!

Keep in mind that pundits usually tend to overestimate the GOP in Minnesota and so does polling I believe as well. Atlas ITTL probably would be more accurate about what the tossup states are in relation to the national environment than CNN is.

You can just imagine how BRTD would be complaining on Atlas on how much CNN and the polls are overestimating Bush's chances in Minnesota

Keep in mind though that Bush won't win 44-45 % of the Hispanic Vote like he did in the OTL against Kerry in 2004 against Clinton in 2008 so I am a bit puzzled you have NM & NV as Toss Ups.

The Map is a lot tougher for Senator Bush than for Senator Clinton.

I think Clinton will eventually win MN, NM, NV, OR, PA and ME-2 which would give 259.

I think Bush will eventually win LA, KY, MO which would get him to 242. If he wins OH & IA like he did in 2004 that gets him to 269.

If Clinton wins Wisconsin guess what we have then, a 269-269 Tie.

I think 269-269 is legitimately in play here.

[2016]

OSR,
Good Update

Yeah, I think you are right: This is going to even out again and by E-Day we will have a close Race.

However I feel Hillary will use the Gender Gap to her Advantage meaning she will very likely win the Popular Vote and could have a narrower EC Win.

Typical from George W. Bush, being too aggressive. He never learns

[2016]

Prediction

President

Popular Vote

Hillary Clinton 49 %
George W. Bush 47 %
Nader 3 %
Others 1 %

Hillary Clinton 271 (ME-2, PA, OR, NM, WI)
George W. Bush 267 (OH, MO, KY)

Senate

Democrats 52
Republicans 48

Mitch McConnell gets reelected in Kentucky because of GWB coattails!
Hagan & Hunt win in North Carolina
Mark Warner wins in Virginia
The Udall Brothers get elected in CO & NM respectivly
New Hampshire John E. Sununu gets narrowly reelected
Stevens gets narrowly reelected in Alaska
Nikki Haley becomes a Senator and will be one of the youngest Senator in the entire Country.
Christine Todd Whitman will get reelected surprisingly in NJ. Democrats blame Buono to be a tremendous bad Candidate for that loss
Wicker will get elected in Mississippi

Beau Biden will get elected as Delaware Governor

House

Democrats 225
Republicans 210

The CNN Panel of Carville, Begala, Bob Bennett, Alex Castellanos will all agree that Hillary won because of the Gender Gap in Key Swing States.

Bennett repeats his famous quote from the OTL "Look, the Country has grown up here".

[2016]

One thing I am actually keenly interested this Election Night is what is Hillary Clinton going to do with College educated White Women.
PA and the Counties like Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery come into my mind.

John King correctly pointed out that Republicans trend to do well in the suburban collar counties around Philly but if Hillary overperforms with this Demographic that could be the ballgame in PA and elsewhere because you find those types of Voters in suburban St. Louis & Kansas City and also in Delaware County just outside of Columbus, Ohio.

Kentucky, although I firmly believe Bush will take it, will be a lot closer compared to the OTL when Bush beat Gore and Kerry there comfortably. What are the margins in Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort). How well will Hillary do in the eastern Counties in Kentucky along the West Virginia Border given Senator Rockefeller is her Running Mate?

 Bush I think will do very well in Western Kentucky which will end up giving him the State I think.

[2016]

This is going to be a very loooooong Night.

I have to say though Bush being tied with Clinton among Seniors is not good News for him.

However Clinton only getting 89 % of the African American Vote ain't good News for her.

The Hispanic Vote ticked up so maybe CNN moving NV to Bush could be a bit premature. Certainly good News for Hillary in New Mexico.

Let's see some Numbers from the States particularly the Swing States though.

Looking at it Nationally this is looking a lot like ala Bush vs Gore in 2000 in the OTL.

[2016]

McConnell going down in Kentucky is total disastrous News for Republicans. That means that KY at the Presidential Level is going to be decided by less than 30,000 Votes much like Bunning/Mongiardo Race in the OTL in 2004.

The Bush Camp must be nervous what might be unfolding not only in Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort) BUT also what might unfold in Ohio next door.

The Cincinnati Suburbs (Hamilton County) in particular.

However what should make the Clinton Camp nervous that the Networks haven't called West Virginia at the Presidential Level!

Also the KY loss massivly has changed the Senate Landscape. If Democrats winning in KY there is no reason to believe that they won't win in either Colorado and New Mexico.

While it's still very early Republicans have to win in some Blue State.

Looks like Bush might hold a lot of States but Senate & House Republicans are going down to defeat.

[2016]

At the moment this whole Election is about Ohio & Pennsylvania.

If either Side wins both States they are going to be the next President; If they split those which currently I think is the most likely Scenario then we have to look at Wisconsin, Missouri, New Mexico and Oregon.

Thus far Bush has won the Lean States of Florida, Virginia & New Hampshire while Clinton has won the Lean States of West Virginia (no surprise as Senator Rockefeller is her Running Mate) and New Jersey with New Jersey being a flip from 4 years ago.

Kentucky is the only true Toss Up at this Hour that has gone to Bush and only very narrowly.

The early New Jersey Call though may tell us something what might happen in Southeastern Pennsylvania. While John King is right that Democrats pull most of the Votes in PA from Philly & Pittsburgh Presidential Elections in States like PA are increasingly decided in the Suburbs.

If I was Bush I'd be worried about the Collar Counties around Philly given the early New Jersey Call for Clinton.

The closeness of the Kentucky Race bodes ill for Bush in Southwestern Ohio particularly the Cincinnati Suburbs (Hamilton County). While Bush might still win Hamilton Clinton ain't get clobbered like Biden did there four years ago.

Although it's very early I have Clinton narrowly favoured winning the Electoral College either with 271 Electoral College Votes or excatly 270 depending on Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

All what she needs to do is winning Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin + the Overall State of Maine & 1st District (those 3 EC Votes leaning her way).

I also don't think Ralph Nader will be a Spoiler in OR & WI like he was for Gore in the OTL.

Bush has to win at least one of the Dukakis States to win the Presidency.

[2016]

A couple of thoughts on the Senate Races:
CNN not having called the New Jersey Race despite Clinton winning it on the Presidential Level is good News for the Republican Christine Todd Whitman.
On the flip side North Carolina not be called between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole despite Bush winning there is bad News for Dole.

Ohio where Bush is apparently up 5 will tighten somewhat if there is still vote out in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Lucas (Toledo) and Franklin (Columbus).

James Carville is correctly pointing out that Bush isn't going to offset the margins Clinton is getting in the collar counties around Philly with what he gets out of northeastern PA so Pennsylvania is indeed tilting towards Hillary.

[2016]

OSR,
I wonder if you bring in Donald Trump or Barack Obama into the CNN Election Center during the 10pm or 11pm ET Hour. My guess is Obama is Home in Illinois while Trump is in New York.

Trump is probably going to argue that he would have put Ohio & Pennsylvania away already. He is probably also going to say something like this "Look, I like the Clintons. It's obviously very close right now but I am optimistic Hillary will pull this out".

[2016]

I think New Jersey will be the tightest of the Senate Races. The Democratic Candidate Barbara Buono is just not a great Senate Recruit while Christine Todd Whitman has been a great Republican Senator.

Elizabeth Dole losing in North Carolina and possibly Ted Stevens in Alaska are self-inflicted, Dole because she barely spent time in the State and Stevens because of his corruption charges.

I also think CNN & John King (I know he doesn't want to hear this) made a mistake 24 Hours before the Election by moving Nevada into Lean Bush. Hillary winning nationally 56-39 among Hispanics. If you extrapolate from that NV looks more like a Toss Up to me and New Mexico more like Lean Clinton.

Hillary doesn't need Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

If she as expected wins California, Hawaii, Washington State, Iowa (which were all Safe Clinton or Lean Clinton) + picks up Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (She seems now favoured in PA given the outstanding Vote) she gets excatly to 270 Electoral College Votes.

We probably are going to have to wait until the wee hours of the Morning before we have a Decision and if it's really that close I fear Bush might contest the Election.

Depends on how close the Individual States are but there could be some Recounts and the Nation will have to wait a little longer.

[2016]

If I were a Clinton Campaign Adviser I would definitly challenge the early Nevada Call. That seems very suspicious to me. They called that State awfully early. Do they know that it usually takes some time to count the Votes in Clark County (Las Vegas)?

If Dane County (Madison) and Milwaukee County (remember that's the City & County) is still out Hillary is in good shape in Wisconsin.

I am noticing a trend though: Clinton is doing very, very well in the Suburbs in pretty much every Battleground State and I mean considerably better than Biden in 2004. That should be making the Bush Camp very nervous. That suburban Vote in St. Louis & Kansas City are very alarming for Bush and very good for her.

269-269 would be an absolute Nightmare Scenario. If that happens we won't know the Result until January.

[2016]

You got to be kidding me!
I had a sense that Missouri & Wisconsin were going for Clinton given how well she did in the Suburbs.

New Mexico though is a big disappointment given that Democrat Bill Richardson is Governor there.

The Clinton Campaign has some tough Questions to answer why her 56-39 lead nationally among Hispanics did not translate into a win in States like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

[2016]

You got to be kidding me!
I had a sense that Missouri & Wisconsin were going for Clinton given how well she did in the Suburbs.

New Mexico though is a big disappointment given that Democrat Bill Richardson is Governor there.

The Clinton Campaign has some tough Questions to answer why her 56-39 lead nationally among Hispanics did not translate into a win in States like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Keep in mind 56-39 is still not that great for a democrat with Hispanics. Keep in mind Bush is still over performing McCain 2000 in terms of Margins with Hispanics (who lost by 20 vs 17) and another thing to keep in mind is the Nader effect as hurt Clinton out in the West which is why she is not overperforming Biden in the West as in other regions.

Nader is only a factor in Oregon.
Hillary won California overwhelmingly which why my Prediction of the Popular Vote ( I predicted 49-47 Clinton) won't be far off.
So Hillary will win the Popular Vote by about 1.5 to 1.7M Votes but might lose the Election in the House.
INSANE!!!

If all what's left in Missouri is the remaining Precincts of St. Louis City then Hillary will have a 20.000-30.000 Vote lead in the State once those Precincts are counted.

Edit: And I called it. Easy win for Clinton in Missouri.
Interesting that all of the contested Battlegrounds are outside Recount Territory, way different compared to the 2000 OTL Florida Vote.

[2016]

I can't wait what both Candidates going to say to their Supporters the Morning after Election Day! Probably Clinton will say whoever wins the Popular Vote should be the next President and Hillary seems to be favoured for that.

[2016]

I hope Hillary Clinton gets confirmed as President eventually.

Assuming the Financial Crisis strikes some time in 2009 I trust her a whole lot more than I trust Bush to get us out of it given that Dubya monkied up the Nations Economy in the OTL.

And Senator Bush declaring his Ticket has more crossover appeal is just laughable. You are no John McCain Senator.

Naming Cabinet picks especially for the State, Defense, Homeland Security, Attorney General, NSA, etc. seems reasonable to me given the times we are living in.

[2016]

Is Giuliani the Governor of New York?

Yes

Going to be really interesting what Donald Trump does. He could either run for New York City Mayor in 2009 or New York Governor challenging Giuliani in 2010.

I btw think Hillary Clinton will eventually assume the Office of the Presidency in January!

[2016]

I think Hillary Clinton/Jay Rockefeller/Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid and John A. Boehner would work just fine as a Government. Big uncertain thing is a Hardliner like designated Senate Minority Leader Jon Kyl. The Guy will stop everything even if that means no Enonomic Recovery.

[2016]

OSR,
Question: Which State has the State Delagation, that is tied?

[2016]

If Congress denies Hillary Clinton the Presidency having gotten substantial more Votes on the Popular Vote, more than Al Gore got in the OTL in 2000 that would make governing pretty hard.

[2016]

Given the close Presidential Election a thought should be given to amend the constitution to hold a 2nd Contigent Election where the Popular Vote Winner is elected if the Electoral Vote is a TIE and no one receives a Majority of State Delegations in the House.

It would only be fair to do this so if there is by some accident another Electoral Vote Tie in future Elections & and no one receives a Majority in the House Delegations the Popular Vote Winner will be declared the Winner of the Presidential Election.

[2016]

Rep. Mike Castle did absolutely the right thing here. Delaware is a big Blue State and has shifted more Democratic for the last 20 years since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988.

Tough for Senator Bush but he will still be a Senator from Texas and although there are lots of differences between him and Senator Clinton there are also a lot of things they can both work on.

I suspect the last Post for this TL will be President McCains Farewell Press Conference and after that OSR will likely switch to the new TL.

Maybe he calls it Madame President.

[2016]

I sincerely hope that both Candidates bring the Country together in their Concession (Bush) and Victory (Clinton) Speeches.

Hillary needs all the help she can get given the uncertain times (two Wars) we are living in during this TL!